Category: Autumn

Nov 05

Wednesday Forecast: Rainy Midweek

Updated 11.05.13 @ 3:43p

Zionsville, IN Clouds are hanging tough this afternoon and rain isn’t too far off. Rain will increase Wednesday, becoming widespread the second half of the day. MUCH colder air will then blow into the region Wednesday night and Thursday.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconWednesday: Rain likely (0.55); 34/ 58

Wednesday will feature another gloomy day with rain overspreading the region from west to east. Scattered showers will be present through the morning hours before giving way to steadier, heavier rainfall during the second half of the day. Latest data suggests the cold front is speeding up from the last forecast update and this should result in a FROPA (frontal passage) Wednesday night. It’ll also be a windy day, with southwest gusts of 25-30 MPH during the day, shifting to the northwest Wednesday night.  Colder air will pour into the state behind the front, setting up a chilly, blustery Wednesday night and Thursday.

Status-weather-clouds-iconThursday: Partly cloudy; 33/ 47

A blustery northwest wind will blow Thursday and combine with a partly cloudy sky and an unseasonable chill to create a rather cold day. Winds will gust upwards of 20 MPH from time to time.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 30/ 51

A hard freeze will greet us as we prepare to wrap up the work week. Widespread lows around 30 will be commonplace before partly cloudy skies help temperatures rise into the lower 50s Friday afternoon.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday and Sunday: Partly cloudy; 40 Sat, 36 Sunday/ lower to middle 50s

High pressure will remain in control of our weather Saturday.  While a weak storm system will pass through the upper Great Lakes region, it’ll remain well north of our area. Southwest breezes could gust up to 20 MPH Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, we’re looking at some mid and high level cloudiness and middle 50s Saturday afternoon and lower 50s Sunday.

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 38/ 50

Dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions will greet us as we kick off the new work week.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Scattered shower (0.10); 36/ 50

The early look at next week shows more questions than answers.  For now we forecast scattered showers as our next weather system approaches from the west, but we caution this is a low-confidence forecast.  Be sure to stay tuned as we update things moving forward.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/05/wednesday-forecast-rainy-midweek/

Nov 03

Monday Forecast: Tracking Another Storm

Updated 11.03.13 @ 3:30p

Zionsville, IN It’s been a beautiful fall weekend across central Indiana. Aside from a couple of quick-moving showers Saturday evening, the weather couldn’t have been more perfect!  While the work week will start off on a pleasant note, we’re tracking another storm and significant blast of chill later this week.

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly to mostly cloudy; 38/ 58

The day should dawn with bright sunshine, however, we note the latest high resolution short-term model data suggesting mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase through the afternoon hours.  It’ll be a dry day with seasonable temperatures.  Enjoy!

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Mostly cloudy; nighttime light showers (0.10″); 44/ 61

We’ll be in between high pressure to our east and our next approaching storm system to our west. As a result, a return southerly flow of air will help begin to transport milder air northward, along with increasing moisture Tuesday evening. The daytime hours should remain rain-free, but we’ll introduce a couple of light showers into our forecast Tuesday night.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconWednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, especially at night (0.70″); 49/ 60

A significant cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Showers will be likely through the day, but we still believe the heavier rains and embedded thunder will hold off until Wednesday night (especially after dark).  While we’re still monitoring any threat of severe weather, the bigger threat at this time appears to be another round of heavy rain falling atop a waterlogged central Indiana.  Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data and update things accordingly.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconThursday: AM showers and thunderstorms (0.40″);  38/ 55 (falling)

The cold front will blow through the region Thursday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms will end west to east during the morning followed by a sharp temperature decline through the day, coupled with strong northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30 MPH.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 29/ 48

A much colder air mass will settle into central Indiana Thursday evening and result in a hard freeze Friday morning. After waking up to lows in the upper 20s, highs will reach the upper 40s with partly cloudy skies.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 40/ 55

