Dec 09
December so far has been a battle between the cold northern tier and warmth south. The so-called “battle zone” has been located over our neck of the woods and lead…
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Nov 14
Quick-hitting Bullet Points:
The afternoon model suite is in in it’s entirety and it leaves us with about as many questions as answers :-)…
Four of our more trusted short-term forecast models are split 50/50 on the outcome Sunday night. In the snowy camp you have the NAM and European. In the drier camp you have the GFS and GEM. Past experience with this type event says the European and NAM solutions may have the better handle and we think the drier modeling will shift a touch northwest with time over the upcoming 24 hours. The difference between camps would be a nice 2-3″ type snowfall for the Monday morning commute across central Indiana versus nothing more than a few flurries. More as the details become clearer…
We still forecast light snow to overspread central Indiana Saturday evening and night. While this won’t be a big deal, a dusting to 1″ of snow is a good bet across most of central Indiana, especially from the I-70 corridor and points north. Roads may be slick in spots on your way to church Sunday morning.
One thing that’s a certainty is that another blast of arctic air will invade along with scattered snow showers early next week. This push of bitter air will be even colder than this weeks.
In the longer term, plenty of wintry “fun and games” remain. In fact, today’s 12z European has the look set to offer more meteorological headaches come late next week. Ah, the season is only beginning… 🙂
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Nov 02
October finished colder than average (-0.8°) and slightly wetter than normal (+0.05″). The full October summary can be found here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=104988&source=0 November has gotten off to a rip-roaring start if…
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Oct 26
October, month-to-date, shows a reflection of cool anomalies across the Great Lakes region and wetter than normal across the central and Tennessee Valley. The week will get off to an…
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Oct 14
Despite another day of showery, damp weather Wednesday, the overall “trend is our friend” in the short to mid range as a much drier pattern develops.
Drier, cooler air will penetrate into the Mid West and Ohio Valley as the weekend draws closer.
It’s important to note the GFS has support on the drier trend to include some other highly respected mid range model suites such as the Canadian and European.
The next round of rain arrives Tuesday with reinforcing chilly air that could deliver mid and late week frost and freeze conditions for parts of the region. The Canadian is a little more bullish on rainfall totals when stacked against the GFS and European. We’ll continue to monitor.
Regardless of Tuesday rain, we’ll quickly return to a dry regime by the middle of next week.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) agrees on a drier pattern in the mid range.
Latest forecast rainfall totals off the GFS model suggest amounts of 0.50″, or less, across the region over the upcoming 7-days, and it’s important to note half of that likely falls Wednesday with showers associated with swirling low pressure around the region.
Note the cooler trend developing in the 7-day, as well:
If your company depends on snow removal or other types of winter weather, please send us an e-mail for customized winter weather consulting at bill@indywx.com.
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