After an unseasonably cool weekend, significant late season heat will return next week.
Note the ridge expand over the eastern portion of the country next week.
To no surprise, the EPO pops positive and this really helps drive the warm mid-September pattern.
Positive EPOs in September favor warmth from the OHV, Mid Atl and into the Northeast.
The question then becomes “how long does the late season heat last?” As the EPO trends negative, cooler times would be favored as we move into late September. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
For now, those not ready to say goodbye to summer will be in luck next week with highs around 90 and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s…
A few opportunities (today and Sunday) for showers can be expected over the next few days, but these won’t amount to much and some may not see any rain of significance. Better rain and storm chances will return the middle of next week.
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The short-term period will be dominated by a cooler than normal theme as we put the final touches on August and open September.
This will only serve to push those already below normal for the month even cooler than average and turn a lot of the area bordering these cool anomalies “over the top” from seasonal to slightly cooler than normal by month’s end. Meanwhile, warmth will continue to dominate along the coasts
Here’s a look at month-to-date temperature anomalies, compared to our initial August forecast (issued July 21st).
The negative EPO suggests any sort of warmth will be hard to come by and transitional through the 1st 1/3 of the month.
After a wet time of things as of late, we’ll dry things out the middle part of the week. A couple of moisture-starved and rather weak systems may lead to scattered showers Friday and again at times over the holiday weekend, but significant rain isn’t anticipated. We would agree with the drier than average theme displayed from the most recent CFSv2 Weekly product to open September:
The one potential “fly in the ointment” to the dry open to September would be whatever comes from current Tropical Storm Dorian (moving through the Windward Islands as of this update). There’s relatively good model agreement that Dorian will move northwest and eventually be in a position to impact the eastern Florida coastline by the Labor Day weekend as a Tropical Storm.
It’s far too early to speculate from this point, but the pattern may promote Dorian to then track into the Gulf of Mexico. While unlikely Dorian’s remnant moisture ever impacts our immediate region, this will be something that we’ll keep an eye on over the next week to 10 days.
There’s no question that August will open dry, quiet, and downright pleasant. A lot of this is thanks to a dominating ridge of high pressure that will essentially park itself over the Ohio Valley into the early part of next week. While we continue to keep eyes on the potential of a shower or storm Sunday (especially across northern IN), the pattern overall through the upcoming week looks bone dry.
There’s no reason to disagree with the latest ensemble/ climate data and associated dry pattern depicted on the latest runs into the middle of next week.
That said, there are some key changes that take place between the current upper air pattern and what awaits in the Weeks 2-3 time period shown below.
Note the placement of the upper ridge across the 4-corners region and the prevailing northwest flow aloft across the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley. This is the type pattern that should result in a rather significant “uptick” in storm systems traversing the region beginning late next week into the following week.
The latest Weeks 2-3 data is considerably different from present with respect to the overall precipitation pattern and we would agree this wetter idea has merit…
Moral of the story is that if you need to tend to significant outdoor projects over the upcoming 6-7 days, you’re in luck with an extended period of dry weather. However, we should thankfully avoid the prolonged hot, dry stretch that August can be notorious for around these parts with a significant shift towards a wetter pattern by Week 2.
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