Sep 01
Tuesday Storms: A small, but vigorous upper level disturbance is overhead this morning and will serve as a focal point for thunderstorm development. The disturbance shows up very nicely…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/09/01/tuesday-weather-notebook-2/
Aug 26
Highlights:
After a couple days of variably cloudy skies, we should see more in the way of sunshine as we get set to wrap up the work week. Conditions will remain unseasonably pleasant to be outdoors.
We’ll begin to transition to warmer and more humid times this weekend and with a disturbance nearby, an isolated to widely scattered shower or thunderstorm has to be included in our forecast. Most should remain rain-free, however.
Overall dry and increasingly hot conditions will be the rule next week as ridging develops over the Great Lakes region. Folks longing for more summer before fall truly sets in look to have their wish granted over the upcoming couple weeks ahead.
In the tropics, all eyes remain on Erika. Though many questions remain, folks from the east coast of Florida up along the Southeast coast should remain abreast of the latest developments. It’s likely Erika will go through a strengthening process over the next couple days.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/26/early-fall-like-now-but-heat-builds/
Aug 26
Refreshing: We’re off to another pleasantly cool start this morning. Also note the cooler air has been able to ooze into the southeast. Speaking of cool, it’s been a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/26/wednesday-weather-notebook/
Aug 23
Highlights:
A cold front is on the doorstep this evening and will sweep through the region tonight. Ahead of the front we’ll maintain mention of a shower or thunderstorm, but the band of storms coming through will be “broken” and everyone won’t get wet. A MUCH cooler feel will blow into town tonight and remain intact through the balance of the work week ahead- a downright fall feel. Winds will be breezy Monday afternoon out of the northwest.
Moisture and warmth will return as we head into the upcoming weekend along with an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chance.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.25″
Tonight’s “@cryptics Cam” captures storm clouds gathering to the west as a cold front moves into town. This image was snapped around 4:15p Sunday evening.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/23/fall-feel-arrives-tonight/
Aug 22
August has been cooler and drier than normal month-to-date. As we’ll get into below, this cooler, dry trend should continue to wrap up the month.
* Click on any image to enlarge.
August temperature departure- month-to-date.
August precipitation departure- month-to-date2015 to date has been cool central and east:2015 to date has been cool central and east:
2015 to date has been cool central and east:
The upcoming winter looks fun and challenging. It’s a volatile look with the strong Nino and warm northern, eastern Pacific (positive PDO). Certainly can’t “broad brush” the upcoming winter forecast solely based off similar strong Ninos of the past…
Positive PDO temperature anomalies favor western Canada ridging and troughiness east. It’s a pattern that favors a cooler than normal regime across the east and southeast.
As we go into the weekend, sunshine and comfortable conditions today will give way to increasingly cloudy skies Sunday with a threat of a shower or thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon and evening. A few of these storms could reach strong levels. The culprit? Another strong late August cold front. Most rainfall totals will be around a quarter inch Sunday, but there will be some locally heavier totals with stronger storms.
Warmer conditions will build in briefly in between the early week cool spell and stronger push of cool inbound Sunday night that will remain with us through the majority of the upcoming work week.
Longer term, we think conditions warm going into next weekend after a very cool, fall-like week, but don’t necessarily agree with the GFS ensemble plot below into early September.
We expect ridging to build in to close the last couple days of August.
However, recurving Typhoon Atsani argues for a return of cooler air (briefly) and an associated trough arriving between September 2nd and 4th…
Images credited to the following:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/22/saturday-morning-a-look-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/
Aug 20
Highlights:
High pressure will remain in control of our weather to wrap up the week. As a result look for lots of sunshine and dry air to continue. The next couple mornings will get off to an unseasonably cool start, but the late August sun will help us warm quickly to around 80 today and Saturday. Enough southwesterly flow will be in place Sunday to bump temperatures and moisture levels a “touch.” As a cold front slides into the area we’ll add scattered to numerous thunderstorms into the picture Sunday afternoon and evening. Forecast models vary considerably on rainfall totals, including not much more than one tenth of an inch from the GFS to around an inch with the European. The 12z Canadian is very aggressive suggesting a swath of 2″ through central IN. We’ll discard that solution for now and side with a blend between the GFS and European.
The big story next week is another push of well below normal, unseasonably cool, air! If you aren’t craving fall now then you’re certain to by early next week! (Ah, we’re so close to football season I can hardly stand it).
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1″
Talk about a gorgeous day and an even better sunset! Tonight’s “@cryptics Cam” captures that sunset in crisp, clear fashion. Be sure to follow @cryptics on Twitter for awesome views of the sky and associated weather conditions here across central IN!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/20/weekend-moderation-before-another-push-of-fall-like-air/
Aug 20
Wow, what a difference 24 hours can make! If you haven’t stepped outside yet this morning you’ll certainly notice the cooler, drier, and almost fall feel to the air upon…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/20/thursday-weather-notebook/
Aug 19
A significant late summer cold front will move into the warm and humid air mass currently in place later tonight. This time tomorrow will feel mighty different outside with a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/19/wednesday-weather-notebook-strong-storms-still-possible/
Aug 18
Highlights:
Tuesday featured mostly dry conditions across the majority of central IN, but the same likely won’t be said for Wednesday. A cold front will swing through the region Wednesday night and in advance of the front scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, especially Wednesday afternoon/ evening. Damaging wind is the biggest severe threat. The reasoning behind the turbulent Wednesday weather? A strong cold front that will sweep through the area and deliver much drier and cooler air to finish the work week.
While the weekend will get off to a quiet open, another cold front will deliver scattered thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon and evening. Behind the front we can expect much cooler, fall-like air to open the new work week.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″
Tonight’s “@cryptics Cam” shows a very nice time lapse of the foggy start and afternoon sunshine in Danville today. Be sure to follow @cryptics on Twitter for awesome views of the sky and associated weather conditions here across central IN!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/18/tracking-two-cold-fronts/
Aug 18
*We’re going to begin posting a discussion going into more detail around the what and why of the seven day forecast in the mornings, followed by the actual updated 7-day…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/18/tuesday-weather-notebook/