Category: Canadian Model

Nov 14

50/50 Split On Sunday Night Snow…

Quick-hitting Bullet Points:

  • Light snow Saturday night
  • Still questions around Sunday night snow potential
  • Even colder air invades early next week
  • Fun and games continue in the longer range

The afternoon model suite is in in it’s entirety and it leaves us with about as many questions as answers :-)…

Four of our more trusted short-term forecast models are split 50/50 on the outcome Sunday night.  In the snowy camp you have the NAM and European.  In the drier camp you have the GFS and GEM.  Past experience with this type event says the European and NAM solutions may have the better handle and we think the drier modeling will shift a touch northwest with time over the upcoming 24 hours.  The difference between camps would be a nice 2-3″ type snowfall for the Monday morning commute across central Indiana versus nothing more than a few flurries.  More as the details become clearer…

We still forecast light snow to overspread central Indiana Saturday evening and night.  While this won’t be a big deal, a dusting to 1″ of snow is a good bet across most of central Indiana, especially from the I-70 corridor and points north.  Roads may be slick in spots on your way to church Sunday morning.

One thing that’s a certainty is that another blast of arctic air will invade along with scattered snow showers early next week.  This push of bitter air will be even colder than this weeks.

In the longer term, plenty of wintry “fun and games” remain.  In fact, today’s 12z European has the look set to offer more meteorological headaches come late next week.  Ah, the season is only beginning… 🙂

f168

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/14/5050-split-on-sunday-night-snow/

Nov 02

Weekly Outlook: Busy Times In The Weather Office…

October finished colder than average (-0.8°) and slightly wetter than normal (+0.05″). The full October summary can be found here: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=104988&source=0 November has gotten off to a rip-roaring start if…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/11/02/weekly-outlook-busy-times-in-the-weather-office/

Oct 26

Weekly Outlook: Big Weather Changes…

October, month-to-date, shows a reflection of cool anomalies across the Great Lakes region and wetter than normal across the central and Tennessee Valley. The week will get off to an…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/26/weekly-outlook-big-weather-changes/

Oct 14

Much Needed Dry Time On Deck For #Harvest14…

Despite another day of showery, damp weather Wednesday, the overall “trend is our friend” in the short to mid range as a much drier pattern develops.

Drier, cooler air will penetrate into the Mid West and Ohio Valley as the weekend draws closer.

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It’s important to note the GFS has support on the drier trend to include some other highly respected mid range model suites such as the Canadian and European.

The next round of rain arrives Tuesday with reinforcing chilly air that could deliver mid and late week frost and freeze conditions for parts of the region.  The Canadian is a little more bullish on rainfall totals when stacked against the GFS and European.  We’ll continue to monitor.

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Regardless of Tuesday rain, we’ll quickly return to a dry regime by the middle of next week.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) agrees on a drier pattern in the mid range.

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Latest forecast rainfall totals off the GFS model suggest amounts of 0.50″, or less, across the region over the upcoming 7-days, and it’s important to note half of that likely falls Wednesday with showers associated with swirling low pressure around the region.

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Note the cooler trend developing in the 7-day, as well:

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If your company depends on snow removal or other types of winter weather, please send us an e-mail for customized winter weather consulting at bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/14/much-needed-dry-time-on-deck-for-harvest14/

Oct 06

Weekly Outlook: Active And Cool!

Another active period of weather is in store for the region. (After an extended stretch of pleasant conditions from late September into the opening of October, I guess we shouldn’t complain too much).

Dry days will be at a premium over the course of the upcoming 7-days.  The final in a series of disturbances in the fast northwest flow will blow through the region Tuesday.  This will offer up a threat of scattered showers and a possible rumble of thunder through the daytime hours. Latest forecast radar data suggests showers and embedded thunder will be ongoing Tuesday morning.

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After a dry day Wednesday (filled with lots of sunshine), we anticipate clouds and rain to quickly return as early as Thursday.  Forecast models handle the evolution of things differently at this juncture. For now, we’ll side with a blend of the GFS and Euro and serve up best rain chances late Thursday into Friday, followed by less concentration of rain Saturday, coupled with cool north winds.

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Saturday is a tough call at this point.  The cold front will be south of our area and chilly Canadian high pressure will be building in, but we may keep considerable cloudiness and pesky showers around (similar to last Saturday?). Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune.

Note the cooler than normal air settling in over the weekend.

