Category: Autumn

Nov 26

Nice Today, But A Wet And Raw Weekend Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-11-26 at 9.31.37 AMHighlights:

  • Extended wet and raw stretch of weather
  • Turning colder next week

First and foremost, happy Thanksgiving from all of us at IndyWx.com!  We hope you have a blessed day with friends and family and we’re incredibly thankful for your support of what we’re doing here at IndyWx!

Thanksgiving Day, itself, will be filled with very pleasant weather as a SW flow transports mild air northbound and results in highs around 60 this afternoon with a gusty breeze in place.  A scattered shower is possible, but it’s not until we get to late tonight and Black Friday that we expect more widespread rains across the region.

Rain will settle in Friday and temperatures will also go the wrong direction come evening as a cold front passes through the area.  This is the first in a series of rain that we’ll deal with over the Thanksgiving weekend.  A second surge of rain will arrive Saturday into Sunday, followed by a third push of rain Monday.  All total, between 1-2″ of rain is a good bet across a widespread portion of the region between Friday and Monday.

Colder air will settle in by the middle of next week.  We’ll have to closely monitor as a fourth system will be in play.  It’s far too early for details, but we’ll keep an eye on things to see if some sort of wintry precipitation may be in play late next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/26/nice-today-but-a-wet-and-raw-weekend-coming/

Nov 23

Rain Moving In Late Thanksgiving…

First, I apologize for the lack of posts today. I had my first (and hopefully only) encounter with food poison yesterday evening and it’s taken most of the day to…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/23/rain-moving-in-late-thanksgiving/

Nov 22

Frigid Start; Looking Ahead To Thanksgiving…

Screen Shot 2015-11-22 at 9.27.08 AMHighlights:

  • Arctic air begins to moderate
  • Next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving
  • Another punch of cold air next weekend

Before we discuss what lies ahead, let’s look back at yesterday’s snow event that “overachieved” for many.  Particularly just northwest of the city where 2″-4″ fell.  Snowfall rates were heavy enough to overcome the initially warm surface temperatures, and it was very impressive to see the way the snow accumulated considering this was a November event that took place from late morning into the early afternoon (when the sun angle does the majority of it’s work).  This was an impressive first snow of the season and this morning’s snowpack is widespread throughout the Mid West.

nsm_depth_2015112205_MidwestThe visible satellite this morning shows the snow cover across the central and northern portions of the state, where single digits and teens were common.

SnowpackThe next few days will feature dry and cold conditions.  While we’ll remain below average, temperatures will slowly begin to moderate from the arctic intrusion of today.

We’ll get into a SW (milder air flow) regime for a brief period of time Thanksgiving Day out ahead of our next storm system that will move in Thanksgiving Night and Black Friday.  Clouds will increase and moisture will spread into the region during the aforementioned time period.  Most of the rain will fall Friday, so plan on taking the rain gear with you as you venture out to begin that Christmas shopping.

Thanksgiving

BlackFridayMuch colder air will pour into the region Thanksgiving weekend and we’ll have to maintain a close eye on the evolution of things late next weekend into early December.  Models will continue to waiver on specific solutions over the next few days, but there will be an attempt of a southern stream storm system coming out and “attacking” the cold air in place…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/22/frigid-start-looking-ahead-to-thanksgiving/

Nov 20

Potent System; Friday Evening Thinking…

This evening’s radar shows our potent weather maker providing a plethora of weather elements to our west.  Anything from heavy snow (numerous 12″ + reports coming in across IA) to thunderstorms across MO have made for an active Friday evening.

9pRadarThinking hasn’t changed much from the get go with this storm system, but we wanted to “freshen” things up a bit before bed.

Rain will overspread central IN through the morning hours before transitioning to snow from late morning into the early afternoon.  This transition will occur in a northwest to southeast fashion as colder air wraps into the region.

Here’s a timeline (thanks to Weatherbell.com) of what the radar may look like as Saturday morning progresses into Saturday afternoon.

8aSat

12pSatAs rain transitions to snow, it’ll likely come down rather “fast and furious” for a time before ending.  Despite what may be moderate to heavy snow for a time (especially along and north of the I-70 corridor- there’s the “magic” dividing line again :-)), warm surface temperatures will really limit what snow will actually accumulate.  As things stand now, we still forecast a widespread 2″-4″ snowfall across the northern portions of the state, with 4″-6″ amounts in favored lake effect areas.  Farther south to include central IN, a dusting to less than 1″ is a good bet before precipitation ends.

The growing concern Saturday night will be a stiff northwest wind driving MUCH colder air into the region.  This will help power a brief lake effect event across NE areas of the state before shutting down quickly by the wee morning hours Sunday.

LakeEffectAny lingering moisture on area roadways will freeze up quickly tomorrow night.  With a deep snowpack just to our north, the NW flow will keep things very cold around these parts into early next week.  Note widespread teens Sunday morning across north-central IN and even this might not be cold enough.  If we lay the expected snowfall down, don’t be surprised by some single digit temperatures (not counting wind chill values) across north-central IN Sunday morning.  Highs Sunday will remain below freezing for most.

‘Tis the season!  More in the AM, and happy snow dreams to all!

teens

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/20/potent-system-friday-evening-thinking/

Nov 18

Wet Today; Colder Air Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-11-18 at 7.15.50 AMHighlights:

  • Rain today
  • Breezy and turning cooler
  • Secondary push of early season arctic air

Our big autumn storm system is swirling through the central Plains this morning.  It’ll begin to pick up forward momentum and head northeast over the next 24 hours.

