Category: Canadian Model

Warmth & Humidity Build; Storms Return…

We’ve enjoyed a stretch of dry and pleasant air, but that will come to an end this weekend as warmth and humidity build and help fuel storms at times later…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/25/warmth-storms-return/

Cloudy, Cool Day; Rain Builds In Later…

We’re off to a cloudy and cool start, but at least things are dry this morning. The frontal boundary that delivered the rain and flooding to central IN Tuesday has…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/08/cloudy-cool-day-rain-builds-in-later/

Watching Bill…

Tropical Storm Bill will make landfall later this morning along the central TX coast.       Models handle the track of Bill differently in the days ahead, but we must continue…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/06/16/watching-bill/

Chilly Now; Continuing To Keep A Close Eye On Sunday…

Temperatures are more remenesant of early fall than late May and a stark contrast to the humid 70s to near 80 Monday. As we type this note both the 24…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/19/chilly-now-continuing-to-keep-a-close-eye-on-sunday/

A Much Cooler, Drier Trend…

Screen Shot 2015-05-11 at 8.51.04 PMHighlights:

  • Much cooler and drier through Thursday
  • Moisture increases this weekend
  • Stormy early next week

A cold front swept through the state this evening and a much drier and cooler brand of air is filtering into IN as we type this.  That cooler and drier regime will carry us into late week before moisture slowly begins to return.  High pressure will shift east and allow a moist return flow Friday into the weekend.  Add in a couple of disturbances and the associated forcing, combined with the increasing warmth and humidity, and the stage is set for periods of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time, but plan on localized heavy downpours.

hrrr_t2m_indy_14A MUCH cooler air mass will greet Hoosiers out the door Tuesday morning.  Even cooler air will be with us Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_9High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine and cooler than normal air through mid week.

gfs_ptype_slp_conus2_16A southwesterly return flow will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across not only our local area, but across a widespread portion of the Plains and Ohio Valley.  Furthermore, a significant severe weather outbreak appears to be a good bet across the Plains.

cmc_total_precip_indy_33After a dry mid week stretch, active times return over the weekend into early next week.  Localized torrential downpours are likely.  Most of the 1″ to 2″ of rain forecast shown above (courtesy of the GEM model off the Weatherbell.com suite) is expected to fall early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/11/a-much-cooler-drier-trend/

Heading In The Wrong Direction…

Screen Shot 2015-04-20 at 3.32.01 PMHighlights:

  • Prolonged unseasonably cool weather
  • Band of showers late Tuesday night/ early Wednesday
  • Frost potential late week
  • Watching a storm system Friday night/ Saturday

SAT_ERG2_VIS_ANISurface low pressure is wrapping up over the Great Lakes region this afternoon with a much cooler air mass flowing into IN.  Though the steady widespread rains have ended, we will maintain a mention of spotty showers into the evening before diminishing.  It’s a gusty day and that will continue.  Most of Tuesday will be rain-free and cool, but a reinforcing push of chilly air will blow into the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday morning, and this will likely be accompanied by a band of showers.  Unseasonably cool air will be the rule through the forecast period.  The next potential “trouble maker” on the radar will take aim on the region late Friday into Saturday.  Forecast models don’t agree on the northward extent of the steady rains, but based off experience and the time of the year we’ll lean towards the solutions favoring a more northerly track.  Stay tuned.

1Forecast radar shown above, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, highlights Tuesday night/ early Wednesday for the threat of a band of showers in advance of a reinforcing push of cool air.

2The next item on the agenda features the potential of wet, chilly, and just downright raw times closing the week and heading into the weekend.  The Canadian model, shown above, is one of a couple models with a more northward flavor of rain Friday night into Saturday.

3Chilly times are the rule for the foreseeable future, friends.  After a warm April (to date), a combination of the GFS and European computer guidance suggests highs are below 60 for the upcoming 10 days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/20/heading-the-wrong-direction/

Wednesday Evening Video Update: Loaded Pattern.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/02/25/wednesday-evening-video-update-loaded-pattern/

Weekend Snow Storm Brewing?

Forecast models for the most part have been much more aligned with this upcoming event, with the exception of a couple runs on Wednesday. Overnight and this morning modeling is…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/01/29/weekend-snow-storm-brewing/

Monday Morning Rambles…

1.) Rain will spread into the state later this afternoon. Most folks will see 0.25″-0.50″. 2.) Colder air will filter into the region by the mid week period and help…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/15/monday-morning-rambles/

A Look At Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

December so far has been a battle between the cold northern tier and warmth south. The so-called “battle zone” has been located over our neck of the woods and lead…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/09/a-look-at-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going-4/

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