As attention turns to the 4th of July holiday, there aren’t any changes to the ongoing idea of a significant heat wave gripping the region.
A strong ridge of high pressure will anchor itself over the Ohio Valley during this time frame and help power a big time period of hot and mostly dry weather. It’s the type of pattern that has legs to promote multiple days of highs in the middle to upper 90s across central Indiana. With tropical dew points in place, overnight lows won’t be allowed to fall much below the middle 70s during the height of the heat wave. Heat indices will rise into the lower 100s to near 110° at times.
Take this period of heat seriously. With many area festivals, firework shows, and events going on during the holiday week, it’ll be important to have a means of keeping cool. Simply put, this kind of heat wave doesn’t come around every year (and thank heavens for that).
With the hot dome centered over the Ohio Valley, it’ll really help to limit shower and thunderstorm chances. That’s not to say isolated coverage of cooling thunderstorms won’t occur on occasion during the afternoon and evening, but widespread rain of significance won’t be around during the period. Thankfully, the recent wet pattern and additional storm complexes coming in Tuesday into Wednesday have and will help surface moisture levels. Had we not seen the recent wet shift over the past couple weeks, you could easily tack on an additional 3° to 5°…
For those longing for the cool, crisp days of fall, hang in there. Heck, it’s only 69 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers tee it up and kick it off against the University of Washington… I am one that says “bring it on!”
More specific to Indianapolis, here’s the monthly temperature breakdown so far for 2018:
While we have conflicting temperature ideas, both suggest a drier than average month emerging:
At the end of the day, our call on May’s forecast from mid-April would be for an early cooler than average start before flipping towards more of a seasonable to slightly warmer than normal regime. Our idea all along this spring has been that when this pattern flips, the potential is present to jump right to a summery feel. In the face of the new European Weeklies, we still feel this warmer idea mid and late May is on the table. We’re in agreement with the data of a drier than average month.
Highlights:
Highlights:
When we look ahead, the shelf life of this warmth is certainly limited. The GEFS showcases this shift in the pattern from a warm open to the month towards a much colder pattern very nicely. The GEFS has other model support, as well.
This is the type of dramatic shift in the overall pattern that not only threatens to “lock in” a colder than average regime, but potentially lead to plenty of wintry mischief to boot, and just in time for the holiday season.
To summarize, while unseasonably quiet and mild conditions will rule in the short-term, Mother Nature sure seems to have an attitude of making up for “lost time” in the medium to longer range. This is the type pattern that we’ll have to monitor the potential of some sort of leader-follower scenario as the transition from warm to cold takes place, and given the blocky nature of the pattern, it sure seems like we’re heading into a busy time of things from a wintry perspective mid and late month.
Highlights: