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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/28/video-weather-more-of-a-trick-vs-treat-this-halloween-cold-open-to-november/
Oct 27
Harvest ’19: Tracking Another Significant Storm This Week…
*Starting November 1st, our weekly agriculture and harvest updates will transition to weekly winter storm outlooks. We’ll maintain a lot of the feedback y’all have provided with the new weekly winter products. Come next growing season, the weekly agriculture and severe weather updates will return.
Forecast Period: 10.27.19 through 11.03.19
7-Day Precipitation: Average average precipitation is expected through the period.
7-Day Temperatures: Once the forecast period is said and done, below average temperatures can be expected, overall.
Severe Weather: Organized severe weather isn’t expected during the period.
Frost/ Freeze: The first frost and freeze of the fall season will likely take place next weekend across portions of the Deep South.
Drought Monitor: The latest drought monitor (taken before Friday and Saturday’s rain) shows abnormally dry/ drought conditions in place across southern IN into central OH. Thankfully, a long-term drought isn’t expected here. The pattern not only at present, but throughout the upcoming winter will feature plentiful precipitation, erasing any of the abnormally dry conditions that are currently in place.
Summary: We’re monitoring a couple of storm systems this week. The first system will scoot by to our northwest with a band of rain and snow from KS, IA, and into IL and WI during the early part of the work week. A second, stronger system will impact the region Wednesday into Friday. Another wind-driven rain will be the result, locally, Wednesday into Thursday before sharply colder air arrives to close the work week. The air will grow cold enough to support the potential of flurries or scattered snow showers late Thursday night into Friday. The first official freeze of the season is likely next weekend. Upcoming 7-day rainfall totals are expected to fall in the 0.75″ to 1.25″ range for most of immediate central Indiana.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/27/harvest-19-tracking-another-significant-storm-this-week/
Oct 26
VIDEO: Wet, Windy Saturday; Looking Ahead To Halloween And The Colder Pattern That Awaits…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/26/video-wet-windy-saturday-looking-ahead-to-halloween-and-the-colder-pattern-that-awaits/
Oct 25
VIDEO: Busy Time Of Things In The Good Ole Forecast Office…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/25/video-busy-time-of-things-in-the-good-ole-forecast-office/
Oct 24
VIDEO: Significant Fall Storm Brewing…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/24/video-significant-fall-storm-brewing/
Oct 23
VIDEO: Saturday Washout And Reasons To Buy The Cold Early November Idea; Winter ’19-’20 Chatter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/23/video-saturday-washout-and-reasons-to-buy-the-cold-early-november-idea-winter-19-20-chatter/
Oct 23
Rain Chances Going Up This Weekend; Taste Of Winter Blows Into Town Before Halloween…
Dry weather will prevail today and the majority of Thursday across central Indiana (a light passing shower is possible across northern Indiana, but this won’t be a big deal).
Scattered light showers are possible Thursday night into the day Friday, along with an increase in cloud cover, but again, significantly more dry time is anticipated than wet. Some won’t see a drop of rain Friday.
As we rumble into the weekend, a vigorous upper level low in Oklahoma will “bowl” east across Arkansas and then shoot northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday. (Hint, you may want to get used to this kind of storm track over the upcoming winter). This will result in increasing aerial coverage of rain Saturday.
Rain will exit off to the northeast Saturday night and a drier second half of the weekend is expected. By the time all is said and done, a solid 0.50″ to 1″ of rain is expected (we’re currently siding with a blend of the aggressive European and lighter GFS).
After a wet 1st half of the weekend, all eyes will be set on a taste of winter that’s dialed up just before Halloween. A cold front will blow through the Ohio Valley early next week with the threat of rain followed by sharply colder air. As upper level energy rounds the base of the digging significant trough, the first flakes of the season can be expected across the region before Halloween (still will have to fine tune timing). This pattern will also serve up the first accumulating lake effect snow event of the season, including the Snow Belt regions of IN, MI, and OH.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/23/rain-chances-going-up-this-weekend-taste-of-winter-blows-into-town-before-halloween/
Oct 22
Plot Thickens Around Halloween Into Early November…
As we look ahead to Halloween, the pattern continues to look mighty “interesting” to say the least. A deeply negative EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) will take the drivers seat and potentially lead to some early wintry “fun and games” as we close out the month and head into early November.
Ensemble data, centered on Halloween, is in excellent agreement with respect to the overall upper air pattern. That said there are subtle differences in the handling of the southeast ridge.
These seemingly subtle differences at 500mb can mean a world of difference in terms of the resulting weather we deal with here at the surface.
We’re confident there will be a rather significant weather event on or around Halloween, but caution we’re far from being able to provide details around the specifics. The early thinking is that a storm system provides a round of showers and thunderstorms just before the holiday with sharply colder conditions pouring into the area on Halloween, itself, with the threat of the first lake effect snow outbreak of the year heading into next weekend. Stay tuned. Run-to-run differences within the operational suites will be significant in the days ahead. It’s far too early to latch on to any one particular solution.
Regardless, with high latitude blocking in place, a colder than average period of weather is likely as we move through early November. The brunt of the cold, relative to normal, should be featured across the central Plains.
More on the longer range November pattern in the days ahead. Our official November Outlook will be posted over the weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/22/plot-thickens-around-halloween-into-early-november/
Oct 21
VIDEO: Sifting Through The Noise As We Close October And Open November…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/21/video-sifting-through-the-noise-as-we-close-october-and-open-november/
Oct 21
Wet, Windy, And Stormy Day Ahead…
A cold front will push across the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the front, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few of these storms may become strong to severe with damaging straight line winds being the biggest concern.
The Storm Prediction Center now includes portions of central Indiana in a ‘marginal’ risk for severe weather.
We expect a couple of rounds of storms today- one mid to late morning followed by another this evening directly ahead of the cold front.
Rain will end from west to east during the evening as the cold front sweeps across the state. Before that, some area rain gauges may accumulate around an inch of rain today (a few locally heavier totals possible).
The other headline today will be strong and gusty winds (originally out of the southwest before shifting to west this evening). Even outside of thunderstorms, gusts in excess of 40 MPH can be expected.
Drier and cooler air will arrive Tuesday through Thursday before another chilly, wet weather maker blows into town Thursday evening into Friday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/21/wet-windy-and-stormy-day-ahead/