Category: Blowing/ Drifting

Feb 24

Client Brief: Threat Of Impactful Wintry Event Increasing As Southeast Shift Continues…

Type: Impactful Wintry Weather

What: Accumulating snow and wind

When: Wednesday into Thursday morning

Temperatures: Middle 30s falling into the middle 20s by Wednesday night

Wind: North 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH Wednesday night and gusty

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate to significant by Wednesday evening, continuing into Thursday morning

Pavement Impacts: Salting and plowing likely will be required

There has been a significant shift in the majority of model data today regarding the track of our midweek storm system. This has to do with a variety of elements, but most notably, the fact that the upper level energy at one time thought to come together to result in one primary storm during the first half of the work week, now looks to come in two parts: Monday into Tuesday, followed by a separate storm Wednesday into Thursday (this was what at one time was illustrated by the models a week+ ago). The debate now will continue for the next 24 hours around the deepening Storm #2 goes through, and this will have significant impacts on what central Indiana experiences in the Wednesday through Thursday time period. We think an initial wave of low pressure will organize along and just south of the Ohio River Tuesday night before tracking northeast and strengthening along the way into the eastern Great Lakes by Wednesday night. Should this, indeed, be the case, moisture would become widespread (after a relative “lull” Tuesday evening) across central Indiana Wednesday morning. With cold air funneling into the area by this time, the predominant precipitation type would fall as snow across central Indiana, including Indianapolis. Initially, this would be a wet type of snow before transitioning to a more powdery nature Wednesday evening.

As the storm begins to deepen to our northeast, blowing and drifting snow would become a concern on west-east roadways Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as the pressure gradient increases. By this time frame, north and eventually northwest winds would gust over 30 MPH with temperatures falling through the 20s. “System” snow would come to an end Thursday morning, but lake effect will continue across the traditional primary Snowbelt of northern Indiana (please note the amounts above do not account for the additional lake effect snow that would fall for Laporte, St. Joseph, and Elkhart counties). Additional lighter snow is a good bet for all as we close the work week out Friday, courtesy of upper level energy diving southeast across the state.

One additional note: We’ve been receiving a lot of questions around whether or not the southeast shift will continue with the model updates tonight. While some slight additional southeast movement in the axis of heaviest snow is still possible, there will be a limit due to the interaction between the deepening surface wave and area of high pressure. We will continue to keep a close eye on the data overnight and update things accordingly if needed early tomorrow morning.

Confidence: Medium

Next Update: Tuesday morning

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/client-brief-threat-of-impactful-wintry-event-increasing-as-southeast-shift-continues/

Mar 05

All-Access Client Brief: Stripe Of Accumulating Snow Streaks Across Central IN…

Brief: Accumulating Snow

What: Accumulating snow

When: Thursday afternoon into Friday morning

Temperatures: Upper 20s to near 30

Wind: E 5-10 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Non-existent to minimal

Snow will develop to our northwest tomorrow night into Thursday morning before streaking southeast across central Indiana Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. The heaviest snowfall is expected to occur Thursday afternoon into the evening hours with lighter snow falling Thursday night into Friday morning. Despite what should be moderate intensity at times, the higher March sun angle should help with accumulation on area roadways (still expecting slick and slushy travel at times during periods of heavier intensity) and the idea here is that a general 1″ to 3″ swath of snow falls in a northwest to southeast orientation during the period. Temperatures should remain fairly steady or slowly fall into the upper 20s and winds are expected to be light.

Confidence: Medium-high

Next Update: 7a Wednesday

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/all-access-client-brief-stripe-of-accumulating-snow-streaks-across-central-in/

Mar 02

All-Access Client Brief: Morning Thoughts After Looking Over The Latest Data For Sunday…

Brief: Accumulating snow

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Accumulating snow

When: 6a to 6p Sunday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to near 30

Wind: North 10-20 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal to moderate

Right off the bat, there’s no need to make any changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast. Snow will arrive into south-central Indiana before sunrise Sunday before expanding northeast through the morning hours, including Indianapolis by mid-to-late Sunday morning. Greatest potential of embedded heavier banding continues to look like it’ll lie across south-central parts of the state (thus the continuation of a 3″ to 5″ swath of snow). North winds will turn gusty Sunday evening and a bit of blowing/ drifting is possible on east-west roadways Sunday night as the late season arctic air arrives in earnest.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/all-access-client-brief-morning-thoughts-after-looking-over-the-latest-data-for-sunday/

Feb 19

All-Access Client Brief: Plowable Snow Moves In Overnight…

Brief: Heavy Snow & Sleet

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Heavy Snow & Sleet

When: 12a to 8a Wednesday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: E 15-25 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Moderate before mixing with sleet

The setup remains the same as a warm front lifts north during the overnight. Copious amounts of moisture will arrive into central Indiana and with cold air in place, a period of moderate to heavy snow will develop. Timing into the city, itself, should come around, or just before, midnight. While the snow will be of the heavy, wet variety, gusty easterly winds will result in blowing and drifting snow (especially on north-south roadways) before precipitation transitions to sleet. We’ve “beefed” our accumulation forecast up to include a 3″ to 5″ band across east-central Indiana, including Indianapolis, as short-term guidance is indicating a period of significant “forcing” (or lift in the atmosphere) that will lead to heavy snowfall rates before the transition to sleet. A couple of hours with snowfall rates in excess of 1″ per hour will likely be observed in that 1a to 3a window. Precipitation will transition to sleet and a period of freezing rain between 3a and 5a from south to north, before turning to all rain in the city before sunrise. Further north, a transition to rain won’t be noticed until after 8a, but the majority of precipitation will likely be over with by that point (just lingering drizzle and fog).

Confidence: High

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/all-access-client-brief-plowable-snow-moves-in-overnight/

Jan 25

Accumulating Snow Impacts Central Indiana Saturday…

Light snow is flying across central Indiana this evening, but “light” is the key word here. For most, a dusting is all we’ll muster with this initial wave of energy.

As we move into the first half of the weekend, a more vigorous disturbance will track across the region. We’ll notice snow breaking out across southwest Indiana around lunchtime before the area of snow grows in overall coverage and intensity through the afternoon into the evening hours.

With a cold surface and temperatures in the mid to upper 20s as the snow falls, expect slick roadways across the region Saturday afternoon into the evening. While winds aren’t expected to be particularly strong, the “open country” may experience a few issues with blowing and drifting snow due to the dry, powdery nature.

Most of central Indiana, including Indianapolis, can anticipate 1″ to 2″ of snow with this event Saturday, but there will likely be a couple of 2″+ reports. Snow will diminish from southwest to northeast after midnight.

Attention will then shift to additional snow and severe cold early next week… More on that in the AM.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/accumulating-snow-impacts-central-indiana-saturday/