Category: Autumn

The Theme Of The Summer Rolls Along…

Updated 08.16.23 @ 7:26a

Most Hoosiers woke up to a hint of autumn this morning. We’re getting to that point on the calendar where we typically hear that most aren’t ready for the cooler days of autumn that are literally on the doorstep. If you find yourself in that club, take heart in knowing the hottest air of the season awaits next week as an upper level ridge expands overhead for a period of time.

This should feature multiple days next week with high temperatures into the low-mid 90s, however, this will at least be a “drier” heat compared to most other spells this summer. Most, if not all, of next week will be free of any rain along with plentiful sunshine. Aside from the big time heat, a quiet week is in store.

In looking at the long range charts, we see something similar with the ‘mean’ ridge position as it retrogrades west towards the Day 10-15 period. This should pull the more significant heat west and open us up for wetter times as we push into early September.

Perhaps the threat of some late summer/ early autumn ridge riding storm complexes are in our future? Regardless, while the upcoming week will feature significant heat, like so many other patterns this summer, there continues to be a light at the end of the hot tunnel before the “hot” pattern begins.

  • Another note that will require our attention over the course of the upcoming couple weeks? The tropics. After a very quiet time of things, it sure appears as if activity will be on the uptick just in time for us to approach the peak of the season.

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Multiple Rounds Of Strong-Severe Storms This Weekend; Autumn Rambles…

Updated 08.05.23 @ 10:20a

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Brief Break In The Pattern Gives Us Time To Look Ahead To The Remainder Of Met. Summer; Open To Autumn…

Updated 07.04.23 @ 6:14a

There’s something about the 4th of July that signals a shift within. It’s been this way for me since back in the high school days. Back then, the following week meant 2-a-days were beginning as a new football season was only a few weeks away. Fast forward to today, and I understand some of the big box retailers are preparing to display their fall and Halloween decor over the next couple weeks. SEC Media Days, the unofficial “official” start of the college football season gets rolling in Nashville on July 17th. Heck, before you know it, we’ll be producing our annual winter outlook.

Okay, back to present.

As the Nino continues to mature, we believe the rest of meteorological summer (through end of month August) continues to keep any significant or long lasting heat away from our neck of the woods. In addition, the dry stretch that typically develops at some point each and every summer is also behind us. Simply put, the next 6-7 weeks appear to run near normal from a temperature standpoint and slightly above to above normal from a precipitation perspective. Overall, I prefer to lean on the latest JMA monthly product.

July

Temperatures

Precipitation

August

Temperatures

Precipitation

As we look ahead to autumn, the early call is for a warmer than normal open to fall as a whole. Certainly fits the bill with recent autumn trends…

We note both the JMA and latest European Seasonal product going towards this mild look. More on the entire fall seasonal outlook over the next few weeks.

From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a blessed Independence Day! A fresh batch of storms arrive later Wednesday and our short-term update later tonight will handle the latest look there.

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VIDEO: Nicole Makes Landfall Along The Eastern FL Peninsula Midweek; MUCH Colder Pattern Emerges Over The Weekend…

Updated 11.07.22 @ 7:03a

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The Transition To Winter…

Updated 11.06.22 @ 10:47a

“Wintry” is certainly not a word that comes to mind when describing the first week of November ‘22. Indianapolis is running a whopping 11.4° above normal month to date.

The upcoming several days will feature additional well above normal warmth, including highs in the mid 60s to around 70°. The reasons behind the warmth have been well advertised between the MJO and teleconnections. This is all part and parcel to the SST configuration, including the 3rd consecutive La Niña fall.

But things are changing now and arriving right on schedule. It’s wild, really, when you think of the ability to find answers to the future (upcoming pattern evolution) by looking back at the past.

We note the teleconnections are now beginning to align in a manner that will drive colder than normal conditions east. The MJO also has a look that will try and circle back into Phase 6 mid to late month. To add to the complexity of the pattern transition, a late season hurricane will likely hit the Florida peninsula mid to late week before recurving up the eastern seaboard.

A cold front will blow through the state Friday and while it’ll likely be moisture starved, unlike this past front, there will be a sharp temperature drop behind the frontal passage over the weekend.

How about a week from today highs are only in the mid-upper 30s and lows may dip into the upper 10s and lower 20s. Indications are that the overall colder than normal regime will have staying power, too. While wholesale pattern transitions can be finicky at the onset, there’s a belief on this front that the overall regime will feature more sustainable cold and eventually opportunities for wintry precipitation as we close November and open up December.

There’s no change to the ideas here of the bulk of the holiday season this year (Thanksgiving to New Years) providing above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures. At the very least, there should be a lot of “fun and games” ahead over the upcoming weeks.

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