Category: Canadian Model

Mar 03

Cold Pattern Continues…

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Forecast Updated 03.04.14 @ 8:22a

Sunny, But Cold…Another day of bright sunshine will help temperatures rebound to the freezing mark Tuesday afternoon.  While this is still well below normal and closer to the normal low for this date of 29 degrees, it’ll be a full 14 degrees “milder” than Monday’s high.  You know it’s been a cold winter when you’re saying the freezing mark is milder for a high in March.

Weak Weather Maker…A weak clipper system will move towards the region Wednesday evening into Thursday.  While this will be an accumulating snow producer for areas to our west, current thinking still moves this moisture towards our region, but with a dry air mass in place we think precipitation starts to fall apart as it moves in.  All of that said, light snow and scattered snow showers will fall for parts of the region Wednesday night into early Thursday.  We still think most don’t deal with much, if any, accumulation, but a light coating is possible in spots.  We’ll continue to monitor.

Eyeing Another Wintry Weekend…Modeling is still far from in agreement on the evolution of things on the weekend, but the general idea is one that brings a cold front through here Friday night into early Saturday morning with a wave of low pressure moving northeast out of the middle Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Ohio Valley Saturday.  With fresh cold air oozing south, combined with the associated track of the low, this is a potentially wintry set up for the region and we’re officially calling for a wintry mixture of light snow and/ or sleet across central Indiana Saturday.  The key word is light, but it could still be enough to create a few slick spots across the region.

Briefly Milder; Tracking The Next Significant Storm…The GFS and Canadian forecast models keep our region dry during the early to middle part of next week as a surface low tracks out of the Gulf and well south and east of our region.  On the other hand, the European forecast model winds a storm up much farther north and west and presents a heavy rain and possible thunderstorm threat here by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.  We still have time to watch this and think the European may be a little too aggressive at present, but stay tuned.

What we are confident on is a briefly milder push of air early next week that could send temperatures well into the 50s.  Don’t get used to it, however, as yet another polar plunge arrives by the mid week stretch.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1-2″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: Less than 0.10″

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-record-cold-start-possible/

Mar 02

A Note On Today And A Look Ahead To “Tomorrow.”

Without question, snowfall numbers didn’t reach our initial forecast of 6-8″ made Thursday.  We revised our projected accumulation numbers last night to the 2-5″ range and that did just fine.…

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Mar 02

Accumulating Ice And Snow Then Frigid

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Forecast Updated: 03.02.14 @ 12:25a

Sunday Winter Storm…The well advertised winter storm is here and will make a mess of travel and plans for the second half of your weekend.  Moisture is streaming northeast over a bitterly cold air mass locked in place at the surface and this will create a mixture of sleet and freezing rain to quickly change to a mixture of sleet and snow during the early morning hours across central Indiana.

We forecast precipitation intensity to really begin to increase across the greater central Indiana region around 3-4 am.  Waves of accumulating snow will continue through the day, though it won’t snow all day.  In particular, we bracket 4am to 10am and then again early Sunday afternoon.

Finally, a wave of low pressure will eject into the Tennessee Valley Sunday night into Monday, continuing the significant snow and icing down state.  We anticipate the majority, if not all, of “round two” to bypass most of central Indiana to the south Sunday evening into early Monday.  So, what’s the culprit behind the suppression?  As mentioned in previous posts, a powerful arctic high will build south Sunday into Sunday night and this is the primary driver for the shift south in the surface low track.

All of that said, we’re still looking at significant accumulations of sleet and snow across central Indiana today, though reduced from the 6-8″ forecast we’ve had out since Thursday morning.  We now forecast 2-5″ of snow and sleet across central Indiana.  Needless to say, we’ll continue to monitor.  Sunday night will turn downright frigid across the region as temperatures crash into the upper single digits.

As a quick side note, we once again have to tip our cap to the Canadian forecast model.  It began to catch onto the southward shift with “phase 2” of the storm well in advance of the other model data (during the mid week period), including the highly touted European forecast model.

Frigid Start To The Work Week With Slow Mid Week Moderation…Fresh arctic air will be locked in place across the area to begin the new work week.  While it’ll be dry, temperatures will run as much as 30 degrees below seasonal norms.  The cold winter of 2013-2014 just doesn’t want to let up.

