Category: Canadian Model

Not Much Hot Air In Sight…

The search for that first 90 degree day will have to go on (and on and on and on…) as the pattern remains one that will continue to make it very difficult for any sort of long-lasting, sustained, heat.  In fact, we’re actually going to trend temperatures even cooler as we move into Week 2- the exact opposite of what you’d come to expect as we rumble into mid to late July.

Before we get into next week, let’s focus on the shorter term.  Drier air is on our doorstep as a cold front sweeps central Indiana this evening. This will set the stage for a very pleasant mid week stretch, including temperatures that remain below average and dew points that fall into the 50s.  Note the latest dew point plot below, indicating dew points falling into the 50s, and remaining there for the better part of the next (3) days:

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We will turn much more humid (oppressively so) over the weekend and this will help aid in thunderstorm development over the weekend.  Most of the region can expect around an inch of rain, on average, between Friday night and Tuesday, mostly thanks to complexes of thunderstorms.  However, there will be locally heavier totals exceeding 2″ in spots.

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A MUCH stronger front will sweep the state Tuesday and result in temperatures and weather conditions that are much more fall-like than summer.  A couple days next week have the potential to remain in the 60s for highs (centering on Tuesday-Wednesday for that as of now) and overnight lows could dip into the middle 40s to near 50.  Breezy north and northwest winds can also be anticipated. – Certainly far from what you’d expect for this time of year!

Here’s what the upper air pattern will look like next week:

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/not-much-hot-air-in-sight/

Here We Go Again…

What a weather year this has been for central Indiana.  Snow and cold translated to wet and stormy as winter turned to spring.  Now as summer rumbles into the supposed “dog days” we’re really left with the exact opposite.  Our weather pattern will be dominated by a fast moving northwest flow over the upcoming (7) days and this spells an active and stormy open to the work week and next weekend, with an “island” of cool, pleasant weather thrown in the mix Wednesday through Friday.

The GFS operational run shows that we’ll remain locked into the rather active northwest flow pattern through the upcoming week.  Note that while the trough axis moves east with time, the northwest flow remains intact.

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There’s excellent ensemble support from the GEFS and EC, as well.

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The end result is a (7) day stretch that remains cooler than normal when all added up, highlighted by the cooler punch of air (worthy of open windows yet again) Wed-Fri.

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This also remains quite the active pattern in regards to thunderstorm complexes and rounds of locally heavy rainfall.  We bracket late tonight into Monday morning and again Monday night into Tuesday, followed by next weekend for possible storm complexes that will make for a rather noisy time of things here.  As for the severe threat, we’ll have to keep a close eye on each complex.  It’s possible one or two of these could pose a damaging wind threat as they race southeast and that’s our biggest concern as of now.

When you total it all up, the upcoming (7) day period, July 7th-14th, is likely to lead to more significant rainfall over the region.  The Canadian isn’t holding back, suggesting widespread 2-3″ totals.  That may be a bit “bullish,” but we’ll forecast 1.5″-2″ with ease during the upcoming week, including locally heavier totals.

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Quick summary:

Monday through Tuesday will be highlighted by rainy and stormy periods before we introduce a much cooler and drier regime Wednesday through Friday.  Humidity builds over the upcoming weekend with additional rain and thunderstorm chances returning.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/here-we-go-again-2/

Still Anticipate Late June Changes…

We asked this question on our Twitter account earlier this morning.  Do you prefer heat and humidity or frigid and snowy?  Here’s a look out the back door from the IndyWx.com HQ from this morning and then back to right after the early January winter storm.  Note the snow depth on the fence line.  Amazing stuff!

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Anyway…as we look ahead, we still anticipate an overall regime change as we progress through the upcoming weekend and into next week.

Model data remains in rather good agreement on the evolution of the upper air pattern over the course of the upcoming 7-10 day period.  The GFS is a touch more aggressive on the eastern trough when compared to the European, but both agree on week 2 cooling, as do we.

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This won’t be tremendously cool air (such as last weekend), but when compared to averages, we’re likely to cool things back to slightly below normal.

The PSD shows the changes, as well.  Note the current eastern ridge is replaced by the Day 10 eastern trough.

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The precipitation idea is one that is continued wet.  Our three primary mid range global models (GFS, Canadian, Euro) agree on widespread rainfall totals of 1.5″-3″ (locally heavier totals where stronger thunderstorms move) over the next 10 days.  Here’s a closer look at the Canadian, thanks to the model suite at Weatherbell Analytics.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/still-anticipate-late-june-changes/

Tuesday Evening Video Update!

Good evening and thank you for logging onto IndyWx.com!  Tonight’s video covers the unsettled time of things tonight into Wednesday morning as low pressure continues to have a hold on our area’s weather.  Also, we talk long range weather and give you an idea of what you can expect for the rest of the month of June, temperature-wise!  While we didn’t get into the precipitation side of things in tonight’s video for late month, I will say it continues to look very unsettled with above average rainfall anticipated to wrap up the month of June.  Anywhere from an additional 3-5″ of rain is possible as we go through the rest of the month here across central Indiana.

While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.

While the CFSv2 can be a bit erratic at times, we feel the model has a good handle on the way the overall pattern will evolve late June into July.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tuesday-evening-video-update/

Wednesday Evening Video Update; Drier, Cooler Air Coming!

Good evening, friends.  Here’s a video update as we get set to welcome a cooler, drier regime into central Indiana to wrap up the work week.  Additionally, we’re also tracking another potential heavy rain maker for the second half of the weekend (not that we need more heavy rain)….

PS: The IndyWx.com mascots have attempted more times than not to interrupt my video updates, so I only thought it was time to give them a little face time.  Meet Cameron (left) and Newton (right).

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-evening-video-update-drier-cooler-air-coming/