Unseasonably Cool; Irma Dominates Headlines…Upper level energy did, indeed, spark a couple of showers (even some small hail was reported in stronger showers) Wednesday evening. Here at IndyWx.com HQ, we picked up a quick half inch of much needed rainfall! While a couple of showers are possible once again this afternoon, these will be primarily confined to northern portions of the state. Otherwise, the balance of the upcoming forecast period is easy through the weekend: dry with reinforcing cool air arriving over the weekend.
Hurricane Irma will continue to dominate the headlines and will require our focus, locally, for potential impacts early next week. While we’ve built rain into our forecast Tuesday into Wednesday, it’s crucial to note this is an incredibly tough forecast and will require a great deal of fine tuning as we move forward. With that said, a blend of latest data and upper air analysis does suggest portions of the region (particularly eastern areas of the state) do stand a chance to get in on the action of Irma’s remnants Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Otherwise, breezy easterly winds are expected for the entire region beginning Monday evening. Stay tuned as we continue to analyze things. Thoughts and prayers are certainly with residents and family along the Southeast coast from southern FL to the Carolinas, including the southern Appalachian region. Speaking of, it should be noted Irma’s impacts will stretch well inland. Irma is forecast to remain a major hurricane wherever she comes ashore (window of opportunity for landfall up from the southern tip of FL all the way up to the Carolina coastline) and her forward speed into the southern Appalachians will combine with the rugged terrain and high elevations to create significant problems inland given the most up-to-date forecast track.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Snowfall: 0.00″
Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″ (highly dependent on where Irma’s remnants track)
Jackets Required…Hoosiers are waking up to temperatures all the way down into the middle and upper 40s away from the city this morning (sure is hard to beat this crisp fall air). Sunshine will greet us out the door, but we’ll notice increasing cloudiness this afternoon and widely scattered thundershowers will follow. Most will stay dry, but enough upper level energy will interact with the cool air aloft to generate “pop corn” variety thundershowers this afternoon and evening. Additionally, highs in the mid 60s today and Thursday will be more like mid-October than early-September.
There’s no reason to waste a lot of pixels on the rest of the forecast period. Dry weather will dominate. Reinforcing cool air will arrive by the weekend and that cooler than average feel will remain throughout the forecast period. We’ll notice a gusty easterly wind at times late in the weekend and early next week as the pressure gradient tightens a bit between an area of high pressure to our northeast and Irma moving north into the Southeast.
Tropics: Irma continues to dominate the headlines, and rightfully so. This morning we have (2) additional storms: Jose and Katia. Jose is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, but should remain a “fish storm.” Katia will meander around the Bay of Campeche over the next few days and doesn’t pose a threat to the US.
Irma remains a category 5 beast this morning and overnight data continues to paint an ominous picture for the southeastern coast. Folks from the southern FL peninsula all the way up the coast to include the Carolinas need to remain abreast of the latest developments on Irma in the days ahead. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Friday evening for southern Florida. Eventually, more of the southeast can expect impacts from Irma late weekend and next week, including interior areas such as the southern Appalachians…
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More Like October Than September…A cold front moved through the region last night. As expected, there were “haves and have nots” with the frontal passage, including some rainfall totals over 2″ (especially north and east of the city) while other neighborhoods barely picked up a tenth of an inch.
Northwest winds are blowing now and ushering in much cooler temperatures that will be with us through the forecast period. In fact, temperatures will turn so cool it’ll feel more like October (especially Wednesday and Thursday) than September. Additionally, upper level energy will help create scattered showers Wednesday (not a big deal).
Dry conditions will return as we wrap up the work week and head into early next week. Reinforcing cool air will arrive this weekend and we’ll also note a gusty easterly wind at times, thanks to the circulation between a high off to our northeast and Irma pushing north across the southeast region.
Tropics: Speaking of Irma, she continues to strengthen this morning and very near category 5 status. Preparations should be underway across the Florida peninsula now. We still have time to watch things unfold, but it’s looking increasingly likely that southern Florida will begin to feel tropical storm force winds as early as Friday, followed by a potential landfalling major hurricane over the weekend.
The Storm Prediction Center includes an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across north-central parts of the state this evening. Damaging winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms embedded in a squall line that will move from north to south this evening (generally between 6p-midnight).
MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week. Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.
Today will be dry and pleasant and most of Labor Day, itself, will follow suit. We’ll notice an increasingly gusty southwest wind by afternoon and this will help boost temperatures into the upper 80s Monday afternoon.