As we push into the mid week stretch we’ll note a powerful Gulf low that’s expected to push up the eastern seaboard. Early indications here keep us dry with slowly moderating temperatures.  Though we’ll remain well below normal, it’ll be a step in the right direction, so to speak, from the frigid early week start.

Weak Late Week System…The early take on late next week shows a cold front moving through Friday afternoon and evening. This may create a few rain showers Friday evening followed by light snow Friday night into Saturday morning as a fresh push of cold air blows into the state.  We have time to watch this and update as needed.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 2-5″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″

We’ll have fresh thoughts posted here and on our social media accounts through the day.  Have a nice Sunday and God Bless!  You can follow us on Twitter @indywx and become a friend of ours on Facebook by searching IndyWx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/accumulating-ice-and-snow-then-frigid/

Feb 28

More On This Weekend’s Winter Storm…

As we’ve been discussing, a significant winter storm is developing this weekend.  The set up is one that will feature an arctic cold front sinking south and stalling out across southern and central Indiana Saturday night.  Low pressure will then organize over the Ark-la-tex region and head northeast, tracking into the northern Tennessee Valley Sunday and Sunday night.  The low will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coastline Monday evening.  This will be more of a prolonged event when compared to our last two winter storms as waves of moderate to heavy snow move into central Indiana beginning late Saturday night.

This is an ominous set up for more heavy snow across central Indiana- one that’s notorious for heavy snow events across central Indiana.  We hoisted our initial snowfall forecast Thursday morning and placed central Indiana under the threat for 6-8″.  As of this morning, we’re remaining firm on that idea.  It should be noted that the GFS remains very bullish on heavier totals (and consistent, as well), but it should also be pointed out it’s somewhat of an outlier as of this morning as the GEM and ECMWF are more suppressed with lighter totals.  All of that said, we lean more towards the GFS solution versus the more suppressed Canadian and, to some extent, European forecast model.  Should the other model data begin to trend towards the snowfall idea per the GFS then the initial 6-8″ forecast will have to be adjusted upward.  The storm is just now coming onshore and will be sampled better with model runs later today.

Any way you slice it, a significant and disruptive winter storm is brewing this weekend and could make an absolute mess of your Sunday and Monday.  A shot of bitterly cold air will flow in behind our departing storm early next week.

Our current accumulation idea and storm track can be found below:  We’ll have another update here late tonight and you can keep up-to-date with all of our thoughts on the go on Twitter (@indywx).

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/more-on-this-weekends-winter-storm/

Feb 20

Back To Winter We Go

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Forecast Updated 02.21.14 @ 7:30a

Chilly, Windy Close To The Week…After a busy Thursday night that included hail reports, damaging wind gusts, and flooding we’re looking at a calmer, yet blustery and colder close to the work week as low pressure heads north into Canada.  Winds will remain strong and gusty this morning, but begin to “relax” as we head into the afternoon, diminishing slowly through the day.  That said, it’ll remain quite blustery and much cooler than the flirt with spring Thursday.  A couple of snow showers may fly in shallow wrap around moisture this morning.

For now, we think Saturday will remain mostly dry, but a fast moving weather disturbance will scoot by to our north and could result in an increase in cloud cover Saturday afternoon.

Sunday Snow?  That remains the question, but we continue to closely monitor a disturbance that could produce accumulating snow here Sunday afternoon into Monday.  Model data is all over the place and ranges anywhere from a mainly dry day Sunday to a full blown accumulating snow event of a few inches.  It’s worth noting the Canadian is the most bullish on Sunday accumulation potential and we’re leaning more towards that direction as of now, especially when considering the way the Canadian handled the Valentine’s snow event.  Stay tuned.

Big Cold…A major league late season blast of arctic air will blow into town by the middle of next week and result in temperature close to 25-30 degrees below normal.  We’ll monitor the “goings on” late next week as indications points towards a storm brewing.  Early ideas take this mainly south of our immediate region, but we’ll continue to monitor.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast:  1-3″
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″

 

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/back-to-winter-we-go/