Category: Autumn

Sep 17

Drying Out; Late Season Push Of Summer Air…

screen-shot-2016-09-17-at-10-22-44-amHighlights:

  • Showers become more scattered this afternoon
  • Nice Sunday on deck
  • Late season push of summer heat before cooler times

Drying Out Sunday…It was a wet and stormy night across central IN, including locally hefty rainfall totals (some neighborhoods picked up more than 2″).  We’ve been dealing with widespread soaking rain across central IN through the morning, but as we progress into the afternoon, most concentrated rain will remain east of the city and on into Ohio.  Scattered showers will remain possible until the cold front presses through the region tonight.

High pressure will build overhead Sunday and supply increasing sunshine and a pleasant second half of the weekend.  Lower humidity will promote overnight lows into the upper 50s to open the week.

A secondary (weak) front may yield an isolated to widely scattered shower Tuesday, but the bigger story will be late season heat building to close the week.  Highs will approach the 90 degree mark by Friday as a big ole ridge expands across the region.

Longer term, a significant cold front looms just beyond the current forecast period that will offer up thunderstorms and a big blast of fall-like air to close the month…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/17/drying-out-late-season-push-of-summer-air/

Sep 16

Turning Unsettled This Afternoon…

The initial push of moisture will ride into central IN this afternoon (likely between 2p-3p time frame).  Embedded thunder will be a good bet, but the storms pushing in should be in a weakened state compared to what our neighbors to our west will experience a few hours earlier.

1Periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday.  The good news?  After the initial round of showers this afternoon, most high school football games could very well be dry tonight.

2

3It won’t rain the entire time Saturday, but scattered storms are a good bet through the day.  Some locally heavy rainfall is likely, but rain amounts won’t be uniform.  On average 0.75″-1″ is a good bet.

5

kind_2016091521_tqpfSunday will be the pick of the weekend as high pressure builds in and supplies a drier air mass.  Flipping the page to next week, the big story will be a late season push of summer heat followed by a significant cold front next weekend.  Behind this front, a true push of bonafide autumn air will push in.  Sweaters and jackets will likely be needed as we put a wrap on September…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/16/turning-unsettled-this-afternoon/

Sep 15

VIDEO: Weekend Weather And Late Month Talk…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/15/video-weekend-weather-and-late-month-talk/

Sep 11

Gorgeous Open To The Week…

screen-shot-2016-09-11-at-10-24-00-amHighlights:

  • Sun-filled days
  • Crisp air
  • Midweek showers
  • Saturday rain

Fall Feel…Sprawling high pressure will supply a dry open to the week, complete with plentiful sunshine and dry air.  Conditions will be beautiful to spend time outdoors- very much like early fall.

Our next weather maker will scoot through the region Wednesday with scattered showers. Once  the front blows through, reinforcing cool air will press into the state Wednesday evening.  A few reports of upper 40s will be likely away from the city Thursday and Friday morning.

While timing is still a bit up in the air at this distance, Saturday is looking unsettled as another cold front blows through.  (Get the idea we’re in an active period)?

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/11/gorgeous-open-to-the-week/

Sep 10

Drier, Cooler Air On Our Doorstep…

screen-shot-2016-09-10-at-9-20-41-amHighlights:

  • Greatest storm coverage and intensity this morning
  • Turning much drier and cooler
  • Reinforcing mid week cool air

Turning Much Drier This Evening…It’s been a wet and stormy time of things as of late.  Locally heavy rain will continue to accompany stronger storms this morning, but we note greatest storm coverage should begin to shift ENE as the morning progresses into afternoon.  Renewed showers will likely develop this afternoon as the cold front moves through the state.  We’ll then enjoy a marked NW wind shift this evening and that will help push much drier and cooler air in to help create a true fall feel tonight.  The second half of the weekend look beautiful- sunny and crisp!

Much needed dry time will be with us for the balance of the upcoming work week.  We note a reinforcing push of cool air mid week that could spark a shower, but rainfall amounts don’t look impressive (the air will be much drier than the “soupy” feel we’ve been dealing with for the past week).  A more significant rain-maker should arrive next weekend…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1″-2″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/10/drier-cooler-air-on-our-doorstep/

Sep 08

Periods Of Heavy Rain Then Much Cooler…

A “wavy” frontal boundary will be located over our region through the next 36-48 hours before getting a “shove” south from a cold front Saturday. 


The combination of the stationary front along with a tropical-rich air mass in place will be enough in and of itself to produce periods of heavy rain today into Saturday morning. Add in a couple of disturbances moving along the boundary and the heavy rain prospects grow even higher. A strong to severe storm also can’t be ruled out-primarily this afternoon and again Friday afternoon. 

Already this morning (6:30a) we note widespread showers and embedded thunder impacting IL and northern IN. 


As mentioned, the air mass is plenty “juicy” to fuel locally heavy rain through the period. Precipitable water values (PWATs) will surge north of 2″ for all of central IN later today. 


While it won’t rain the entire time, periods of heavy rain will remain in our forecast today through Saturday morning. Widespread 1″-2″ totals will be common, with locally heavier totals. 


High pressure will build overhead Sunday and lead to quite the change. A much cooler and drier air mass will return along with brighter skies to wrap up the weekend. 


Lows in the middle 50s will be common for the city, itself, Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Upper 40s to lower 50s are a good bet away from the metro. 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/08/periods-of-heavy-rain-then-much-cooler/

Sep 06

Tuesday Evening Weather Notebook…

It’s been a cool and dry start to the month of September. Through the first few days, IND is running 0.70° below normal and 0.44″ below average precipitation. 


The upper ridge currently in place will deliver more late summer heat through the end of the work week. It’ll remain mostly dry, as well. 


Much better rain and storm chances will have to be built into our forecast Friday into Saturday, courtesy of a cold front moving into the region. 


A much cooler regime will settle into the region over the weekend. Highs behind the front in the 70s with lows in the 50s will be common- after rain potential of 1″-1.5″ for most. 


A reinforcing shot of cool air will arrive the middle of the following week. Early indications suggest the second shot of fall-like air will be even cooler than this weekends’ and could feature widespread 40s at night. 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/06/tuesday-evening-weather-notebook/

Sep 03

Warmth Next Week Gives Way To A Cool Mid Month…

The refreshingly cool couple days we’ve recently enjoyed will begin to give way to moderating temperatures today.  Humidity levels will remain pleasant and it’ll be a great Labor Day weekend to spend time outdoors.  Highs will top out around 80 today and into the middle 80s Sunday.  Labor Day will feature the mercury climbing closer to the 90 degree mark.  – Fitting, I suppose, for the unofficial end to summer.

Humidity levels will be on the uptick come Monday evening and Tuesday as Gulf moisture is transported northward.

GulfMoistureIt’ll be a downright hot week, as well.  Temperatures will top out around 90 through the end of the short work week.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_4As we rumble into next weekend and the following week indications continue to point towards wetter and cooler times.

After a dry week ahead, rain and storms will come with that increased humidity next weekend.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_7Early numbers off the press suggest 1″-2″ rains possible next weekend.

The increased rain and storm chances signal another shift in the pattern towards a cooler one just beyond the Day 10 period.  From experience, I would look for this trough around mid month to trend deeper (more significant) as time draws closer.

gfs-ens_z500a_us_47It’s possible the first push of widespread 40s loom around the middle of the month.  Time will tell…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/03/warmth-next-week-gives-way-to-a-cool-mid-month/

Sep 01

VIDEO: More on Hermine and the Labor Day Weekend…

 

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/01/video-more-on-hermine-and-the-labor-day-weekend/

Sep 01

Meteorological Fall Begins With A Fall-Like Feel…

Meteorological fall runs from Sept. 1st through Nov. 30th. With that said, it’s only fitting we feel more fall-like on this the first day of meteorological fall.  We note 24 hour dew point changes below.  The browns indicate much drier air pressing south over the next 24-36 hours.

DryAirYou’ll definitely notice the drier, crisp feel to the air upon stepping outside this morning.  If you try hard enough, you can almost smell fall!  🙂

That drier air will support multiple nights with low temperatures into the lower and middle 50s tonight through Sunday morning.  We may even have a few neighborhoods dip into the upper 40s Friday or Saturday morning.

hires_t2m_indy_55We know this is the beginning of the transitional time of the year.  Eventually, these cold fronts will back more and more of a punch as we rumble deeper into fall.  On the flip side, summer isn’t ready to go away without a fight.  In fact, temperatures well above normal will return for Labor Day, itself, and continue into the majority of next week.  A string of highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common next week.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6Longer term, there are indications that continue to support the idea of a potentially more significant cool down around mid September.  Stay tuned…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/01/meteorological-fall-begins-with-a-fall-like-feel/

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