Mar 02
Without question, snowfall numbers didn’t reach our initial forecast of 6-8″ made Thursday. We revised our projected accumulation numbers last night to the 2-5″ range and that did just fine.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/02/a-note-on-today-and-a-look-ahead-to-tomorrow/
Mar 02
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16/ 23 |
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4/ 28 |
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18/ 38 |
27/ 50 |
22/ 37 |
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Forecast Updated: 03.02.14 @ 12:25a
Sunday Winter Storm…The well advertised winter storm is here and will make a mess of travel and plans for the second half of your weekend. Moisture is streaming northeast over a bitterly cold air mass locked in place at the surface and this will create a mixture of sleet and freezing rain to quickly change to a mixture of sleet and snow during the early morning hours across central Indiana.
We forecast precipitation intensity to really begin to increase across the greater central Indiana region around 3-4 am. Waves of accumulating snow will continue through the day, though it won’t snow all day. In particular, we bracket 4am to 10am and then again early Sunday afternoon.
Finally, a wave of low pressure will eject into the Tennessee Valley Sunday night into Monday, continuing the significant snow and icing down state. We anticipate the majority, if not all, of “round two” to bypass most of central Indiana to the south Sunday evening into early Monday. So, what’s the culprit behind the suppression? As mentioned in previous posts, a powerful arctic high will build south Sunday into Sunday night and this is the primary driver for the shift south in the surface low track.
All of that said, we’re still looking at significant accumulations of sleet and snow across central Indiana today, though reduced from the 6-8″ forecast we’ve had out since Thursday morning. We now forecast 2-5″ of snow and sleet across central Indiana. Needless to say, we’ll continue to monitor. Sunday night will turn downright frigid across the region as temperatures crash into the upper single digits.
As a quick side note, we once again have to tip our cap to the Canadian forecast model. It began to catch onto the southward shift with “phase 2” of the storm well in advance of the other model data (during the mid week period), including the highly touted European forecast model.
Frigid Start To The Work Week With Slow Mid Week Moderation…Fresh arctic air will be locked in place across the area to begin the new work week. While it’ll be dry, temperatures will run as much as 30 degrees below seasonal norms. The cold winter of 2013-2014 just doesn’t want to let up.
As we push into the mid week stretch we’ll note a powerful Gulf low that’s expected to push up the eastern seaboard. Early indications here keep us dry with slowly moderating temperatures. Though we’ll remain well below normal, it’ll be a step in the right direction, so to speak, from the frigid early week start.
Weak Late Week System…The early take on late next week shows a cold front moving through Friday afternoon and evening. This may create a few rain showers Friday evening followed by light snow Friday night into Saturday morning as a fresh push of cold air blows into the state. We have time to watch this and update as needed.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
We’ll have fresh thoughts posted here and on our social media accounts through the day. Have a nice Sunday and God Bless! You can follow us on Twitter @indywx and become a friend of ours on Facebook by searching IndyWx.com.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/03/02/accumulating-ice-and-snow-then-frigid/
Feb 28
As we’ve been discussing, a significant winter storm is developing this weekend. The set up is one that will feature an arctic cold front sinking south and stalling out across southern and central Indiana Saturday night. Low pressure will then organize over the Ark-la-tex region and head northeast, tracking into the northern Tennessee Valley Sunday and Sunday night. The low will move off the southern Mid Atlantic coastline Monday evening. This will be more of a prolonged event when compared to our last two winter storms as waves of moderate to heavy snow move into central Indiana beginning late Saturday night.
This is an ominous set up for more heavy snow across central Indiana- one that’s notorious for heavy snow events across central Indiana. We hoisted our initial snowfall forecast Thursday morning and placed central Indiana under the threat for 6-8″. As of this morning, we’re remaining firm on that idea. It should be noted that the GFS remains very bullish on heavier totals (and consistent, as well), but it should also be pointed out it’s somewhat of an outlier as of this morning as the GEM and ECMWF are more suppressed with lighter totals. All of that said, we lean more towards the GFS solution versus the more suppressed Canadian and, to some extent, European forecast model. Should the other model data begin to trend towards the snowfall idea per the GFS then the initial 6-8″ forecast will have to be adjusted upward. The storm is just now coming onshore and will be sampled better with model runs later today.
Any way you slice it, a significant and disruptive winter storm is brewing this weekend and could make an absolute mess of your Sunday and Monday. A shot of bitterly cold air will flow in behind our departing storm early next week.
