Jan 19
Updated 01.19.24 @ 7:58a As the “system” snow winds down, we’ll notice a renewed area of snow showers developing through the late morning and afternoon as another round of arctic…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/19/video-gusty-snow-showers-squalls-redevelop-flipping-the-switch-to-a-wetter-but-milder-week-ahead/
Jan 18
Updated 01.18.24 @ 7:22a We continue to eye an accumulating snow event to close out the work week and this will precede arctic reinforcements that once again will take us…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/18/video-snowy-windy-and-turning-colder-yet-again-big-warmup-on-deck-next-week-but-comes-with-unsettled-weather/
Jan 17
Updated 01.17.24 @ 5:22p
While we’ll still contend with a couple of rounds of accumulating snow to close out the work week, latest model guidance is trending drier with both systems- at least across most of central Indiana. The Thursday morning snow band will lead to a couple inches of powder across north-central and northern IN tomorrow morning, but the majority of this band should fall apart before reaching Indianapolis. We’ll continue to keep close eyes on overnight trends, but travel impacts aren’t likely until once north of Kokomo as of now tomorrow morning.
The next round of snow will arrive Thursday night- now likely well after the evening rush hour. While this still doesn’t appear to be a particularly heavy event (2″-3″ north of Indianapolis, including northern ‘burbs and 1″ to 2″ from Indy and points south), the cold surface will allow this light snow event to create slick road conditions overnight and into our Friday. Snow removal clients, we still recommend planning to activate salting and plowing overnight and through Friday.
We also continue to closely monitor a localized, but heavier snow band that will likely oscillate through a portion of central Indiana through the afternoon Friday. Localized heavier snow accumulations and gusty winds will be associated within this snow band and we’ll have to treat this more as a “nowcast” situation once that LES band gets organized.
Even outside of this LES band, gusty northwesterly winds of 20-30 MPH will lead to considerable blowing and drifting snow, especially on west-east roadways and in the open country. Drifting and blowing snow will continue through Saturday in these areas.
After another bitterly cold weekend, a significant warming trend will get underway next week. That’s not before we likely have to deal with a round of freezing rain Monday night and into Tuesday. Many times, forecast guidance can be too aggressive in dislodging true arctic air and I’m afraid that will be the case in this instance. Today’s trends have likely started to pick up on this icy threat to open the work week and while we likely aren’t talking about a true ice storm, travel impacts should be expected Monday night into Tuesday morning before we transition to a plain ole rain event.
Thereafter it’s “game, set, match” for much milder, but wet times through the rest of the week and on into next weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/17/evening-update-snow-wind-trends-icy-setup-early-next-week-and-more-on-the-pattern-flip-ahead/
Jan 13
Updated 01.13.24 @ 6:57a
We’re waking up to light snow this morning in the wake of our departing strong storm. As a new (albeit much, much weaker) disturbance moves across the Ohio Valley tonight, snow will increase in coverage and intensity this evening, continuing into early Sunday morning. At times, snow may fall at moderate intensity. This is all a byproduct of maximizing every bit of available moisture as the true bitter arctic air rolls into town. We’ll also need to be prepared for blowing and drifting issues.
A fresh 0.5” to 1.5” (may see a couple local reports of 2”) of snow can be expected with this system.
By tomorrow morning, dangerous wind chill values of 20° to 25° below zero can be expected.
“Cold” is the word in the week ahead but we’ll also monitor a couple of quick moving opportunities of additional snow. While it still doesn’t appear that anything overly heavy is on the table, it won’t take much for these systems to overachieve in the bitter arctic air (“fluff factor” will be present in the upcoming week). With the cold, even light snow events will make a mess of area roadways, so be sure to allow extra time to safely reach your destination.
It continues to appear that the system Monday into Tuesday will take a more suppressed route. We don’t expect much, if anything, here across central Indiana from a snow standpoint. Our eyes continue to focus in on Thursday/ Friday. The jet may buckle just enough to allow energy to slow down and organize a bit more to generate a more widespread snow event across our neck of the woods, but even this is admittedly tricky from this distance- just something we’ll continue to closely monitor in the week ahead.
One thing is for sure, whatever snow does fall in this pattern won’t be going anywhere as frigid as we’re going to be. Stay safe (and warm), friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/13/bitter-cold-settles-in-looking-at-snow-chances-in-the-week-ahead/
Jan 11
Updated 01.11.24 @ 6:12p Busy times remain in the good ole forecast office! This evening we dig into not only new long range thoughts but look deeper into the latest…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/01/11/video-long-range-manifesto-and-fresh-thoughts-on-friday-the-weekend/
Dec 24
Updated 12.24.22 @ 8:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/24/video-another-snow-maker-on-deck-warmer-wetter-pattern-evolves-next-week/
Dec 23
Updated 12.23.22 @ 7:58a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/23/video-long-range-update-and-short-term-look-at-our-next-snow-maker/
Dec 22
Updated 12.22.22 @ 5:54p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/22/video-blizzard-conditions-into-friday-another-snow-maker-arrives-just-after-christmas/
Dec 22
Updated 12.22.22 @ 7:40a
Type: Severe Winter Weather
What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures
When: Late this afternoon through Christmas Eve
Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).
Wind: NW 15-25 MPH, shifting to the WSW and increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Severe
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.
Summary: Light rain is overspreading central Indiana this morning as moisture is slowly pulled northward ahead of the approaching arctic cold front. That arctic front is still expected to plow across the state this afternoon (just after lunchtime across western IN, between 3p and 4p for Indianapolis, and by 7p – 8p for our far eastern IN neighbors). Once the front hits, you’ll notice a dramatic wind shift to the northwest and increase to 20-30 MPH with higher gusts, along with a temperature plummet. We’ll likely see temperatures fall more than 20° in less than 90 minutes once the arctic front passes.
As all of this is taking shape, a wave of low pressure will move from southwest IN late afternoon into eastern MI by Friday morning. Long time Hoosiers know that’s a classic track to deposit a nice snowstorm around these parts. Rain will change to snow in the city around, or just after, 4p and we’ll notice the swath of snow growing in overall coverage and intensity as the low pressure system deepens. Periods of heavy snow can be expected at times tonight.
Meanwhile, winds will continue to increase to 25-35 MPH sustained with gusts to 50 MPH tonight, continuing through the day Friday and into the first portion of Christmas Eve morning. These persistent strong winds won’t only potentially lead to power outages, but continuous blowing and drifting issues through the aforementioned period. Blizzard and whiteout conditions will continue at times. Snow removal efforts will likely have to continue into Christmas Eve to account for the severe blowing and drifting on area roadways, especially north-south roadways. While the heavy snow will come to an end early Friday morning, light snow and blowing snow will persist through the day Friday and into early Christmas Eve morning.
Finally, the dangerous cold is going to be a big problem with this multi-faceted winter storm. After we fall to below zero Friday morning, highs on Friday likely won’t make it back much above 0°. Add in the wind and wind chill values of more than 30° below zero can be expected.
Confidence: High
Next Update: This evening (video discussion)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/22/client-brief-use-this-morning-to-finalize-prep-for-blizzard-conditions-and-dangerous-cold-tonight-christmas-eve/
Dec 21
Updated 12.21.22 @ 6:42p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/21/detailed-video-discussion-on-the-blizzard-conditions-ahead-and-the-longer-range-january-pattern-drivers/