Our fast-moving weather pattern will remain next weekend.  We’re tracking another storm system that will blow through the Great Lakes region Saturday. Current thinking places the track of this low too far north to impact the region from a precipitation standpoint, but we’ll certainly note a strengthening southwesterly wind Saturday followed by another shot of cold air Saturday night/ Sunday.  Highs next Sunday will likely remain in the 40s…

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/03/monday-forecast-tracking-another-storm/

Nov 01

Saturday Forecast: Chilly Weekend; Eyeing Another Significant Storm…

Updated 11.01.13 @ 10:53p Zionsville, IN After a day filled with heavy rain and damaging winds, we closed the week out with chilly, but pleasant weather conditions.  We’ll enjoy a…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/01/saturday-forecast-chilly-weekend-eyeing-another-significant-storm/

Oct 21

Cold Close To October; Watching Halloween Closely…

Right on cue, the well advertised cold pattern is settling in and looks to remain entrenched over the region to close October and open November. Note the eastern trough and…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/21/cold-close-to-october-watching-halloween-closely/

Oct 17

Afternoon Thoughts…

1.) Model data continues to point towards some impressively cold air for so early in the season as we move through October’s 2nd half.  2.) Latest raw ECMWF numbers suggest highs next week remain in the 40s for (4) consecutive days- beginning Tuesday and continuing through Friday.  This is extremely impressive for so early in the season. 3.) Northern hemisphere snow and ice cover is running well ahead of this time last year.  There have been studies that suggest this helps promote blocking in the winter months ahead.  (Latest image is posted below).  Time will tell…. 4.) We’re not looking at particularly heavy precipitation amounts over the next week, or so, but there will be a few systems that will produce rain and/ or snow showers (yes, snow) between now and this time next week. Model precipitation amounts range from one tenth to one half inch over the next 7-10 days.  5.) There are some hints we may be looking at another surge of even colder air just in time (or around) Halloween.  You may want to invest in a warm costume this year! 🙂

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/17/afternoon-thoughts/

Oct 15

Wednesday Forecast: Getting To Be That Time Of Year!

Updated 10.15.13 @ 4:42p

Zionsville, IN Rain showers will continue pushing east of the region tonight and we should be rain-free Wednesday. We discuss what’s sure to be a busy, chilly forecast below!

Status-weather-clouds-iconWednesday: Partly cloudy; 50/ 61

Tuesday’s rain will be all, but a memory Wednesday with sunshine returning to your forecast. A north breeze will be in play, helping usher in cooler temperatures.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconThursday: Scattered showers; 0.10; 44/ 58

Some weak upper level energy will move across the state on Thursday and this could help spark a scattered shower.  We’re not looking at all day rains or significant rainfall by any means.  Besides the rain, the other big weather story Thursday will be the chilly air.  We’ll be far below the middle 60s, which is considered the normal high for this time of year.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 42/ 63

We’ll wrap up the work week with very pleasant autumn weather.  A secondary cold front and resurgent chilly air will be set to invade for the weekend, but we think the frontal passage holds off until Friday night. As of now, we forecast the front to come through dry.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy; 40/ 54

Cool Canadian air will flow into the Hoosier state Saturday amidst chilly northerly breezes.  Winds may gust upwards of 20 MPH or so during the daytime Saturday.  You’ll certainly need that jacket or sweater as you head out to the fall festivals or the pumpkin patch!

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 38/ 57

Weather conditions will be very similar to that of Saturday on Sunday.  Dry skies and chilly breezes will dominate our landscape.  Temperatures will remain below average.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconMonday: PM shower chance; 0.10; 39/ 64

Our winds will back around briefly to the southwest and allow just enough moisture northward to potentially lead to a broken band of showers to move through the region Monday evening/ early Tuesday ahead of our next cold front. Most of your daytime Monday will remain dry and rain-free.  This front is packing a punch in the temperature department and will likely produce the coldest air so far this fall season by the middle of next week, including the chance of the first official freeze for IND.

imagesTuesday: Mostly cloudy; 41/ 49

As of now, next Tuesday is shaping up to be a rather cloudy, raw day.  Strong cold air advection will be ongoing.  Gusty north winds will help usher in the coldest air so far this fall season.  In fact, highs likely will remain below 50 degrees next Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies and chilly north winds.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/15/wednesday-forecast-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year/

Oct 15

Change On The Horizon…

So far, October 2013 is running well above normal in the temperature department: As shown above, the lower lakes and Ohio valley region has been the target for the biggest…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/15/change-on-the-horizon/

Oct 10

Friday Forecast: Busier Times Ahead In The Good Ole Forecast Office!

Updated 10.11.13 @ 6:45a

Zionsville, IN I, like many of you, make sure to enjoy the last of the warm, sunny weather this time of year.  As veteran Hoosiers know, the months ahead present a cloudy, bitterly cold, and windy time of things.  Thankfully, we have another gorgeous day lined up to close the work week.  We discuss this and busier times ahead below!

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 48/ 76

It’s only fitting that we close out the work week with the same type of weather we’ve enjoyed all week long- a cool start followed by beautiful weather conditions through the afternoon.  Get outside and spend some time soaking up the sunshine!

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSaturday: Mostly cloudy; scattered evening/ nighttime shower; 0.10″ or less; 50/ 76

Most of your daytime Saturday will provide pleasant weather to get some of those last minute chores taken care of.  We’ll notice an increase in our cloud cover followed by a broken line of showers (perhaps a rumble of thunder) rolling through the state from west to east.  We’re not looking at significant rainfall with this system.  In fact, we think most communities pick up less than one tenth of an inch of rain (if that).

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 55/ 70 

While some of our extreme eastern counties may see an AM shower Sunday, most of the day will be rain-free and feature increasing sunshine.  It’ll be another pleasant day for outdoor activities.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday:  Partly cloudy; 45/ 69

High pressure and an associated northerly air flow will dominate our weather to begin the new work week. North breezes may gust upwards of 15 MPH Monday and this will help keep us cooler than the weekend. We’ll start the day quite chilly (middle 40s for most) before warming into the upper 60s.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Increasing cloudiness, PM shower; 0.10″; 54/ 73

While we have some timing issues to work out as we draw closer to the event (GFS is more progressive whereas the ECMWF is slower), we’ll go ahead and introduce shower chances to your forecast as early as Tuesday evening. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconWednesday: Rain; 0.50″; 49/ 64

As of now, we see a cold front moving through the region Wednesday. Ahead of the front, showers and possibly a thunderstorm will blow through the region.  Our winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday night/ Thursday, helping drive the coldest air so far this season into the Hoosier state Wednesday night and Thursday.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconThursday:  Rain; 0.50″; 44/ 57

Again, as we posted above, timing is everything with our mid to late week cold front.  Overnight model data places a heavier corridor of rain through central Indiana mid week- potentially as much as 1″-1.25″ over the two day period.

We also want to continue pointing out that with the PNA shifting back into the  positive, the stage is set for chilly air to hang around the region with more “staying power” as we move through October’s second half.  We’ve covered this in posts below and will continue to go over things as we move forward…  It’s time to certainly pull out those coats! 🙂

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/10/friday-forecast-busier-times-ahead-in-the-good-ole-forecast-office/

Oct 10

Changes Brewing?

After an unseasonably cool summer, the pattern flipped to a warmer regime during the month of September.  That same warm pattern continues presently, but are changes brewing?

We note the PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is trending positive and this could help promote more of a sustained trough and associated cooler than normal pattern to wrap up October.  Would it be enough to offset the very warm first half of October?  Too early to tell.  However, I will say that with the PNA trending positive, it does suggest we’ll be looking at more sustained chilly conditions, as opposed to the “in and out” flirtations of cool air as of late.

The GEFS suggests a trough sets up shop across the eastern part of the country for the back half of October.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/10/changes-brewing/

Oct 08

Wednesday Evening Forecast Update

 

Forecast models continue to hint at the potential of our next significant storm system slated for a mid month arrival.  Latest data, hot off the press, remains in general agreement on the way things evolve, but details on timing and any heavy rain/ severe threat will have to be fine tuned as we move forward.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/08/wednesday-evening-forecast-update/

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