Our current accumulation idea and storm track can be found below: We’ll have another update here late tonight and you can keep up-to-date with all of our thoughts on the go on Twitter (@indywx).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/28/more-on-this-weekends-winter-storm/
Feb 20
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Forecast Updated 02.21.14 @ 7:30a
Chilly, Windy Close To The Week…After a busy Thursday night that included hail reports, damaging wind gusts, and flooding we’re looking at a calmer, yet blustery and colder close to the work week as low pressure heads north into Canada. Winds will remain strong and gusty this morning, but begin to “relax” as we head into the afternoon, diminishing slowly through the day. That said, it’ll remain quite blustery and much cooler than the flirt with spring Thursday. A couple of snow showers may fly in shallow wrap around moisture this morning.
For now, we think Saturday will remain mostly dry, but a fast moving weather disturbance will scoot by to our north and could result in an increase in cloud cover Saturday afternoon.
Sunday Snow? That remains the question, but we continue to closely monitor a disturbance that could produce accumulating snow here Sunday afternoon into Monday. Model data is all over the place and ranges anywhere from a mainly dry day Sunday to a full blown accumulating snow event of a few inches. It’s worth noting the Canadian is the most bullish on Sunday accumulation potential and we’re leaning more towards that direction as of now, especially when considering the way the Canadian handled the Valentine’s snow event. Stay tuned.
Big Cold…A major league late season blast of arctic air will blow into town by the middle of next week and result in temperature close to 25-30 degrees below normal. We’ll monitor the “goings on” late next week as indications points towards a storm brewing. Early ideas take this mainly south of our immediate region, but we’ll continue to monitor.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/20/back-to-winter-we-go/
Feb 15
* Your full, updated, 7-Day Forecast will be published later tonight. 1.) In the long range, credit the Canadian model for being spot on with yesterday’s snow storm. It was…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/15/saturday-morning-notes/
Feb 13
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Forecast Updated 02.14.14 @ 11:00a
Accumulating Valentine’s Day Snow…The Canadian led the charge and other modeling has followed suit. The region will deal with accumulating snow Valentines Day as low pressure moves southeast out of Missouri into the Tennessee Valley. We think snow will fall at a good clip, periodically heavy, and begin around mid morning around the city. In fact, a strip of 2-5″ of snow is likely to be laid down between Indianapolis and Louisville later today. Latest radar trends from upstream and banding features suggest snowfall amounts may reach 6″ along the I-70 corridor. Needless to say, if you have travel plans this afternoon plan for snow covered roads and slick travel.
A fresh shot of arctic air will drill south into the region tonight and result in Saturday “wake up” temperatures in the single digits with a biting northwest wind.
Another Fast Moving Clipper…After a mostly dry Saturday, we forecast light snow to build back into the region Saturday night into early Sunday. This will only be a light snow event and most amounts will be in the dusting to 1″ category. The sun should quickly return Sunday afternoon, though it’ll remain colder than normal.
Foggy Start To The Week…As a southerly air flow transports milder air north and over the snow pack across central Indiana fog will develop. It’s possible some freezing drizzle is dealt with Monday morning before temperatures rise above freezing. Prepare for a downright gloomy start to the work week. A cold front will push through the region Monday evening and lead to a period of showers, potentially transitioning to light snow or a light wintry mix Monday night as cold air sweeps back in.
A Spring Tease…A spring tease will have many Hoosiers wanting to break out the shorts by the mid week period. In fact, highs will zoom into the 60s Thursday, courtesy of a strong and gusty southwest breeze. The downside? A line of showers and gusty thunderstorms later in the day. While we still have a week to monitor this situation, the possibility is there for a few storms to reach severe levels across the Ohio Valley region. Stay tuned as we monitor this developing weather situation.
Looking longer term, we anticipate the briefly milder spring “tease” to be just that. Signals are increasingly favorable for a prolonged period of cold, wintry conditions building back into the region as we put a wrap on February and head into March.
For weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/13/valentines-day-snow/
Feb 13
This will be quick this morning, due to time, but we’ll have your complete 7-Day forecast posted tonight. We’re continuing to monitor the weather situation Friday. The Canadian has led…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/13/snowy-friday-on-tap-for-some/
Feb 11
A developing weather situation warrants our attention tonight and that’s the potential of a snow event Valentine’s Day. The Canadian has led the way with this system and other forecast model data is beginning to follow it’s lead, slowly, but surely :-).
While we have time to continue to fine tune things, the trend is certainly one for the snowier over the past 12 hours. That’s not saying we have complete agreement amongst all forecast models, but the overall pattern is one that has to at least raise an eye brow for accumulating snow potential across central Indiana Friday.
