Jul 27
Good morning and happy race day Indy! This morning’s visible satellite shows our cold front off to the northwest still. The pre-dawn storms have exited to the southeast, but we…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/sunday-morning-weather-rambles/
Jul 21
The overall weather pattern over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days will be one that we’ve grown quite accustomed to. In the midst of a warmer and more humid couple days (back to seasonal and slightly above normal levels), confidence continues to grow on a pattern that will feature well below normal temperatures as we put a wrap on July.
Here are a couple of maps we created this evening depicting the upper air pattern week 1 and week 2. We’re eyeing a one-two punch of cool, fall-ish, air that will have things feeling “out of season” yet again.
A cold front will pass through our neck of the woods Wednesday with scattered showers and thunderstorms. We’re not looking at heavy rain totals, but potential is there for a quick 0.25″-0.75″ as the front drops through. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible, especially south and east of the city Wednesday afternoon as this front passes.
Then we shift our eyes to an unsettled weekend. While it won’t rain the entire time, showers and thunderstorms will be in our forecast over the weekend in front of a reinforcing (stronger) blast of cool air that will blow in early next week. Again, rain potential isn’t terribly impressive, but we’ll take what we can get (things are turning mighty dry out there as we’re down more than 2″ MTD). The way we see things now would suggest 0.50″-1″ type rains over the weekend.
Once to next week “cool” is the word. Needless to say, we’re going to wrap up July with a feel that’s very much like autumn. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise us if we set a couple records for the cool air next week. More on that and the rain chances ahead a bit later. Have a fantastic evening!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/summer-warmth-quickly-fades-to-a-much-cooler-pattern-again/
Jul 01
It’s hard to believe we’re approaching the July 4th holiday already. Where is the summer going?! I remember back in my football days, once past the 4th, summer was over for me as two-a-days began the following week. Come late July, we would beg for the fall semester of school to begin! 🙂
If you’re like me, the upcoming weather pattern in the days ahead will certainly have you craving fall! Lows in outlying areas will dip into the upper 40s come Friday morning (not bad for the 4th of July, huh)? Anyway, here are some things that have the attention of IndyWx.com in the days (and weeks) ahead…
1.) Trending Cooler…Note the cooler air in the upper Mid West this evening, including many already in the 50s and 60s. That cooler air will head south with time Wednesday into Thursday. We’ll note the cooler temperatures tomorrow as highs only reach the middle to upper 70s. The cooler than normal temperatures will really settle into the region tomorrow night and Thursday, continuing for the big 4th of July holiday. Some outlying communities may fall into the upper 40s Friday morning!
2.) Arthur…What’s now Tropical Storm Arthur will likely continue to strengthen in the days ahead and potentially come too close for comfort to the NC Outer Banks around the upcoming holiday. By the time Arthur is along (or just offshore) the NC coastline, he may be packing hurricane force winds. Certainly, plenty of rough seas are to be had up and down the mid Atlantic coast into the Northeast coastal waters for the upcoming long holiday weekend.
3.) Continued Active Pattern…Though we’ll enjoy some much needed dry weather as we cool things down, an active time of things will return early next week, including multiple storm chances.
Additionally, we don’t forecast any sort of significant heat for the foreseeable future. In fact, we may “enjoy” another round of unseasonably cool air by the middle to latter parts of next week, as projected by the ESRL/PSD upper air pattern above.
4.) Thoughts Turning To Fall & Winter…Part of what we provide here are thoughts on the seasonal and long range, including a variety of model data that may argue for, and against, our seasonal ideas (have to keep an open mind and be sure not to “model hug” any sort of data set). The latest JAMSTEC ideas have to make those eastern winter lovers smile…
As we transition from fall to winter, the model suggests a weak, to borderline moderate, El Nino progresses into a Modoki ENSO event (read more HERE about the differences between an El Nino event and an El Nino Modoki event). Combine this with the warmer than normal north-central and northeastern PAC waters and the players are, at least, on the field for a colder than average east- particularly southeast.
Pure speculation at this point, and it should be pointed out that this model struggled on the cold winter last year at this time. Instead of the cold winter we experienced, it’s 2013 June forecast for December-February 2013-2014 was a warm one. We’ll keep a close eye on the trends through late summer into fall.
An important note- as opposed to looking into the flip-flopping forecast temperature regime at this juncture, focus more on the projected oceanic patterns. Time will tell, but even though we’re only into early July, know that we continue to formulate some early thoughts and ideas on the upcoming fall and winter…
Have a relaxing night and God Bless!
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Nov 21
Today’s model data continues the theme of a southern and eastern storm for the days surrounding Thanksgiving. We’ll continue to monitor for any potential shift northwest, but as of now, the trend remains for a “suppressed” storm track. Here’s a look at the individual GFS ensemble members, off today’s 12z run. Taken at face value, 3 out of 10 members show some light snow in the air.
For now, the big story still appears to be the unseasonably cold air around for Thanksgiving. The ECMWF, Canadian, and American models (GFS and NAM) continue to hammer home the idea of a frigid Thanksgiving ahead (relative to the time of year, of course). I’m not convinced we won’t have to deal with some light snow next week at some point, but for now, the bigger story still appears to be impressive early season cold, and this cold pattern isn’t going away anytime soon.
The latest European forecast data illustrates this well. Note each and every day is well below normal, aside from tomorrow (cold air pushes in tomorrow PM). This is a snap shot of the average temperature (in degrees C) over the upcoming 10 day period. The blues, greens, and purples showcase the cold, relative to average.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-closer-look-at-thanksgiving-week/
Nov 21
* A video update was posted late last night and talks about the rain, bitterly cold weekend ahead, and looks at Thanksgiving. Scroll below for that update.
Today will feature scattered light to moderate rain, but as noted last night, that rain will grow more widespread tonight. The latest HRRR simulated radar shows that well.
High temperatures today are forecast to reach the middle 50s, per the latest HRRR.
We’re still tracking major league early season arctic air due in here this weekend. Take a look at just how far below normal these temperatures are come Sunday (shown in degrees celsius). Wow! Our forecast high of 24 will be the coldest November day in 13 years and a whopping 25 degrees below normal! Thanks, as always, to Weatherbell Analytics model suite for this data.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/a-closer-look-at-thursday/