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Category: CFSv2
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-week-ahead-outlook-what-awaits-for-mid-month/
Sep 29
VIDEO: October 2019 Outlook…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-october-2019-outlook/
Sep 21
Fun With The MJO…
Lovers of fall weather sure don’t want to see Phases 8 or 1 of the MJO in September and October. These are flat-out blow torch phases across the eastern half of the country and sure enough, that’s what we’re forecasting over the better part of the next couple of weeks. With an amplified MJO, we put more stock into this signal than others (EPO, for example) in building out our Weeks 2-3 forecast.
This is not only a warm signal for our immediate region, but a wetter signal as well.
It should be no surprise to see the models paint a very warm picture over the next couple of weeks with this MJO “stalling” in Phase 1. This will lead to a persistent eastern ridge (any cooler air will be very transitional) along with western cold and early snow.
Although things will turn more active, locally, the wettest anomalies should be centered just off to the west and north of our immediate region through the balance of the upcoming 14 days.
While we’ll continue to deal with “bonus” summer-like conditions, the overall pattern from a bigger picture is one that shows fall and winter are, indeed, just around the corner… Note how the snow cover is expected to expand over the next couple of weeks west and north.
This is worth keeping an eye on. With the MJO showing a tendency to become more amplified, it’s only a matter of time before we swing into the much colder Phase 2 (thinking we need to watch mid-October). Phase 2 in and of itself will be a rather abrupt shift given just how warm we’ll be the next couple of weeks, but when you add in the fact that we’ll likely be looking at a fast start to the snow season, it may come as even more of a shock as the air mass won’t be able to “modify” on its journey southeast.
We’ll continue to closely monitor…
Enjoy your college football Saturday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/fun-with-the-mjo/
Sep 17
MJO/ EPO Telling Of Where The Pattern Is Heading To Close September & Open October?
The short-term period will continue to be dominated by unseasonably warm and dry weather. While we’ll notice a drier air mass (lower humidity) in place the next couple of days, temperatures will remain much warmer than where we should be in mid to late September.
As we close out the month and head into early October, there’s opportunity for a cooler change and we can look to the MJO and EPO for these clues.
Let’s start with the EPO. The GEFS has been leading the way on the negative transition late September for some time now. The EPS is now trending more strongly negative as of the past couple of days. This argues for a cooler than normal period of weather as we put a bow on September and open October.
(The strongly positive EPO will promote more well above normal warmth in the short to medium term period).
The MJO is becoming more amplified and the result is that we can add another “tool to the belt” moving forward in determining the overall direction of the longer range pattern.
Phase 8 argues for widespread warmth, but as we transition from Phase 1 into Phase 2 (easy to see that’s where the MJO wants to head), cooler air swings into the East/ South.
That transition may also result in needed moisture. Note the wetter period that develops during the movement from Phase 1-2.
Speaking of moisture, Sunday appears to offer up the best chance of widespread, organized rain/ storms we’ve seen month-to-date. Models are keying in on the potential of 0.50″ to 1″ (fingers crossed) as a cold front moves into the region.
The CFSv2 is following the plan outlined above- transitioning towards a wetter and eventually cooler pattern Weeks 2-3.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mjo-epo-telling-of-where-the-pattern-is-heading-to-close-september-open-october/
Sep 13
Interesting Test Case In Front Of Us: Euro Vs. Everyone Else…
As we look ahead to late September, there’s a battle beginning to take place in model land. When we pull back the curtain, we note the GEFS and EPS handle the evolution of the EPO in two totally different manners in the Week 2 time period.
Our stand on the evolution of the pattern remains unchanged: that much cooler times will return as we get set to wrap up the month and head into early October. Updated data, aside from the European, suggests we’re on the right track with that train of thought.
JMA Weeklies- Week 2
CFSv2- Week 2
GEFS- Week 2
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/interesting-test-case-in-front-of-us-euro-vs-everyone-else/