Category: Autumn

VIDEO: Taste Of Fall To Open Up The New Work Week; Summer Warmth Returns Next Weekend…

Updated 09.10.22 @ 7:45a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/10/video-taste-of-fall-to-open-up-the-new-work-week-summer-warmth-returns-next-weekend/

VIDEO: Coolest Air Of The Young Fall Season On Deck Early Next Week; Significant Warm-Up Looms By Mid Month…

Updated 09.07.22 @ 7:52a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/07/video-coolest-air-of-the-young-fall-season-on-deck-early-next-week-significant-warm-up-looms-by-mid-month/

Happy Labor Day: Getting To Be That Time Of Year Where Cold Fronts Become A Bit More Potent; Mid-September Pattern Evolution…

Updated 09.05.22 @ 8:45a

I hope this finds you enjoying a relaxing Labor Day. Below are some headlines that have our attention as we progress through the week ahead and look forward to the middle of September.

1.) Brighter Days Ahead: Our region has been under the influence of an area of low pressure and associated upper level trough for the past few days. Unfortunately, gloomy skies will prevail today along with scattered slow moving downpours. While everyone won’t get wet, those that do find themselves under one of these convective downpours could easily pick up a quick 1″+ of rain in under an hour. Thankfully, a drier airmass will begin to build in Tuesday before really taking hold in earnest Wednesday through Friday. This will deliver an increasingly sunny sky and lower humidity levels.

A drier airmass will arrive by midweek. This will allow overnight lows to fall into the 50s for most areas Thursday and Friday mornings.

2.) Potent Weekend Cold Front: When the calendar turns to September, we always have to start paying a little more attention to approaching cold fronts. That, of course, becomes even more the case the deeper into the fall season we go. The fall severe weather season occasionally rivals that of the spring around these parts and temperature changes become more significant as the days go by. This weekend will feature the 1st true autumn-like frontal passage of the young meteorological fall season.

Ahead of the boundary, southerly winds will pull an increasingly moist and unstable airmass northward (you’ll really notice a difference in the airmass Friday morning compared to that of Saturday morning). It also wouldn’t surprise me if the Storm Prediction Center is forced to hoist a risk of severe weather across the Ohio Valley Saturday, including here in Indiana. The front is expected to sweep through the state Sunday morning and then we’ll deal with a brief, but significant, “pop” of much cooler, drier air (coolest so far of the season) as we open up next week.

Moisture will be pulled back northward ahead of an approaching front Saturday.
Note the drastic change in dew points Sunday morning as the fall front progresses east.
Some gusty to severe storms are possible ahead of the front Saturday.

3.) Mid-September Warm Up…Despite the aforementioned “pop” of cooler air to open up next week, all indications continue to point towards another significant warmup with a building ridge over our part of the country as we head into the middle of September. In fact, don’t be shocked if we’re still not quite done with the 90s for the year…

As it sits right now, it appears as if the heat will really start to build towards the end of next week and into the weekend of the 17th. Based on longer range pattern drivers, the balance of the 2nd half of September should run above normal.

An upper ridge will expand over our part of the country through the middle and latter part of September.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/05/happy-labor-day-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year-where-cold-fronts-become-a-bit-more-potent-mid-september-pattern-evolution/

VIDEO: Unsettled At Times Over The Next Couple Of Days; Stronger Cold Front Passes Through Next Weekend…

Updated 09.04.22 @ 11:56a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/09/04/video-unsettled-at-times-over-the-next-couple-of-days-stronger-cold-front-passes-through-next-weekend/

VIDEO: Looking At The Pattern Into Mid-September…

Updated 09.01.22 @ 7:48a

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VIDEO: Wrapping Up August On A Gorgeous Note; Heat Builds And Storm Chances Return Over The Holiday Weekend…

Updated 08.31.22 @ 7:33a

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VIDEO: Cold Front Passes Tuesday; Unsettled Open To The Work Week Gives Way To Pleasant Weather Leading Up To Labor Day…

Updated 08.28.22 @ 8:18a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/28/video-cold-front-passes-tuesday-unsettled-open-to-the-work-week-gives-way-to-pleasant-weather-leading-up-to-labor-day/

VIDEO: Cooler Regime To Open September Doesn’t Last Long; Warmer Than Normal Start To Meteorological Fall Expected…

Updated 08.27.22 @ 6:15p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/27/video-cooler-regime-to-open-september-doesnt-last-long-warmer-than-normal-start-to-meteorological-fall-expected/

Checking In On Those Test Cases…

Updated 08.27.22 @ 7:53a

First and foremost, happy college football season! Sure, this weekend’s games aren’t terribly exciting, but LIVE college football is back and sets the stage for an incredible slate this upcoming weekend! I’m looking forward to being on the Plains of southern Alabama next weekend to celebrate the return of another special Auburn football season!

I will still be posting a Client Video later today, but wanted to dedicate this post to the two test cases in the week ahead:

I. Strength and magnitude of the cooler air to open September

II. Pre Labor Day tropical excitement in the Gulf of Mexico

Let’s start with the cooler potential. The European has trended closer to the GFS solution in recent runs, opening September on a cooler than normal note. The GFS is still more aggressive with the cool down to open up meteorological fall, but the European is trending more and more towards this solution. What’s at stake? A couple of days to open the month with lows into the lower 50s (mid to upper 50s inside the circle, itself) and highs in the upper 70s with that classic autumn sky. Side note: a significantly warmer (hotter) pattern looms thereafter.

Now let’s talk about the tropics. Not much has changed here with the vast differences in handling the lead feature (threat in the Gulf of Mexico as Labor Day weekend nears). This morning, the GFS continues to beat the drum on this potential while the European isn’t excited in the least. We note the European ensemble product isn’t even hinting at the threat of a depression to develop during this period. It’ll be mighty interesting to see how this plays out in the coming days. We should gain more clarity early in the work week. I will say, should something form, it appears to be an eventual southern of western Gulf threat from this distance.

GFS remains bullish on a tropical threat in the Gulf Labor Day weekend.
Meanwhile, the European is having none of it…

Video discussion looking over 12z data and jumping ahead to the next big surge of warmth will be online later today.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/27/checking-in-on-those-test-cases/

VIDEO: GFS/ European Test Case To Open Up September…

Updated 08.26.22 @ 7:50a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/26/video-gfs-european-test-case-to-open-up-september/

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