We’re dealing with an impressive fetch of moisture (w/ a Gulf of Mexico connection) this morning and that’ll help feed embedded heavy downpours this morning into the early afternoon.  Here’s a time stamp of forecast radar images, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

7aSimRadar

11aSimRadar

3pSimRadarAs mentioned above, with a GOM connection, embedded heavy rain will dampen your Wednesday activities.  On average, we’ll add an additional half inch to inch of rain today (that’s on top of what we saw Monday and Tuesday).

RaintotalsOnce to tomorrow all eyes will be on our next storm system that will eventually help pull down the season’s first blast of arctic air.  Ahead of the cold surge, expect light rain to end as light snow across central IN Saturday.  This won’t be a big deal from an accumulation perspective, but it’s always exciting seeing the first snow flakes of the season.  Further north, across our northern tier of counties, a couple inches of snow will be possible.

SatPMStormTrackWe’re also keeping a close eye on Thanksgiving’s weather.  While still a bit early to be specific, initial thoughts suggest we’re dealing with a storm on, or just on either side of Thanksgiving, that will provide rain to begin, but we caution that another surge of early season arctic air looks to pour in behind that storm system and potentially set the stage for a more impactful winter event to open December.  More on that in the days ahead…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/18/wet-today-colder-air-coming/

Nov 17

Tuesday Evening Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/17/tuesday-evening-video-update-4/

Nov 17

Couple Storms To Watch And Much Colder Air…

Screen Shot 2015-11-17 at 7.30.17 AMHighlights:

  • Periods of rain
  • Turning cooler
  • Next storm offers up wintry precipitation for parts of the state
  • Early arctic blast

Periods of rain will continue into the mid to late afternoon across central IN as “wave 2” of our current storm system moves through.  We’ve added a couple simulated radar images below, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

9aFuture

2pFutureThis is all in association with a significant autumn storm system that’s been responsible for delivering hefty snows across the Rockies, blizzard conditions across the High Plains, and severe weather across the central and southern Plains.  This storm will lift northeast over the next 24-36 hours.

TuePM

WedPMA third, and final, wave of moisture will push through the state Wednesday, in a weakened state from what our friends to the west will experience (where another round of severe is expected today and tonight).  This is what the radar may look like mid-morning-ish Wednesday.

10aWedFutureWhen all is totaled up from rain that began Monday afternoon and ends Wednesday afternoon, many locales will pick up 1.5″-2″ of needed rainfall.  While significant, those numbers are lower than what originally model data implied, but we’ll take what we can get to push closer to average for November rainfall.

All eyes will then shift to our second storm system that will arrive over the weekend.  There are still more questions than answers in regards to track of this next “wave” of low pressure, but with much colder air in place and pouring in behind the system, snow will fly across northern IN.  As of now we forecast the majority of this event to fall in a liquid form across central IN, but even here precipitation may end as light snow showers the way things stand now.  Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the track. Regardless, much colder air will be with us to end the period.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/17/couple-storms-to-watch-and-much-colder-air/

Nov 15

Nice Today Before Our Next Storm Arrives…

Screen Shot 2015-11-15 at 8.55.18 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful Sunday
  • Clouds and rain return
  • Colder late week
  • Eyeing a potentially wintry end to November

Our next storm system is coming ashore along the West Coast this morning.  That storm will impact our weather this week, but today we’ll focus on the sunshine and beautiful conditions.  Temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s.  With what lies ahead, we’d highly suggest taking advantage of the nice weather today and finish up any of that outdoor work you may have.

Clouds will increase Monday and the initial surge of moisture will provide showers and light rain by afternoon and evening.  A strong southerly flow continues Tuesday into Wednesday with periods of rain.  It won’t rain the entire time, but more times than not.  A push of heavy rain still appears likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The image below is a look at forecast PWATs, thanks to Weatherbell.com, for Tuesday night.  When these values reach 1.5″-2″ that’s a good indication for very heavy rains.  We’ll continue to forecast widespread 2″+ type rainfall with this storm system.

gfs_pwat_conus2_14Once this next storm moves out, we’ll get back to drier and colder times to end the work week.  Attention will then shift to a colder, potentially wintry, end to the month, including the Thanksgiving holiday. It’s too early for specifics on storminess, but model data does hint at a storm of “interest” around Thanksgiving.  With colder air making a return, it’s certainly possible this next storm has a wintry component to it…

The latest GFS ensemble temperature anomaly chart shows the colder than average pattern setting in to wrap up November.

KIND_2015111500_nxa_384

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/15/nice-today-before-our-next-storm-arrives/

Nov 13

Cold Night Coming; Next Big Storm Slated For Next Week…

Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 4.04.40 PMHighlights:

  • Moderating temperatures after a hard freeze
  • Next big storm arrives early next week
  • Wintry fun and games around Thanksgiving

Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping!  Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.

Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN.  The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.

hires_t2m_indy_19

Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week.  Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west.  We’ll continue to monitor.  Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.

ECTueNt

GFSTueNtThe differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound.  Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.

Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November.  Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/13/cold-night-coming-next-big-storm-slated-for-next-week/

Nov 12

Looking Ahead Towards Our Next Storm…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/12/looking-ahead-towards-our-next-storm/

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