Category: Autumn

Oct 16

Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…

Updated 10.16.21 @ 8:10a

The upcoming 7-day will feature a trough of low pressure along the eastern seaboard and a new trough pushing into the West. In between, transitional ridging will take place through the central.
Above average temperatures will be found across the northern tier with below normal air strung across the south.
Most of the country can expect below normal precipitation this week. The exception being northern New England and the far PAC NW.
We forecast between 0.10″ and 0.20″ of rain here in central Indiana during the 7-day period. That will be associated with a low pressure system and associated cold front Thursday.

Forecast Period: 10.16.21 through 10.23.21

A true fall cold front blew through the region during the overnight. You can certainly feel the difference out the door this morning as northwest winds blow the chilly, much drier air into the region. Highs today will struggle to crack the 60° mark. “Sweater weather, anyone?!” We’ll prep for the first round of patchy frost in outlying areas by Sunday morning as temperatures dip into the mid and upper 30s, winds go calm, and skies are clear.

As we head into the new week, much needed dry time can be expected to open things up as high pressure dominates. Look for a string of sunny days and cool, clear nights. This will give the “nudge” needed to ignite what’s otherwise been a delayed and sluggish fall foliage season.

Our next system of note will arrive Thursday in the form of a low pressure system and trailing cold front. Showers are expected to arrive Thursday morning from the west. We’re not talking about impressive rainfall numbers with the front, itself (on the order of 0.10″ to 0.20″ Thursday), but the period heading into next weekend remains in limbo between forecast models duking it out with the wetter GFS and drier European. We’ll see if we can get more agreement over the next day or two.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/16/weekly-agwx-and-harvest21-outlook-7/

Oct 15

VIDEO: Wet And Stormy Close To The Work Week; Frost On The Pumpkin Sunday? Next System Arrives Thursday…

Updated 10.15.21 @ 7:48a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/15/video-wet-and-stormy-close-to-the-work-week-frost-on-the-pumpkin-sunday-next-system-arrives-thursday/

Oct 14

VIDEO: Stormy Close To The Work Week Delivers Cooler Air For The Weekend…

Updated 10.14.21 @ 7:55a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/14/video-stormy-close-to-the-work-week-delivers-cooler-air-for-the-weekend/

Oct 13

VIDEO: Heavier Rain Arrives Friday; More Seasonal Weekend Ahead…

Updated 10.13.21 @ 7:30a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/13/video-heavier-rain-arrives-friday-more-seasonal-weekend-ahead/

Oct 12

VIDEO: Tracking Another System To Close The Work Week; Drier, Cooler Weekend On Tap…

Updated 10.12.21 @ 7a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/12/video-tracking-another-system-to-close-the-work-week-drier-cooler-weekend-on-tap/

Oct 11

VIDEO: Storms Arrive This Afternoon And Evening; Tracking A Cooler Push Of Air For The Weekend…

Updated 10.11.21 @ 12a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/11/video-storms-arrive-this-afternoon-and-evening-tracking-a-cooler-push-of-air-for-the-weekend/

Oct 10

Weekly #AGwx And #Harvest21 Outlook…

Updated 10.10.21 @ 10:14a

The predominant pattern in the week ahead will feature an eastern ridge and western trough.
Temperatures will run well above normal across the East while an early taste of winter will reside across the West.
Rainfall will run well above normal this week from the southern Plains into the western Great Lakes along with the northern Plains.
We think most central Indiana rain gauges accumulate between 0.75” and 1.25” in the 7-day period.
We continue to track the potential of strong to severe storms Monday afternoon and evening.

Forecast Period: 10.10.21 through 10.17.21

While the bulk of the forecast period will run well above normal, this will be a much more active 7-day period than we’ve seen of late. The first storm system will approach Monday afternoon. After a warm, breezy, and mostly dry day, a line of storms will move through from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Strong damaging straight line winds appear to be the greatest threat but there will also be the potential of an isolated tornado. We bracket the hours from 2p to 10p for this line of storms to impact the state. Another storm system will move through the area late in the work week with widespread rain and a shot of much cooler, fall-like air as we head into next weekend. Dry conditions should return just in time for the weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/10/weekly-agwx-and-harvest21-outlook-6/

Oct 09

Monitoring Monday’s Storm Threat…

Updated 10.09.21 @ 9:30a

After a mostly dry, sunny, and unseasonably warm weekend, our next storm system will approach as we kick off the work week. Southerly winds will usher in an unseasonably moist airmass to combine with August-like temperatures (highs once again are expected to shoot into the lower and middle 80s).

Southerly winds will transport unseasonably muggy air north Monday. South winds will gust 30-35 MPH at times.
Dew points will climb into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the approaching cold front Monday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlines the western Ohio Valley, including most of Indiana, into the central Great Lakes region for a Slight Risk of severe weather Monday.

A surface wave is expected to develop along the pressing cold front Sunday evening and track northeast into the Great Lakes. After a warm, dry, and breezy start to Monday, a line of thunderstorms should develop late Monday morning or early afternoon across western IL. This line will then track east and move into Indiana during the late afternoon and evening hours.

Given some of the ingredients in place, the primary concern with this line of storms will be the potential of damaging straight line winds. There also is the potential of a couple rotating storms within this overall line of storms that could pose an isolated tornado threat.

After the stormy time of things Monday PM (rainfall amounts should check-in between 0.50″ and 1″ for most), conditions will improve as we move through the day Tuesday. Another (weaker) system will push into the area midweek, but as of now this doesn’t look like a significant event.

A stronger cold front will arrive to close the week with more widespread rain. After an unseasonably warm stretch, cooler air should finally filter into the region next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/09/monitoring-mondays-storm-threat/

Oct 08

VIDEO: Warming Up This Weekend; Another Busy Week Ahead…

Updated 10.08.21 @ 11:35a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/08/video-warming-up-this-weekend-another-busy-week-ahead/

Oct 07

VIDEO: Conditions Improve Through The Weekend; Tracking 2 Storm Systems Next Week…

Updated 10.07.21 @ 11:15a

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/10/07/video-conditions-improve-through-the-weekend-tracking-2-storm-systems-next-week/

IndyWx.com