Category: Autumn

Aug 28

About As Quiet As It Gets; Another Round Of Major League Heat On Deck As We Move Into Early September…

Updated 08.28.23 @ 12:25p

A secondary cold front will drop southeast across the state Tuesday. While we’re not anticipating any sort of widespread significant rain and storms with this frontal passage, it will be the best opportunity for rain over the next 10-14 days, overall. Best chances of precipitation will come after 5p from a weakening line of showers and storms to our northwest.

Best chances of measurable rain will be to the northwest of immediate central Indiana.

Reinforcing dry, cool air will filter into the region as we close the work week and get set to head into the Labor Day weekend. Here’s a bit of advice: please be sure to make time to get outside and enjoy this pleasant airmass as major changes await over the weekend and into next week. Until then, our late week stretch will feature overnight lows dipping into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

The upper ridge will begin to build back northeast over the holiday weekend and with it will come another round of unseasonably hot, humid conditions. While it might not be quite as miserable as what we dealt with last week, chances are that we’ll have to contend with several days of 100°+ heat indices and “jungle-like” humidity with an extended period of rain-free days deep into the Week 2 timeframe. Buckle up.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/28/about-as-quiet-as-it-gets-another-round-of-major-league-heat-on-deck-as-we-move-into-early-september/

Aug 27

Endless Summer As We Navigate The Initial Month Of Meteorological Fall…

Updated 08.27.23 @ 6:51a

We’re only a few days away from meteorological fall. Despite what the calendar says, Mother Nature will provide “bonus” heat and plenty of dry times as we rumble through the next few weeks.

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) looks to “wake up” and amplify into the notorious warm phases for September.

The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is going to crash negative and fits right into the warm pattern driver theme.

Medium and long range modeling shows the upper ridge building and expanding northeast with time over the next couple weeks. Unseasonably hot weather will accompany this pattern evolution.

Widespread drier than normal conditions should also prevail through the upcoming few weeks.

Even as we progress into the final few days of the month, extended long range guidance maintains the warm to hot theme.

It’s really not until we get to October that the pattern should begin to change in more significant fashion and make up for lost time with respect to cool, crisp air…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/27/endless-summer-as-we-navigate-the-initial-month-of-meteorological-fall/

Aug 26

VIDEO: BIG Changes In The Week Ahead…

Updated 08.26.23 @ 6a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/26/video-big-changes-in-the-week-ahead/

Aug 25

Friday Morning Rambles: Taste Of Fall Next Week…

Updated 08.25.23 @ 5:02a

I. It’s about as oppressive as it gets around these parts out the door early this morning. Temperatures will only fall a couple more degrees between now and sunrise before another dangerously hot day ahead. Check out these temperature and heat indices at 4:45a:

II. We’re tracking (2) frontal boundaries that will put an end to this heat and humidity in the coming days. The first front slips through here Saturday and will break the heat wave with a secondary, more robust, push of dry, cool air early next week. While a shower or storm is possible with both FROPAs, widespread rain isn’t expected with either.

III. A taste of fall is on deck as we move through the middle of next week and get set to kick off the Labor Day weekend. How does overnight lows into the 40s sound with highs in the upper 70s? This breath of fresh air will hold into the early part of the Labor Day weekend along with anticipated dry conditions.

IV. We’re not expecting the cool, refreshing air to last as “endless summer” returns shortly after the open to September. In fact, we continue to believe a warmer than normal and drier than average September awaits as we push through the initial month of meteorological fall. The latest European Weeklies, updated last night, for September say the same:

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/25/friday-morning-rambles-taste-of-fall-next-week/

Aug 18

Long Range Outlook Flips The Page Into Meteorological Fall…

Updated 08.18.23 @ 4:35a

Despite the blazing heat that awaits in the week ahead, another push of unseasonably cool and refreshing air that we’ll enjoy to open the weekend is a sign that autumn isn’t that far away.

As the El Niño continues to strengthen heading into fall, we’re bullish here at IndyWx.com that an unseasonably warm start to autumn is on tap. While not nearly as hot as what the week ahead will entail, we think we’ll remain close enough to the ‘mean’ upper ridge position to result in at least slightly to moderately above normal temperatures for September as a whole (say in the + 1.5° to + 3° range).

The latest European extended product and JMA Weeklies back this idea up, including a drier than normal look. While we’ll have to be on guard for the potential of ridge rider storm clusters as the ridge retrogrades west at times, the overall pattern through at least mid-September sure appears drier than normal as a whole.

While not quite as toasty, the GFS extended product is also painting a dry regime into mid-September.

From a temperature perspective into mid September, we prefer a blend of what the JMA/ Euro and GFS are suggesting. Again, slightly warmer than normal overall o/ the upcoming 3-4 week period.

As we evolve deeper into September and closer to early October, we believe the threat of an early season cold blast, including frost threat will show up a few weeks earlier than normal this season. This likely won’t be a full scale, permanent shift to cold, but rather a chilly “jolt.” Given the evolving Niño, we’ll have to likely wait until later into October before we have something more meaningful and sustained from a cold weather standpoint. . .

