The first accumulating snow event of the young 2018-2019 season is upon us. Thankfully, this won’t be any sort of “blockbuster” storm, but instead serve to gently “ease us” into the new snow season.
Upper level energy will eject out of the Plains today and push towards the Ohio Valley Monday. At the same time, surface low pressure will develop along the Gulf Coast before scooting off to the eastern seaboard and tracking north Monday night and Tuesday. Initially, it’ll take some time to moisten up what will be a relatively dry air mass, but a mix of cold rain and wet snow should begin making it to the surface during the late morning and early afternoon.
8a forecast radar. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com.
Precipitation will become more widespread as we push into the late afternoon and early evening hours with the predominant precipitation type by this time falling in the form of snow across central Indiana- including Indianapolis.
6p forecast radar. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com.
Widespread light snow will be falling tomorrow night across the region.
Forecast radar 10p Monday. Image courtesy of Weathermodels.com.
Snow will begin to diminish after midnight and by the time all is said and done, we forecast a general 1″ to 2″ across most of central Indiana. (Some localized lake effect snow showers may add to additional accumulation across north-central portions the central IN Tuesday morning into the afternoon).
We’re left with unseasonably cold conditions through the remainder of the week, followed by reinforcing cold air arriving next weekend…
The bigger story will be localized, but intense snow bursts that will likely develop as the true push of arctic air arrives Friday evening. These will be accompanied by strong and gusty winds, as well.
We’ll awake to temperatures in the lower 20s across most of central Indiana Saturday morning. By this point in time, attention will shift to what awaits during early stages of the new work week. While details are murky with respect to the specifics associated with an eastern storm, cold air will be reinforced Monday night into Tuesday.
Keep a note in the back of your mind to check back often over the weekend concerning the forecast for early next week. Model bias (“progressive” GFS; “sluggish” Euro) appears to be running rampant from this distance and what will likely be the ultimate result is something in between. The sensible weather that would result is the opportunity for perhaps a better chance of more widespread accumulating snow across portions of the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday.
Additional rainfall totals of 1″ to 2″ with locally heavier amounts are a good bet in that Monday night – Tuesday time frame.
While we’ll certainly turn colder behind this storm system, the true early season push of arctic air will wait a couple of days to arrive- Thursday afternoon into Friday. Not only will this be the coldest air of the season (lower-middle 20s Friday morning and likely colder next Saturday), but the first flakes of the season are also likely to fly across central Indiana to wrap up the work week. Furthermore, 
Don’t look now, but more “fun and games” await the following week…
II. Wet Halloween: A cold front will approach the state Tuesday evening into our Halloween. Widespread rain is expected Wednesday, BUT the silver lining may be that the bulk of precipitation will be shoved to our southeast before most trick-or-treaters take to the streets.
III. Chilly Open To November: Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town behind the cold front and set the stage for an unseasonably chilly open to November. Generally, lows will fall into the middle 30s and highs will top out in the upper 40s for the first few days of the month.
IV. Raw Saturday: It’s a “rinse and repeat” scenario as next weekend opens raw and wet thanks to a new storm system moving through the region. Gusty showers and unseasonably cool temperatures can be expected Saturday. Note the possibility of wet snow to fall on the northern periphery of the storm system through IA, MN, and WI. (Signs of the times).
V. Wet Pattern: After a long stretch of dry weather through the balance of October, a big shift in the pattern is taking place now and will continue to promote well above normal rainfall as we move through the first couple weeks of November. In some cases, the upcoming (10) days alone may yield 3″ to 4″ of rain in some areas of the region.