Aug 13
We may only be in mid August, but the IndyWx.com office is busy putting together initial thoughts around fall and winter (it’ll be here before you know it)! The upcoming…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/13/thoughts-shifting-to-fall-and-winter/
Aug 11
Highlights:
We still have warm to hot days left before we get into true fall air, but the next couple days will have many craving the autumnal season ahead. It’s not every year we can say mid August will feature lows in the mid to upper 50s and highs in the 70s, but that’s the case for Wednesday. Despite some patchy dense fog in spots, look for wall-to-wall sunshine today, continuing right through the end of the work week. Have an extra vacation day or two to use at work? Might we suggest burning them over the next 48-72 hours? 😉
Warmth and humidity will return heading into the weekend and on into early next week. Additionally, we’ll have to keep a close eye on weak upper level disturbances moving into the region. They may provide just enough “umph” to spark isolated storms over the weekend. Better coverage of thunderstorms can be expected early next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/11/early-fall-preview/
Aug 11
The morning has dawned with patchy dense fog in spots. Be careful traveling to work and school this morning. Most of today will be dry, but an isolated shower/ sprinkles…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/11/dry-push-of-air-arrives-tonight/
Aug 09
1. August has gotten off to a cool start through the first eight days and we expect this to continue during the upcoming week, only growing cooler, relative to the…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/09/sunday-morning-weather-rambles-2/
Aug 08
Highlights:
The weekend is off to a pleasant start- both from a temperature and humidity perspective, but also with current sky conditions across the area. Expect periods of mid and high level cloudiness to increase later today. We also note some of our shorter term modeling trying to push light rain into the picture by evening, but think the air mass will take some time to moisten up before we see much in the way of rain. Most of this should dissipate moving into western IN this evening.
The second half of the weekend will provide much better chances of showers and embedded thunder. In fact, we expect a couple waves of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. It won’t rain the entire time, but keep the umbrella and rain gear handy. Thunderstorm chances will continue as we open the new work week before a big push of cooler and drier air engulfs the region heading into mid week. An early fall preview will settle in Tuesday evening and have things feeling mighty nice around these parts for the rest of the week.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/08/pick-of-the-weekend-is-today-taste-of-early-fall-coming/
Jul 30
1.) The high resolution NAM has been consistent on trying to deliver a skinny line of showers and thunderstorms into central Indiana Friday evening. We’ll keep an eye on…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/30/weather-rambles-to-wrap-up-the-work-week/
Jul 27
Before we dive into what we expect for the month of August, here’s a look at where we stand so far for July (with 4 days left as of this post).
This was our July forecast upper air pattern, issued 6.29:
Here’s a look at temperature anomalies through 7.27:
While overnight lows have been running warm with all of the clouds and moisture, daytime highs have been significantly below average:
With four days left in the month, it’s already been the wettest month on record at IND. The Corn Belt, as a whole, has been quite wet month-to-date.
As we progress into August (where does time go) we think we continue in an active pattern, locally, biased cooler than normal and wetter than normal.
While modeling disagrees with the specifics in regards to the timing, most mid to long range modeling does agree on the overall idea of the hot dome (ridge) backing west and setting up shop over the southwest portion of the country early August which will put our region in (you guessed it) the favorable northwest flow for active weather. Similar to July, disturbances will ride the periphery of the hot dome to our southwest and offer up plenty of chances for showers and thunderstorms. That’s not to say we’re looking at setting another record for greatest amount of rain within a month, but it is saying precipitation should be above average yet again.
From time to time the ridge will attempt to expand northeast, but we don’t think it’s potentially until the last portion of the month before the ridge has much chance to encompass our region for any staying power more than a few days. We suggest getting used to this 500mb look:
The latest NAEFS and CFSv2 highlights the cooler than normal period we should undergo early August (especially after the 5th).
The latest European Weeklies suggest there may be a window for a “calmer” regime after the 25th. That said, it’s a rather volatile pattern.
Yet another tool we’ve been keeping a close eye on the past few months has been the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) as it’s been a big help in tipping us off for prolonged wet weather. Note the consistent negative SOI:
Not to sound like a broken record, but we continue to think the relentless wet weather pattern “keeps on keepin’ on” as we progress through August. It’s very interesting to note the dynamics at play between the strengthening El Nino and warm northeast PAC waters… More on that, and the implications we feel for fall and winter, in the weeks and months ahead. 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/27/august-outlook-2/
Jul 26
Rain and storms now are resulting in flooding for some portions of the region. We look ahead to hot times this week and perhaps an early fall feel for early…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/26/sunday-evening-video-update/
Dec 02
We cover rain chances later this week and some of the conflicting data that’s currently out there regarding amounts. We’ll post a more extensive piece about the longer range later…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/02/tuesday-evening-video-update-3/
Dec 01
|
Mon. |
Tue. |
Wed. |
Thr. |
Fri. |
Sat. |
Sun. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
29/ 35 |
26/ 37 |
32/ 43 |
27/ 35 |
33/ 47 |
37/ 47 |
33/ 44 |
Wintry Mix For Some…Recall we mentioned last week that we’d have to keep close tabs on the week 1 (this week) situation as the pattern looked to present challenges (cold highs to the north and an active storm track south). That’s certainly the case as today is a perfect example of model data struggling on the northern extent of the precipitation and the associated combination with colder air moving south. This morning we’ve had reports of sleet in the Avon and Fortville communities.
We’ll forecast cloudy skies today with best chances of light wintry mix impacting the I-70 corridor and points south. Another little “ripple” of energy will move along the frontal boundary south of the region and provide the chance of a wintry mix this afternoon into tonight.
Tuesday and Wednesday will turn quieter after the chance of morning flurries Tuesday morning.
Late Week System…We’ll keep close eyes on another storm system Thursday. Once again, the fine line between liquid, freezing, and frozen precipitation forms will lie across our immediate region. For now we’ll simply forecast a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain Thursday afternoon switching over to a cold rain Friday. Stay tuned. And deviation south or north will have an impact on precipitation type.
Half And Half…The opening to the new weekend looks to be a wet one as an active storm track continues. We’ll then introduce drier air Sunday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/12/01/challenging-pattern/