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/18/long-range-outlook-flips-the-page-into-meteorological-fall/

Aug 16

The Theme Of The Summer Rolls Along…

Updated 08.16.23 @ 7:26a

Most Hoosiers woke up to a hint of autumn this morning. We’re getting to that point on the calendar where we typically hear that most aren’t ready for the cooler days of autumn that are literally on the doorstep. If you find yourself in that club, take heart in knowing the hottest air of the season awaits next week as an upper level ridge expands overhead for a period of time.

This should feature multiple days next week with high temperatures into the low-mid 90s, however, this will at least be a “drier” heat compared to most other spells this summer. Most, if not all, of next week will be free of any rain along with plentiful sunshine. Aside from the big time heat, a quiet week is in store.

In looking at the long range charts, we see something similar with the ‘mean’ ridge position as it retrogrades west towards the Day 10-15 period. This should pull the more significant heat west and open us up for wetter times as we push into early September.

Perhaps the threat of some late summer/ early autumn ridge riding storm complexes are in our future? Regardless, while the upcoming week will feature significant heat, like so many other patterns this summer, there continues to be a light at the end of the hot tunnel before the “hot” pattern begins.

  • Another note that will require our attention over the course of the upcoming couple weeks? The tropics. After a very quiet time of things, it sure appears as if activity will be on the uptick just in time for us to approach the peak of the season.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/16/the-theme-of-the-summer-rolls-along/

Aug 05

Multiple Rounds Of Strong-Severe Storms This Weekend; Autumn Rambles…

Updated 08.05.23 @ 10:20a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/08/05/multiple-rounds-of-strong-severe-storms-this-weekend-autumn-rambles/

Jul 04

Brief Break In The Pattern Gives Us Time To Look Ahead To The Remainder Of Met. Summer; Open To Autumn…

Updated 07.04.23 @ 6:14a

There’s something about the 4th of July that signals a shift within. It’s been this way for me since back in the high school days. Back then, the following week meant 2-a-days were beginning as a new football season was only a few weeks away. Fast forward to today, and I understand some of the big box retailers are preparing to display their fall and Halloween decor over the next couple weeks. SEC Media Days, the unofficial “official” start of the college football season gets rolling in Nashville on July 17th. Heck, before you know it, we’ll be producing our annual winter outlook.

Okay, back to present.

As the Nino continues to mature, we believe the rest of meteorological summer (through end of month August) continues to keep any significant or long lasting heat away from our neck of the woods. In addition, the dry stretch that typically develops at some point each and every summer is also behind us. Simply put, the next 6-7 weeks appear to run near normal from a temperature standpoint and slightly above to above normal from a precipitation perspective. Overall, I prefer to lean on the latest JMA monthly product.

July

Temperatures

Precipitation

August

Temperatures

Precipitation

As we look ahead to autumn, the early call is for a warmer than normal open to fall as a whole. Certainly fits the bill with recent autumn trends…

We note both the JMA and latest European Seasonal product going towards this mild look. More on the entire fall seasonal outlook over the next few weeks.

From our family to yours, we’re wishing you a blessed Independence Day! A fresh batch of storms arrive later Wednesday and our short-term update later tonight will handle the latest look there.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/07/04/brief-break-in-the-pattern-gives-us-time-to-look-ahead-to-the-remainder-of-met-summer-open-to-autumn/

Nov 07

VIDEO: Nicole Makes Landfall Along The Eastern FL Peninsula Midweek; MUCH Colder Pattern Emerges Over The Weekend…

Updated 11.07.22 @ 7:03a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/07/video-nicole-makes-landfall-along-the-eastern-fl-peninsula-midweek-much-colder-pattern-emerges-over-the-weekend/

Nov 06

The Transition To Winter…

Updated 11.06.22 @ 10:47a

“Wintry” is certainly not a word that comes to mind when describing the first week of November ‘22. Indianapolis is running a whopping 11.4° above normal month to date.

The upcoming several days will feature additional well above normal warmth, including highs in the mid 60s to around 70°. The reasons behind the warmth have been well advertised between the MJO and teleconnections. This is all part and parcel to the SST configuration, including the 3rd consecutive La Niña fall.

But things are changing now and arriving right on schedule. It’s wild, really, when you think of the ability to find answers to the future (upcoming pattern evolution) by looking back at the past.

We note the teleconnections are now beginning to align in a manner that will drive colder than normal conditions east. The MJO also has a look that will try and circle back into Phase 6 mid to late month. To add to the complexity of the pattern transition, a late season hurricane will likely hit the Florida peninsula mid to late week before recurving up the eastern seaboard.

A cold front will blow through the state Friday and while it’ll likely be moisture starved, unlike this past front, there will be a sharp temperature drop behind the frontal passage over the weekend.

How about a week from today highs are only in the mid-upper 30s and lows may dip into the upper 10s and lower 20s. Indications are that the overall colder than normal regime will have staying power, too. While wholesale pattern transitions can be finicky at the onset, there’s a belief on this front that the overall regime will feature more sustainable cold and eventually opportunities for wintry precipitation as we close November and open up December.

There’s no change to the ideas here of the bulk of the holiday season this year (Thanksgiving to New Years) providing above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures. At the very least, there should be a lot of “fun and games” ahead over the upcoming weeks.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/06/the-transition-to-winter/

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