Category: Autumn
Highlights:
- Lots of sunshine to open November
- Unseasonably warm weather
- Late week storms with a cold front
We couldn’t ask for better weather to open November. Look for an extended stretch of unseasonably warm, tranquil conditions. It’ll be perfect to finish last minute yard clean up or get an early start on putting those Christmas decorations up. Enjoy!
The next weather system of note will arrive Friday in the form of a cold front. While timing issues are present, we’re keeping an eye on the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms (some strong). A drier and cooler air mass will build in next weekend. An early look at weather next Sunday would suggest frosty conditions for many…
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/01/beautiful-weather-2/
Highlights:
- Windy and showery Halloween
- Dry time returns with warmth
- Watching a more substantial storm at the end of the week
Good morning and happy Halloween, friends! We’re off to a cold and blustery start. Temperatures in the 40s, along with a stiff east breeze is presenting a chill in the air! A rather gloomy day is on deck with “showery” conditions at times, but there will be more dry time than not.
The second half of the weekend will turn brighter and very pleasant, and this will really set the tone for what will be a very tranquil first few days of November (where is time going)?! Unseasonably warm conditions will be with us for the balance of the upcoming work week and provide a great opportunity to get those yard chores taken care of or Christmas lights put up.
A more substantial storm system will arrive late week with showers and thunderstorms followed by colder air next weekend…
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/31/unseasonably-warm-open-to-november/
As we scan the latest computer models this morning we really see no reason to deviate from our forecast already out there on Halloween. While it shouldn’t be a complete…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/30/closer-look-at-halloween-weather/
1.) We’re running 15°-20° colder this morning than this time yesterday. Wind chills in the upper 20s-lower 30s are being felt as winds remain gusty this morning. 2.)…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/29/thursday-morning-weather-rambles-3/
After the wet, windy, and chilly spell of weather this week, we have contradicting signals in model world for what lies ahead as we flip the page into November. With so much “noise,” we don’t think it’s wise buying whole-heartedly into any paticular idea for November just yet.
Here’s the plot line…
The PNA trends negative in the mid range and would argue for eastern ridging, and associated warmth.
Sure enough, we see model data (GFS ensembles shown here, courtesy of Weatherbell) going towards what a negative PNA should promote- eastern ridging and an associated warmer than normal time.
BUT…not so fast, as the latest MJO forecast keeps things in Phase 2 for a while and doesn’t show near the amplitude it did only a week ago in moving into Phase 3.
As shown above, Phase 2 argues for chill across our neck of the woods, with Phase 3 being much milder.
Let’s watch things unfold this week and revisit this post a bit later as a follow-up with what lies ahead. There’s never a dull moment in this business.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/26/contradiction-in-model-world/
Today can be labeled as the so called “calm before the storm,” as sunny skies greet us out the door. It’ll be a very pleasant Monday with highs in the middle 60s. Sunny skies this morning will turn increasingly cloudy later in the day as moisture continues to stream north associated with Patricia’s remnants.
This morning’s satellite picture:
When we look at the weather picture tomorrow we note the remnant moisture of Patricia continuing to lift north while a cold front approaches from the west. The “squeeze play” that will ensue over the region will be just what the doctor ordered as widespread rain develops during the daytime Tuesday before growing heavy Tuesday night.
8a Tuesday Futurecast
8p Tuesday Futurecast
Overnight Tuesday-Wednesday morning Futurecast
Locally heavy rainfall can be expected. When you average (5) computer models at this point then you get the idea rainfall totals will be somewhere in the range of 1.5″-2″ inches, with locally heavier totals.
Modeled rainfall totals by Wednesday morning
The story after the big rain storm moves away? A very windy and much cooler feel as a strong trough moves into the eastern portion of the country. This will keep temperatures significantly below normal for the 2nd half of the week on into the weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/26/heavy-rain-then-colder/
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/25/brilliant-fall-foliage/
Highlights:
- Cooler and breezy
- Soaking rain builds in Tuesday
- Watching Halloween
A cold front moved through the area Saturday afternoon and evening and high pressure is now in control with dry skies, cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions. All in all, a beautiful autumn day is on tap! Enjoy!
Remnant moisture of Patricia will track north and team up with a cold front in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period. Embedded thunderstorms and locally heavy rain can be expected. This, of course, is much needed after what’s been a dry time of things the past couple months.
The cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday night and put an end to the rain. Strong northwest winds will usher in a much cooler air mass to wrap up the work week.
We’ll continue monitoring the goings on for Halloween. Models have varied from run to run over the past few days and timing issues will likely continue.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.25″ – 1.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/25/feeling-more-like-fall-rain-builds-in-tuesday/
Highlights:
- Rain moves in later today-Saturday
- Cooler second half of the weekend
- Heavy rain event next week
High pressure will give way to an approaching cold front later today and Saturday. Showers will accompany the front and may spread into western IN as early as this evening before continuing to advance east tonight. Most of the rain should fall through the first half of Saturday, but we’ll maintain a mention of showers up until the front passes Saturday night.
Cooler, drier air will move in Sunday and to open the new work week. High pressure will supply a return of sunny, ideal fall conditions.
As we progress deeper into the week, another cold front will team up with moisture from the remnants of Patricia to provide a much needed soaking. We forecast skies to cloud up Tuesday with rain developing by evening. Periods of heavy rain can be expected Tuesday night into Wednesday before turning more “showery” in nature. Much cooler air and blustery conditions can also be expected Thursday.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.75″ – 2.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/23/much-wetter-cooler-pattern/
Highlights:
- Dry, warm, and breezy in the short term
- Weekend rain chances
- Better rain chances next week
The ups and downs of fall continue. It was only a few days ago temperatures were in the 20s and widespread frost and freeze conditions were felt across central IN. Flip forward to Thursday and some neighborhoods will flirt with the 80 degree mark with a gusty SW wind in place. Dry weather will continue through the daytime Friday before we introduce shower chances Friday night. Rain chances continue Saturday.
A cold front will sweep through the area Saturday night and provide a more fall-like feel for the second half of the weekend with increasingly sunny skies as the day progresses.
Our next weather maker will come in the form of a cold front the middle of next week and enough Gulf of Mexico moisture may get entrained into the system to present a better threat of more significant rains than what we’ve seen over the past month, or so. We’ll keep our fingers crossed. Model solutions as of now vary from an absolute deluge (GEM and European) to more of a 0.5″-1″ type event. For now, we’ll “split the difference.”
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/10/21/dry-weather-continues-for-now/