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7-day rainfall numbers vary greatly from model to model.  Upcoming weekly rainfall totals range from as little as 1″ to as much as 2″.  The Canadian model is the most aggressive, suggesting over 2″ on a widespread basis.

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Just beyond this time next week we may be looking at an even more significant storm system, but we still have time to fine tune things as we move forward.

Despite the dry weather late September through October’s open, the past 30 days have featured beneficial to excessive Corn Belt rainfall…

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Year-to-date has featured a wet eastern region.  Also note the dry pattern across the southwest (some places under 1″ YTD)!  Officially, we’re just slightly wetter than normal at IND, year-to-date (+0.53″).

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Thinking longer term towards the darker, colder, and snowier months ahead… The JAMSTEC remains “bullish” on a regime plenty capable of delivering the cold and snowy “goods” for the region…  BTW- we usually post our annual winter outlook the first Friday of October.  Things have been very hectic as of late and we’re going to have to delay this release by a few weeks….

ssta.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014temp2.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014tprep.glob.DJF2015.1sep2014

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/06/weekly-outlook-active-and-cool/

Sep 28

Weekly Outlook: Pleasant, But Big Changes Hit Late Week…

– What a beauty of a Sunday evening underway! Temperatures across the Ohio Valley and Mid West are running 15°-20° above where we’d expect them. The recent dry, warm stretch…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/28/weekly-outlook-pleasant-but-big-changes-hit-late-week/

Sep 21

Weekly Outlook: Cool Start, Mild Finish

A secondary cold front is moving into central Indiana this afternoon with clouds, gusty northerly breezes, and fresh cool air. Speaking of cool, September, so far, has been cooler and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/21/weekly-outlook-cool-start-mild-finish/

Sep 16

Catching Up On A Tuesday Evening…

Several interesting weather items are on the docket and each will have to be dealt with as they come over the course of the upcoming 7 days.  Some of the headlines include a brief warm-up Saturday, weekend rain that could include a tropical connection Sunday, and another big shot of October-like chill next week.

While we have a few more days of below normal temperatures in front of us, we eye at least one day where temperatures will manage to climb above normal and that’s Saturday.  All indications still suggest we’ll be very close, if not a degree or two higher, than the 80 degree mark along with a nice southwest air flow in place Saturday.  All-in-all, it’ll be a great day to take care of any early-autumn yard work that’s needing to get done.

Changes brew Sunday as a cold front draws near.  This is where questions lie and they actually have to do with Tropical Storm Odile (currently all the way to our southwest over the central Baja California peninsula region).  Odilemoisture

While the GFS and European forecast models still aren’t interested in “welcoming” Odile’s moisture into the region, we note the Canadian model does suggest some tropical moisture, courtesy of Odile, gets entangled along the front Sunday.  We’ll continue to keep a close eye on things and monitor the forecast data accordingly moving forward through the back half of the work week.

 

The other item of interest has to do with yet another big blast of autumn air that will have things feeling very much like October around these parts come early next week.  The above average temperatures Saturday will hang around just for the day as yet another unseasonably chilly air mass moves into the area Monday into Tuesday of next week as a significant trough develops over the east with an impressive western ridge in place.  f156

 

Note the GEFS and Canadian show the return of the unseasonable chill next week.  Keep those jackets handy.  Early indications would suggest this type air mass is plenty capable of highs in the upper 50s/ lower 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s/ lower 40s during the height of the chill (most likely Tuesday).  Stay tuned…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/09/16/catching-up-on-a-tuesday-evening/

Aug 18

Severe Weather Threat Tuesday

Tonight’s video update highlights:

  • Tuesday severe threat
  • Big-time weekend heat
  • Cooler pattern to wrap up August

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk of severe weather Tuesday across the state.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk of severe weather Tuesday across the state.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/18/severe-weather-threat-tuesday/

Aug 05

Tuesday Afternoon Video Update; Closer Look At Friday.

This afternoon’s video update takes a closer look at what continues to appear to be a rather cool, rainy close to the work week.  Widespread soaking rains and temperatures that remain in the 60s Friday are very possible for some portions of our area.

The Canadian forecast model has remained most consistent on Friday's forecast and holds firm on an axis of heavy rain through central Indiana.

The Canadian forecast model has remained most consistent on Friday’s forecast and holds firm on an axis of heavy rain through central Indiana.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/05/tuesday-afternoon-video-update-closer-look-at-friday/

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