Category: Autumn

Jul 27

A Different Kind Of “Dog Days” This Year…

Late July and August have been known to produce some serious heat around these parts from time to time. However, it continues to look like this will not be the case this year.

We’ve already discussed the impacts of the negative EPO. (By the way, modeling continues to take the EPO even more strongly negative with every passing update). This supports the cooler idea we have for early August.

Now we see the PNA forecast to trend more positive through the better part of early August. This, too, supports the cooler pattern that will be with us through the period.

It should come as no surprise to see the models trend stronger with the eastern trough in the Weeks 2-3 time period. This period will likely feature a couple of strong frontal passages that serve as a reminder that the fall season is just around the corner.

Note the latest GEFS deepen the trough from the Day 5-10 period to Days 10-15.

Not only will this serve to provide a rather lengthy period of cooler than normal temperatures through the 1st half of August, but should also help inject wetter conditions to boot (in large part due to the frequent nature of frontal passages).

At a time of year that can feature brutal periods of heat and/ or dry conditions, it sure continues to be the exact opposite this year!

Enjoy your Saturday, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/27/a-different-kind-of-dog-days-this-year/

Jul 25

VIDEO: Reinforcing Cool Pattern Develops Through Early August…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/25/video-reinforcing-cool-pattern-develops-through-early-august/

Jul 24

VIDEO: Dry Pattern Through The Weekend; Timing Out When Storms Return…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/24/video-dry-pattern-through-the-weekend-timing-out-when-storms-return/

Jul 22

Dinnertime Rambles: Quiet Through The Short-Term And Longer Range Musings…

I. Drier air continues to surge south and with it will come much cooler temperatures overnight into Tuesday morning. We still believe most central Indiana reporting sites will fall into the middle 50s Tuesday morning. Turn off that A/C and open up those windows!

II. Weak upper level energy will push south and lead to isolated to widely scattered instability-driven showers across northern parts of the state tomorrow afternoon. A couple of these quick-moving showers could scoot into central Indiana, but we continue to believe most will remain free of any precipitation tomorrow.

III. Overall, we’re looking at a very quiet weather pattern through the weekend with an extended period of dry weather, thanks to high pressure. Temperatures will slowly warm from the unseasonably cool and refreshing levels into mid week to more of a seasonal feel this weekend.

IV. As we look ahead, the upper air pattern should transition to more of a classic summer-like regime to open August. However, data shows the ridge continuing to “retrograde” west with time, resulting in a period of wetter conditions with a northwest flow aloft Days 10-15 (roughly Aug 2nd- Aug 7th). It’s always good to see agreement between the European and GFS ensemble products below.

V. Research continues on the upcoming fall and winter and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to ignore the warm sea-surface temperatures across the northeastern Pacific. Interestingly, most seasonal model data maintains this warm “blob” into the late fall and early winter. Note where we are currently (center photo) vs. where the projection off the UKMET (top left) for Oct-Dec and European (bottom left) for Nov-Jan.

While only 1 of several ingredients used in building our seasonal outlooks, this can promote the tendency for more persistent western ridging and downstream trough (associated colder pattern) across the East…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/22/dinnertime-rambles-quiet-through-the-short-term-and-longer-range-musings/

Jun 14

Fall-Like Conditions Set To Be Replaced By Periods Of Heavy Rain…

Temperatures are in the 40s area-wide this morning across central Indiana. Speaking of the 40s, they extend all the way south into the north Georgia mountains as we start our Friday. (Hard to believe for mid June). Widespread below normal temperatures continue to dominate the eastern portion of the country.

High pressure will remain in control of our weather today and help feature dry conditions with plentiful sunshine and pleasant temperatures. Highs today will top out in the middle 70s after the crisp start to the day.

Unfortunately, the cool, dry conditions will quickly give way to an increasingly moist airmass overnight into Saturday morning and rain will follow. The reason? We’ll be on the backside of the area of high pressure with a southwest flow aloft helping transport moisture northeast into the Ohio Valley. At the same time, a series of warm fronts will pass over the weekend, featuring periods of more concentrated storms and associated heavy rainfall. Finally, a cold front will push south Sunday into Monday before stalling out just south of our area Tuesday.

While this may provide a briefly drier period Tuesday, we’ll have to contend with periods of heavy rain and storms before hand. More specific around timing, we think rain may begin as early as 11p to midnight this evening before becoming more widespread and heavier Saturday morning. We’d suggest having a Plan B for outdoor activities this weekend as more time than not, it’ll likely be raining across central Indiana.

As mentioned earlier, we’ll replace the cool, dry air mass with more of a tropical feel this weekend and at times precipitable water values (PWATs) will approach 2″. This raises our confidence in the potential and likelihood of heavy rainfall.

Widespread 1″ to 2″ rainfall totals can be expected across central Indiana this weekend, with locally heavier amounts. After a briefly drier period Tuesday, rain will return by the middle of next week. Unfortunately, widespread 7-day totals (ending Thursday night) will likely be in the 2.5″ to 3.5″ range across central Indiana…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/14/fall-like-conditions-set-to-be-replaced-by-periods-of-heavy-rain/

Jun 13

VIDEO: Fall-Like Close To The Work Week Gives Way To An Unsettled Weekend; Reviewing Updated Data Into The Fall…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/13/video-fall-like-close-to-the-work-week-gives-way-to-an-unsettled-weekend-reviewing-updated-data-into-the-fall/

Jun 11

Unseasonably Cool; Talking Rain Chances Into Early Next Week…

We’re enjoying unseasonably cool and refreshing air this morning (to the tune of 10-15 degrees below average across central Indiana). The extent of the refreshingly cool air is impressive- spanning all the way into northern TX and parts of OK this morning!

A gorgeous day is on tap with plentiful sunshine and low humidity. Unfortunately, rain still appears to return to the picture on Wednesday. Scattered showers will be most numerous Wednesday afternoon, continuing into Thursday morning. Rainfall should average between 0.10″ to 0.25″ for most central Indiana rain gauges with a few heavier totals across eastern areas.

The cold front and upper level energy associated for delivering the Wednesday rain will swing through here early Thursday, resulting in a gusty northwesterly wind and fall-like air through the day. Highs will only top out in the mid-upper 60s and lows Friday morning will fall into the upper 40s.

High pressure will remain in control of our weather to close the work week, but as we’ve grown all too accustomed to over the past couple of months, we don’t expect prolonged dry time. Instead, our weather will turn unsettled yet again over the weekend into early next week. With a moist southwesterly air flow returning, periods of locally heavy rain can be expected in this setup.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/06/11/unseasonably-cool-talking-rain-chances-into-early-next-week/

Nov 29

Unsettled Weekend Is Highlighted By Saturday Storms…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/11/29/unsettled-weekend-is-highlighted-by-saturday-storms/

Nov 27

More Snow For Some Early Wednesday; Briefly Milder Then Perhaps Something More Interesting…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/11/27/more-snow-for-some-early-wednesday-briefly-milder-then-perhaps-something-more-interesting/

Nov 26

Cold Gives Way To Milder Air And Rain…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/11/26/cold-gives-way-to-milder-air-and-rain/

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