However, once to Labor Day evening, attention will shift off to our north as a line of thunderstorms approaches. A few embedded storms within this line may reach strong-to-severe levels. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms. The Storm Prediction Center has included the region in a Slight Risk of severe weather Monday evening.
After a mostly dry and warm Labor Day, we’ll focus on the evening hours (bracketing 6p-10p) for storms to rumble in. As mentioned, a couple of these could reach strong to severe levels.
6p forecast radar
8p forecast radar
9p forecast radar
10p forecast radar
Once the front blows through, our winds will shift to the northwest and help usher in a much cooler air mass. Average highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s don’t occur until early-October. We’ll be around 30 days ahead of schedule throughout the majority of the upcoming week, as overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50 and highs in the upper 60s to around 70 will be common.
Improving Skies West To East Today…The remnants of Harvey led to heavy, wind-whipped, rain across southern and southeastern portions of the state Friday. Appropriately, today is the “transition day” towards brighter and briefly warmer times as Labor Day approaches. We’ll notice improving sky conditions from west to east today as the remnants of Harvey continue to track east. Today also won’t be nearly as windy as Friday. We awoke to temperatures at mid-October levels, including many in the 40s across central Indiana this morning. Despite the increasing sunshine, temperatures will run around 10° below average this afternoon.
A cold front will approach late Labor Day night and early Tuesday. Sunshine will dominate Monday, but we will note an increasingly gusty SW breeze by afternoon as the cold front draws closer. That front will slide through Tuesday and could have a scattered shower or thunderstorm with it as it passes (best chances of storms will be across the southern half of the state). Behind the frontal boundary, another shot of well below normal air (October-like) will descend into the region. With cold air aloft and just enough upper level energy around, widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday.
Tropics: Irma will dominate weather headlines during the upcoming week. It’s far too early to know precisely where Irma will track, but folks with interests along the East Coast (from the southern FL peninsula all the way up to the north Atlantic coast) should monitor the progress of Irma closely. In addition to the likelihood of a major hurricane, the overall size of Irma will become larger as the week progresses.
Is It The First Of September Or October?! Harvey’s remnants will track northeast along the Ohio River (tonight) and into the central Appalachians (Saturday). The combination of a tight pressure gradient between the circulation around what’s left of Harvey and an area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will result in strong and gusty easterly winds to wrap up the work week. Factor in temperatures that will run close to 20° below normal and jackets will be required today! We don’t have any changes in regards to our rainfall forecast: heaviest and steadiest rain will remain downstate. Lighter showers will begin to overspread central parts of the state, including Indianapolis, later this evening.
Early showers will pull off to the east Saturday and we should end the day with increasing sunshine. Those improvements will continue Sunday into Labor Day with dry conditions.
A cold front will approach early next week and result in an increasingly windy regime Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The front will sweep through the state Tuesday with a broken band of showers and thunderstorms followed by another shot of unseasonably cool air by the middle of next week. Lingering upper level energy will result in spotty showers Wednesday with the cooler conditions.
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Gearing up for a strong cold front just after Labor Day
Calm Before The Storm…Weak high pressure will control our midweek weather. Patchy fog will eventually burn off to partly cloudy conditions this afternoon. A backdoor cold front will, uneventfully, slip through the state Thursday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Thursday afternoon, but most neighborhoods should remain rain-free.
Then our attention turns to Harvey’s remnants. The greatest impact on central Indiana will be unseasonably cool temperatures and strong and gusty easterly winds. While the precipitation shield should encompass all of central Indiana, we still believe this will be more “showery” in nature for the city and points north, including north-central parts of the state. Steadier and heavier rains are likely across southern and southeastern portions of the state (where the axis of 2″+ totals will be likely). The combination of high pressure located to our northeast and Harvey’s circulation passing along the Ohio River will result in a very stiff easterly flow Friday. Expect temperatures in the 50s most of the day with gusts over 30 MPH at times. Have the jackets and sweaters ready.
Moisture will begin to pull east of the region Saturday, but we’ll include the chance of morning showers.
We’ll be in between storms Sunday and Labor Day, itself. Dry and pleasant conditions can be expected before a strong cold front moves through the state Tuesday. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm will accompany this frontal passage, followed by the coolest air since last spring by the middle of next week. Get set for an October-like feel…
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MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week. Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.
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