Jan 19
While the “1st half” of the storm certainly has been a challenge, we still anticipate a high impact situation to develop this afternoon into tonight across the region.
Our updated snowfall forecast:
Saturday morning video update breaking down the details:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-storm-update-significant-impacts-still-expected-later-today/
Jan 19
A significant winter storm is on our doorstep and will begin to impact all of the region in the coming hours. Low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves northeast out of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and into Kentucky. As this takes place, copious amounts of moisture will lift north into central Indiana. We think precipitation reaches Indianapolis, itself, during the overnight (likely between 3a and 4a).
The bulk of the northern half of the state is still expected to receive predominantly snow with this storm. However, things get much more tricky along the I-70 corridor (10 to 20 miles either side) as temperatures will be “marginal” early on in the event (aloft and at the surface) and will lead to quite the headache for the first several hours of this storm. Even as of this update, confidence is low on precipitation type for the I-70 corridor, itself. A difference of half a degree (F) can mean a world of difference with precipitation type (snow, freezing rain, sleet, or rain). Admittedly, concern is growing for the potential of icing in this area before the deeper cold air can arrive and switch things over to snow. On the other hand, should precipitation rates be heavy enough, it’s certainly possible these heavier rates will cool the entire column of air quicker than high resolution modeling currently suggests and a quicker transition to snow would result. “Boom or bust” potential is higher than normal along the immediate I-70 corridor.
Given the above, and the potential of a “deformation band” of snow to develop during the 2nd half of the storm, our forecast snowfall totals remain unchanged.
Stay tuned and please know we’ll have another update posted Saturday morning.
The other big concern here is the fact that east-northeast winds will turn increasingly strong and gusty as the day gives way to afternoon and evening. Winds may gust as high as 40 to 50 MPH at times during this time period as the storm heads off to the northeast. Even if you accumulate an inch of snow, expect blowing and drifting issues to result. Combine that with rapidly falling temperatures Saturday evening and the stage will be set for slick and hazardous travel throughout the region.
Much more in a few hours around this storm and additional “fun and games” that await next week… (Please send coffee ;-)).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/late-friday-night-update/
Jan 18
After reviewing overnight and early morning data, our snowfall forecast remains unchanged.
We remain very concerned for the impact of a combination of heavy snow north of the I-70 corridor, strong and gusty winds, and plummeting temperatures.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/weekend-winter-storm-update/
Jan 17
A significant winter storm will impact the region this weekend. Here’s our initial thinking where heaviest snowfall totals will occur on Saturday:
Our morning video discussion:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/winter-storm-inbound-this-weekend/
Jan 15
Bursts of moderate to heavy snow will work across the metro during the next couple hours. This will lead to significant drops in visibility and serve to mess up roadways even more than they currently are. If you don’t have to travel through the morning hours we recommend staying home and allowing road crews time to get things cleaned up.
Most of the steady accumulating snow will be over with by late morning and we’ll just be left with scattered snow showers through the afternoon hours. Perhaps the bigger story by then will be significant blowing and drifting snow as gusty westerly winds help usher in colder air. If your travels include country roads, or north-south oriented highways, plan on considerable blowing and drifting snow this afternoon and evening.
We have no changes to our going snowfall forecast with this system.
Finally, as the arctic front sweeps through the state this afternoon, it’ll likely kick up some intense, blinding snow bursts. While these won’t last long, they’ll blast through during the evening rush and will serve to dramatically lower visibility. We note high resolution models are picking up on these snow bursts on forecast radar products.
We’re left tonight with bitterly cold conditions that will continue to grip the region through midweek. Most of us Tuesday morning will be below zero. A moderating trend will develop by late week, continuing through the weekend!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-notes/