Evening update: Looks like we’ll need to “beef” totals up a bit tmrw. We’ll watch overnight guidance but wouldn’t be surprised if we need to build in banding potential that may generate local 3”-4” amounts by Friday evening with tomorrow morning’s update.
A fast moving band of light rain will scoot across central IN mid-morning, but the bigger deal today will be the strong and gusty winds. Gusts upwards of 40 MPH can be expected at times. Hold onto your hats! Attention then will quickly shift to an area of light snow that will overspread the region Friday morning. While the unseasonably mild surface temperatures of late will prevent some of this snow from accumulating, a general 0.50″ to 2″ area-wide snow is expected.
More on the snow, a brief “jab” of arctic air and a look into the updated long range guidance in this morning’s Client video below:
Updated 02.14.24 @ 7:51a Plentiful sunshine will be with us as we move through our Valentine’s Day along with unseasonably mild temperatures. A brief “jab” of arctic air will be…
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Updated 02.13.24 @ 5:32a Quiet weather will be with us as we move through the next couple of days before a fast moving and weak disturbance delivers a few showers…
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Updated 02.12.24 @ 7:50a The feature we were watching for the potential of southern IN snow later tonight now appears to be even further south- dropping snow on our friends…
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I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing and fun Super Bowl Sunday afternoon! Before we talk longer range, trends this afternoon have been to shove the heavier snow banding potential further south tomorrow night. We’ll keep an eye on overnight model trends but the threat of accumulating wet snow is looking more likely to impact far downstate into portions of northern KY and even western and portions of north-central TN now.
Monday night’s system has trended further south today.
While we’ll trend at least closer to seasonal levels in the upcoming 10-day period (also need to keep an eye on the potential of late week snow and a brief arctic “jab”), the impact of a lack of MJO amplitude into the colder phases (8, 1) and the positive trends on the EPO late month suggest the once cold idea during the period here will be a fail.
In fact, latest ensemble guidance in today shows a milder than normal pattern to return during the last week, or so, of February.
Just a couple quick updates prior to the big game! Enjoy, friends!
We’ll get to enjoy one more quiet, calm day. Our Super Bowl Sunday will feature a continuation of unseasonably pleasant conditions with plentiful sunshine and mild temperatures. We’ll rise from the upper 20s this morning into the mid to upper 40s this afternoon with dry conditions.
This morning’s visible satellite image shows mostly clear conditions in place across the state.
We’re still tracking an area of low pressure that will move into the lower Ohio Valley Monday. As of this morning, this continues to look like a south of I-70 event, including rain that will overspread downstate Monday afternoon before making the transition to wet snow Monday evening. A period of localized heavier banding is likely Monday night downstate and its within these localized “mesoscale bands” that a few folks may wake up Tuesday morning to 3″+ of snow. Otherwise, this appears to be a 1″ to 2″ slushy accumulation for our friends from the southern Indianapolis ‘burbs and points south. Outside of the heavier banding zone, this will be an accumulation event that takes place on grassy and elevated surfaces only.
An area of low pressure will lead to unsettled weather downstate to open the work week.
This is the zone we highlight for the potential of the meso banding to set up, leading to the potential of a bit more “hefty” accumulation.
We’ll be left with a few scattered snow showers Tuesday morning, otherwise, that’ll be it with this system for our neck of the woods. Heads up, if your travels take you to the Northeast big cities this week, plan for impacts from this system. (This should be the most widespread heavy snow so far this season from in and around NYC up to Boston).
Attention here will then shift to a weak (rain maker) system Thursday and then another opportunity for wintry mischief to close the week. Stay tuned!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/11/localized-wet-heavy-snow-bands-set-up-downstate-monday-night-tracking-2-additional-systems-in-the-week-ahead/
Updated 02.10.24 @ 12p We continue to monitor the opportunity for the threat of accumulating wet snow across southern Indiana Monday evening and Monday night. This afternoon’s video has some…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/10/video-prospects-of-accumulating-wet-snow-across-southern-indiana-on-the-rise-monday-evening-night/
Though we still have a few weeks left of meteorological winter, spring and the #Plant24 season will be here before we know it! The headlines that we anticipate to claim the coming months include the following:
El Niño likely continues to collapse; La Niña state by late spring/ early summer
Widespread wetter than average conditions anticipated for a large chunk of the country, including central Indiana. Opportunity for above average severe weather episodes during the March through May (meteorological spring) time period.