A clipper system will dive southeast out of Canada and into the Dakotas Thursday. It’ll race southeast through the Plains states and into Missouri as early as Friday before tracking into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys’ Saturday morning. Clipper systems can always be challenging to track, but especially during the late winter and spring months. The combination of lingering winter chill and the resurgent spring warmth can turn what may seem like a “harmless” wet snow event into a full-blown snow storm with little warning if one’s not paying attention. That’s not saying this is the case with this particular event, but it is saying we have a close eye on things. This will come on the front end of a brief, but significant, pattern change that will promote warmer than normal conditions across the region next week. The tight thermal gradient can essentially help fuel this system as it moves southeast (whether or not this makes “the turn” and adds to the snow pack along the East Coast is yet to be seen). Temperatures Saturday may approach 50 degrees across southwest Missouri Friday while here, across the “snow fields” of central Indiana, we remain locked in the 20s.
For now we’ll refrain from hoisting snowfall potential, but suggest you keep a close eye on the Friday and Saturday forecast and plan for the likelihood of at least some accumulation. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/11/o-canada/
Feb 10
After a dry period through early to mid week, our weather pattern will begin to turn active yet again as we head into late week and this weekend. Three of our more trusted mid range computer models handle the individual impulses of energy differently and the snow potential ranges anywhere from nothing more than 1″ to as much as 10″ in the Friday-Tuesday period. Most likely, we’re looking at something somewhere in the middle.
Our first chance of accumulating snow arrives Friday. Both the European forecast model and Canadian forecast model agree on this, while the latest GFS takes the same energy through the Great Lakes, missing our region entirely. We feel the GFS may be in error mode here. While it’s possible the GFS may lead the way (anything is possible this far off), we feel the EC and Canadian have a better handle on things and we’ve based our forecast (post below) off a blend of these two models for Friday, including accumulating snow.
Our next shot of accumulating snow blows in Saturday. All three models agree on this, but handle the track of the low, another clipper system, differently. The Canadian tracks the low south of IND, strengthens it on it’s journey east and results in a full blown snow storm here Saturday. The GFS and EC remain weaker and track the low across central or northern parts of the state, with much lighter snow amounts here.
You can find your completed 7-Day forecast in the post below this one. Finally, there are some signs the pattern may begin to relax and allow a milder brand of air into the region around the 20th. We caution though that this won’t be a “suddenly it’s spring” pattern, but rather a tease of sorts as longer term signals suggest a wintry regime returns late February into March…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/10/watching-the-pattern-turn-active-yet-again/
Feb 02
As we continue to draw ever closer to our next significant winter storm, we wanted to provide some of our latest thoughts. This isn’t a post that will hash out snowfall accumulation ideas or precipitation types, but instead will provide details on our expected track and potential liquid equivalent precipitation amounts. With so much hype and hoopla around this storm for the past couple weeks, lets just sit back and look at the “bigger” picture, as opposed to trying to sort out details that, quite frankly, are still too early to lay out with any certainty as I write this late Friday night
Here’s our (IndyWx.com) expected track of the low Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon. We used a blend of the GFS, European, and Canadian operational model data, as well as the GFS and European ensemble data sets. We think surface low pressure tracks out of northeastern Mississippi (Tuesday evening) through north-central Kentucky (Wednesday morning), and into Pennsylvania (Wednesday night) before a secondary low forms off the northeast coastline.
This is an ideal track for a winter storm across central Indiana, but specifics such as strength and depth of the cold air, potential southern convection, and forward motion of the storm will have to be sorted out over the next day, or so. Early indications are that while this storm will take a “good” track for winter weather lovers here across central Indiana, the speed in which the system will be moving may reduce snow and ice accumulations from what they otherwise could be. That said…early raw numbers suggest .50″ to .80″ amounts (liquid equivalent) could fall in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame which is significant. Case in point, a standard 10:1 ratio that would suggest 5 to 8 inches of snow- assuming the form of precipitation fell as snow through the entire duration. Again, that is far from a certainty at this point.
Ignoring items such as model snowfall forecasts and precipitation types, just looking at the expected track would suggest central Indiana is very much in the game for a potentially significant and disruptive winter storm Tuesday into Wednesday. We’ll have to fine tune precise amounts and precipitation types in the next day or two. Additionally, much colder air (below zero once again at night) may blow into the state behind this storm for mid and late week before we gear up for yet another winter weather maker heading into next weekend. We still have a long way to go in this pattern…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/02/more-thoughts-on-our-next-winter-storm/
