You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: Autumn
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/04/video-fall-like-air-blows-into-town-looking-ahead-to-our-next-rain-chances/
Sep 03
Pulling The Curtain Back On The Medium Range Pattern…
A cold front will sink south across the state this evening. As the front moves through the area, we expect thunderstorms to increase in coverage and intensity across northern Indiana over the next few hours. These storms should push off to the south during the overnight, weakening as they do so. We still aren’t expecting much in the way of widespread severe weather across immediate central Indiana.
Once the front passes, northwest winds will take over during the predawn hours and help push a drier and cooler brand of air south into the region.
Thereafter, get used to unseasonably cool air, to the tune of what we’d normally expect by late September, for the 2nd half of the week- including this weekend. Mostly dry weather is expected to prevail through the period.
As we look ahead to next week, moderating temperatures are expected next Tuesday and Wednesday, including lower to middle 80s. That said, we do have questions if the warmth will have staying power.
We note the MJO “toying around” with the warmer Phase 6 for a time before returning to Phase 5 (a cooler phase this time of year).
Add in the fact that the EPS and GEFS are in disagreement in handling the EPO in the medium term and this results in lower confidence in the overall staying power of the warmth come mid month.
Unfortunately, this time of year, the tools we can really “lean on” for indications of where the longer range pattern will head are limited (compared to late fall through early spring). That’s when we can really focus on the other drivers such as the AO, NAO, PNA, recurving WPAC tropical activity, etc.
As such, while we continue to believe the pattern trends warmer after the cool spell into the weekend, patience is required with respect to the staying power of said warmth…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/03/pulling-the-curtain-back-on-the-medium-range-pattern/
Sep 03
VIDEO: Watching For Storms Tonight Then A Quiet, Cooler Rest Of The Week…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/03/video-watching-for-storms-tonight-then-a-quiet-cooler-rest-of-the-week/
Sep 02
More On Our September Outlook…
For those that didn’t have a chance to catch Sunday’s video update, we wanted to take the time this evening to review our September Outlook.
Specific to Indiana, we’re expecting an overall warmer than normal and drier than average 1st month of meteorological fall:
That’s not without an early cool snap to start the month. Typically, we’d expect lows around 60 and highs in the lower 80s through the first 1/3 of the month, but that won’t be the case this year. Instead, look for a rather lengthy period of lows in the lower-middle 50s (even a few nights in the upper 40s) and highs in the lower-middle 70s. This is all thanks to the negative EPO that’s currently in place.
Notice though how the EPO trends positive towards mid-month. This would suggest warmer times are on the horizon after the unseasonably cool open to September. Sure enough, latest ensemble data is in agreement with this look.
With the period of moderation, we’re likely also going to head back into a wetter pattern- at least compared to how we open the month of September.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/02/more-on-our-september-outlook/
Sep 01
VIDEO: Wet Sunday And Reviewing Our Official September Outlook…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/09/01/video-wet-sunday-and-reviewing-our-official-september-outlook/
Aug 31
VIDEO: True Fall-Like Feel Blows Into Town Next Week…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/31/video-true-fall-like-feel-blows-into-town-next-week/
Aug 30
VIDEO: Sunday Storm Threat; Latest On Dorian, And Looking Ahead To A Cool Shift Next Week…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/30/video-sunday-storm-threat-latest-on-dorian-and-looking-ahead-to-a-cool-shift-next-week/
Aug 30
Widely Scattered Light Showers Through Labor Day Weekend; Tracking A Strong Cold Front Late Next Week…
A frontal boundary will continue to settle south this morning and we’ll notice a much less humid feel tonight into Saturday morning as a northeast wind takes hold.
Widely scattered light showers will scoot across the state late tonight into Saturday morning.
We’re still not expecting heavy or widespread organized rain this Labor Day weekend- just widely scattered “nuisance” level showers at times. There will be many more dry hours than wet through the holiday weekend.
Most area rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.25″ and 0.50″ by Monday afternoon.
The big story this weekend will be Hurricane Dorian. We anticipate Dorian to strengthen into a major hurricane later today. The latest official National Hurricane Center forecast brings Dorian into the southeast Florida peninsula as a major hurricane late Labor Day night or Tuesday. While confidence continues to increase on an eventual landfall along the Florida peninsula (before a hard turn right that would take Dorian either north across the peninsula or perhaps wobble back off shore), timing is much more uncertain as the majority of data has slowed the forward progress of Dorian this weekend. If you have interests across the state or loved ones in the path of the storm, it’ll be important to stay tuned for future updates.
Back here on the home front, quiet weather is expected through early week. The first of 2 cold fronts will pass Tuesday night or early Wednesday (little in the way of fanfare with that frontal passage).
The second front will be a bigger deal late next week. Though still rather moisture starved, it’s the drop in temperatures expected behind the frontal passage that will be impressive. We’ll notice an October-level chill next weekend as this front sweeps off to the southeast. We note the latest European data has highs only in the 60s next weekend with lows in the 40s.
Meanwhile, it’s very possible we’ll still be dealing with Dorian this time next week along the southeast US costal region…
Much more through the weekend, including updates on Dorian, the season’s 1st strong fall frontal passage, and our September Outlook.
Enjoy your Friday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/30/widely-scattered-light-showers-through-labor-day-weekend-tracking-a-strong-cold-front-late-next-week/
Aug 29
VIDEO: Latest Thoughts Into The 1st Month Of Meteorological Fall…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/29/video-latest-thoughts-into-the-1st-month-of-meteorological-fall/
Aug 28
Gorgeous Midweek Weather; All Eyes On Dorian As We Move Through Labor Day Weekend…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/08/28/gorgeous-midweek-weather-all-eyes-on-dorian-as-we-move-through-labor-day-weekend/