Time to prep for a hyper active hurricane season along the Gulf and Southeast US coastlines.
Long range, seasonal forecast models, continue to show the current El Niño collapsing and moving swiftly towards a La Niña late spring and early summer.
This transition will certainly have impacts on the anticipated precipitation and potential of a busier severe weather season this spring. We forecast a rather swift Nino collapse and subsequent onset of La Niña, which ups the ante for a wet spring, not only locally, but across a widespread chunk of the country. Undoubtedly, this could lead to plant24 impacts (delays) at times.
Seasonal products see the above average rain expected for spring 24.
European Seasonal Precipitation Anomalies March through MayJMA Precipitation Anomalies March through May
From a temperature perspective, we forecast widespread milder than normal temperatures as a whole for the season across the northern tier, including central Indiana. We caution though that the way we get to slightly (1° to 2° above normal on the season) milder overall may include wild swings through the season. For example, we forecast a colder than normal 1st half of March, the potential of a significant flip to warmer the 2nd half and a cooler pattern to return for the bulk of April.
European seasonal temperature anomalies March through MayJMA temperature anomalies March through May
IndyWx.com Spring/ #Plant24 Outlook for central Indiana:
Temperatures that average 1° to 2° above normal overall for the March-May period.
Precipitation that runs 125% to 130% of normal during meteorological spring.
Wishing the best of luck and positive vibes to all in the months ahead, especially our #AGwx partners. Happy spring!
Scattered showers/ embedded thunder overnight, opportunity for slushy, light snow accumulation, and long range rumblings highlight this evening’s rambles…
I. A thin line of broken showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder will push southeast across central IN during the predawn hours Saturday. More widespread, concentrated rain and embedded thunder will work across the southern 1/3 of the state overnight and early Saturday morning. Across central IN, rainfall amounts of 0.10″ to 0.25″ will be possible with this activity with more widespread 0.25″ to 0.50″ totals across the southern portion of the state.
The front will pass southeast across the region predawn Saturday with a northwest wind shift taking place from northwest to southeast prior to sunrise Saturday. Cooler (not cold by February standards) air will flow into the region over the weekend.
II. The second piece of energy that will lead to a significant rain and associated severe weather episode across the South and a big ole snowstorm for our friends across the Northeast early next week, still appears to mostly bypass our immediate region. It’s possible southern portions of the state (mostly south of Indianapolis) could see a light, slushy snow accumulation, but I think even in these areas the 1″, via today’s EPS is too “generous.” The reason? Snowfall rates, marginal temperatures, and the unseasonably warm ground. Further east, this will be a much different animal with a notable snowstorm anticipated for the central Appalachians into southern New England. Regardless, at least locally, Monday evening into Monday night would be the period to watch for the potential of the slushy wet snow accumulation potential.
III. The upcoming week will undoubtedly be much cooler than what we’ve grown accustomed to from February ’24 so far, but nothing overly cold for this time of year by any stretch of the imagination. We’ll watch for the threat of a couple of clipper systems that could deliver mixed rain/ snow or light snow, but significant snow makers aren’t on the horizon in the week ahead as of this evening. We’ll continue to closely monitor.
The opportunity is present for a shot of colder air behind one of these clippers next weekend.
IV. The reason for “pause” this morning in the long standing idea here of a return to prolonged colder than normal weather into March came from a positive trend in the EPO and what at least appears (from this distance) any sort of MJO venture into Phase 8 will be very brief. If (still a bigger “if” than we prefer) we don’t keep that EPO negative and the MJO goes into the neutral phase, even a negative NAO won’t be able to impact the area with notable cold. Can the other players on the field at least keep the period closer to average or slightly cooler than normal? Yes, but any prolonged or significant cold would be highly unlikely if the EPO/ MJO combo doesn’t come to fruition. You better believe we’ll be watching trends carefully over the weekend into early next week.
Updated 02.09.24 @ 7:14a With just enough sunshine we should easily set a new record in the city later this afternoon. Regardless, find a way to get outside and enjoy…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/09/video-going-for-a-new-record-high-this-afternoon-fly-in-the-ointment-late-month-into-early-march/
