For those that didn’t have a chance to catch Sunday’s video update, we wanted to take the time this evening to review our September Outlook.
Specific to Indiana, we’re expecting an overall warmer than normal and drier than average 1st month of meteorological fall:
The orange hues represent areas of 1-2 (F) above normal while the blue paints a story of 1-2 (F) below normal when all is said and done 9/30.
That’s not without an early cool snap to start the month. Typically, we’d expect lows around 60 and highs in the lower 80s through the first 1/3 of the month, but that won’t be the case this year. Instead, look for a rather lengthy period of lows in the lower-middle 50s (even a few nights in the upper 40s) and highs in the lower-middle 70s. This is all thanks to the negative EPO that’s currently in place.
Notice though how the EPO trends positive towards mid-month. This would suggest warmer times are on the horizon after the unseasonably cool open to September. Sure enough, latest ensemble data is in agreement with this look.
With the period of moderation, we’re likely also going to head back into a wetter pattern- at least compared to how we open the month of September.
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A frontal boundary will continue to settle south this morning and we’ll notice a much less humid feel tonight into Saturday morning as a northeast wind takes hold.
Dew points will fall into the 50s tonight into Saturday morning across the northern half of the state.
Widely scattered light showers will scoot across the state late tonight into Saturday morning.
We’re still not expecting heavy or widespread organized rain this Labor Day weekend- just widely scattered “nuisance” level showers at times. There will be many more dry hours than wet through the holiday weekend.
Most area rain gauges can expect to pick up between 0.25″ and 0.50″ by Monday afternoon.
The big story this weekend will be Hurricane Dorian. We anticipate Dorian to strengthen into a major hurricane later today. The latest official National Hurricane Center forecast brings Dorian into the southeast Florida peninsula as a major hurricane late Labor Day night or Tuesday. While confidence continues to increase on an eventual landfall along the Florida peninsula (before a hard turn right that would take Dorian either north across the peninsula or perhaps wobble back off shore), timing is much more uncertain as the majority of data has slowed the forward progress of Dorian this weekend. If you have interests across the state or loved ones in the path of the storm, it’ll be important to stay tuned for future updates.
Back here on the home front, quiet weather is expected through early week. The first of 2 cold fronts will pass Tuesday night or early Wednesday (little in the way of fanfare with that frontal passage).
The second front will be a bigger deal late next week. Though still rather moisture starved, it’s the drop in temperatures expected behind the frontal passage that will be impressive. We’ll notice an October-level chill next weekend as this front sweeps off to the southeast. We note the latest European data has highs only in the 60s next weekend with lows in the 40s.
Meanwhile, it’s very possible we’ll still be dealing with Dorian this time next week along the southeast US costal region…
Much more through the weekend, including updates on Dorian, the season’s 1st strong fall frontal passage, and our September Outlook.
