Updated 09.10.22 @ 7:45a
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Sep 10
Updated 09.10.22 @ 7:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/10/video-taste-of-fall-to-open-up-the-new-work-week-summer-warmth-returns-next-weekend/
Sep 07
Updated 09.07.22 @ 7:52a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/07/video-coolest-air-of-the-young-fall-season-on-deck-early-next-week-significant-warm-up-looms-by-mid-month/
Sep 05
Updated 09.05.22 @ 8:45a
I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing Labor Day. Below are some headlines that have our attention as we progress through the week ahead and look forward to the middle of September.
1.) Brighter Days Ahead: Our region has been under the influence of an area of low pressure and associated upper level trough for the past few days. Unfortunately, gloomy skies will prevail today along with scattered slow moving downpours. While everyone won’t get wet, those that do find themselves under one of these convective downpours could easily pick up a quick 1″+ of rain in under an hour. Thankfully, a drier airmass will begin to build in Tuesday before really taking hold in earnest Wednesday through Friday. This will deliver an increasingly sunny sky and lower humidity levels.
2.) Potent Weekend Cold Front: When the calendar turns to September, we always have to start paying a little more attention to approaching cold fronts. That, of course, becomes even more the case the deeper into the fall season we go. The fall severe weather season occasionally rivals that of the spring around these parts and temperature changes become more significant as the days go by. This weekend will feature the 1st true autumn-like frontal passage of the young meteorological fall season.
Ahead of the boundary, southerly winds will pull an increasingly moist and unstable airmass northward (you’ll really notice a difference in the airmass Friday morning compared to that of Saturday morning). It also wouldn’t surprise me if the Storm Prediction Center is forced to hoist a risk of severe weather across the Ohio Valley Saturday, including here in Indiana. The front is expected to sweep through the state Sunday morning and then we’ll deal with a brief, but significant, “pop” of much cooler, drier air (coolest so far of the season) as we open up next week.
3.) Mid-September Warm Up…Despite the aforementioned “pop” of cooler air to open up next week, all indications continue to point towards another significant warmup with a building ridge over our part of the country as we head into the middle of September. In fact, don’t be shocked if we’re still not quite done with the 90s for the year…
As it sits right now, it appears as if the heat will really start to build towards the end of next week and into the weekend of the 17th. Based on longer range pattern drivers, the balance of the 2nd half of September should run above normal.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/05/happy-labor-day-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year-where-cold-fronts-become-a-bit-more-potent-mid-september-pattern-evolution/
Sep 04
Updated 09.04.22 @ 11:56a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/04/video-unsettled-at-times-over-the-next-couple-of-days-stronger-cold-front-passes-through-next-weekend/
Sep 01
Updated 09.01.22 @ 7:48a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/01/video-looking-into-the-pattern-into-mid-september/
Aug 31
Updated 08.31.22 @ 7:33a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/31/video-wrapping-up-august-on-a-gorgeous-note-heat-builds-and-storm-chances-return-over-the-holiday-weekend/
Aug 28
Updated 08.28.22 @ 8:18a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/28/video-cold-front-passes-tuesday-unsettled-open-to-the-work-week-gives-way-to-pleasant-weather-leading-up-to-labor-day/
Aug 27
Updated 08.27.22 @ 6:15p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/27/video-cooler-regime-to-open-september-doesnt-last-long-warmer-than-normal-start-to-meteorological-fall-expected/
Aug 27
Updated 08.27.22 @ 7:53a
First and foremost, happy college football season! Sure, this weekend’s games aren’t terribly exciting, but LIVE college football is back and sets the stage for an incredible slate this upcoming weekend! I’m looking forward to being on the Plains of southern Alabama next weekend to celebrate the return of another special Auburn football season!
I will still be posting a Client Video later today, but wanted to dedicate this post to the two test cases in the week ahead:
I. Strength and magnitude of the cooler air to open September
II. Pre Labor Day tropical excitement in the Gulf of Mexico
Let’s start with the cooler potential. The European has trended closer to the GFS solution in recent runs, opening September on a cooler than normal note. The GFS is still more aggressive with the cool down to open up meteorological fall, but the European is trending more and more towards this solution. What’s at stake? A couple of days to open the month with lows into the lower 50s (mid to upper 50s inside the circle, itself) and highs in the upper 70s with that classic autumn sky. Side note: a significantly warmer (hotter) pattern looms thereafter.
Now let’s talk about the tropics. Not much has changed here with the vast differences in handling the lead feature (threat in the Gulf of Mexico as Labor Day weekend nears). This morning, the GFS continues to beat the drum on this potential while the European isn’t excited in the least. We note the European ensemble product isn’t even hinting at the threat of a depression to develop during this period. It’ll be mighty interesting to see how this plays out in the coming days. We should gain more clarity early in the work week. I will say, should something form, it appears to be an eventual southern of western Gulf threat from this distance.
Video discussion looking over 12z data and jumping ahead to the next big surge of warmth will be online later today.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/27/checking-in-on-those-test-cases/
Aug 26
Updated 08.26.22 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/26/video-gfs-european-test-case-to-open-up-september/