Category: Autumn

Oct 17

Afternoon Thoughts…

1.) Model data continues to point towards some impressively cold air for so early in the season as we move through October’s 2nd half.  2.) Latest raw ECMWF numbers suggest highs next week remain in the 40s for (4) consecutive days- beginning Tuesday and continuing through Friday.  This is extremely impressive for so early in the season. 3.) Northern hemisphere snow and ice cover is running well ahead of this time last year.  There have been studies that suggest this helps promote blocking in the winter months ahead.  (Latest image is posted below).  Time will tell…. 4.) We’re not looking at particularly heavy precipitation amounts over the next week, or so, but there will be a few systems that will produce rain and/ or snow showers (yes, snow) between now and this time next week. Model precipitation amounts range from one tenth to one half inch over the next 7-10 days.  5.) There are some hints we may be looking at another surge of even colder air just in time (or around) Halloween.  You may want to invest in a warm costume this year! 🙂

icesnow

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/17/afternoon-thoughts/

Oct 15

Wednesday Forecast: Getting To Be That Time Of Year!

Updated 10.15.13 @ 4:42p

Zionsville, IN Rain showers will continue pushing east of the region tonight and we should be rain-free Wednesday. We discuss what’s sure to be a busy, chilly forecast below!

Status-weather-clouds-iconWednesday: Partly cloudy; 50/ 61

Tuesday’s rain will be all, but a memory Wednesday with sunshine returning to your forecast. A north breeze will be in play, helping usher in cooler temperatures.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconThursday: Scattered showers; 0.10; 44/ 58

Some weak upper level energy will move across the state on Thursday and this could help spark a scattered shower.  We’re not looking at all day rains or significant rainfall by any means.  Besides the rain, the other big weather story Thursday will be the chilly air.  We’ll be far below the middle 60s, which is considered the normal high for this time of year.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 42/ 63

We’ll wrap up the work week with very pleasant autumn weather.  A secondary cold front and resurgent chilly air will be set to invade for the weekend, but we think the frontal passage holds off until Friday night. As of now, we forecast the front to come through dry.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy; 40/ 54

Cool Canadian air will flow into the Hoosier state Saturday amidst chilly northerly breezes.  Winds may gust upwards of 20 MPH or so during the daytime Saturday.  You’ll certainly need that jacket or sweater as you head out to the fall festivals or the pumpkin patch!

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 38/ 57

Weather conditions will be very similar to that of Saturday on Sunday.  Dry skies and chilly breezes will dominate our landscape.  Temperatures will remain below average.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconMonday: PM shower chance; 0.10; 39/ 64

Our winds will back around briefly to the southwest and allow just enough moisture northward to potentially lead to a broken band of showers to move through the region Monday evening/ early Tuesday ahead of our next cold front. Most of your daytime Monday will remain dry and rain-free.  This front is packing a punch in the temperature department and will likely produce the coldest air so far this fall season by the middle of next week, including the chance of the first official freeze for IND.

imagesTuesday: Mostly cloudy; 41/ 49

As of now, next Tuesday is shaping up to be a rather cloudy, raw day.  Strong cold air advection will be ongoing.  Gusty north winds will help usher in the coldest air so far this fall season.  In fact, highs likely will remain below 50 degrees next Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies and chilly north winds.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/15/wednesday-forecast-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year/

Oct 15

Change On The Horizon…

So far, October 2013 is running well above normal in the temperature department: As shown above, the lower lakes and Ohio valley region has been the target for the biggest…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/15/change-on-the-horizon/

Oct 10

Friday Forecast: Busier Times Ahead In The Good Ole Forecast Office!

Updated 10.11.13 @ 6:45a

Zionsville, IN I, like many of you, make sure to enjoy the last of the warm, sunny weather this time of year.  As veteran Hoosiers know, the months ahead present a cloudy, bitterly cold, and windy time of things.  Thankfully, we have another gorgeous day lined up to close the work week.  We discuss this and busier times ahead below!

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 48/ 76

It’s only fitting that we close out the work week with the same type of weather we’ve enjoyed all week long- a cool start followed by beautiful weather conditions through the afternoon.  Get outside and spend some time soaking up the sunshine!

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSaturday: Mostly cloudy; scattered evening/ nighttime shower; 0.10″ or less; 50/ 76

Most of your daytime Saturday will provide pleasant weather to get some of those last minute chores taken care of.  We’ll notice an increase in our cloud cover followed by a broken line of showers (perhaps a rumble of thunder) rolling through the state from west to east.  We’re not looking at significant rainfall with this system.  In fact, we think most communities pick up less than one tenth of an inch of rain (if that).

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 55/ 70 

While some of our extreme eastern counties may see an AM shower Sunday, most of the day will be rain-free and feature increasing sunshine.  It’ll be another pleasant day for outdoor activities.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday:  Partly cloudy; 45/ 69

High pressure and an associated northerly air flow will dominate our weather to begin the new work week. North breezes may gust upwards of 15 MPH Monday and this will help keep us cooler than the weekend. We’ll start the day quite chilly (middle 40s for most) before warming into the upper 60s.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Increasing cloudiness, PM shower; 0.10″; 54/ 73

While we have some timing issues to work out as we draw closer to the event (GFS is more progressive whereas the ECMWF is slower), we’ll go ahead and introduce shower chances to your forecast as early as Tuesday evening. Stay tuned as we fine tune things.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconWednesday: Rain; 0.50″; 49/ 64

As of now, we see a cold front moving through the region Wednesday. Ahead of the front, showers and possibly a thunderstorm will blow through the region.  Our winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday night/ Thursday, helping drive the coldest air so far this season into the Hoosier state Wednesday night and Thursday.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconThursday:  Rain; 0.50″; 44/ 57

Again, as we posted above, timing is everything with our mid to late week cold front.  Overnight model data places a heavier corridor of rain through central Indiana mid week- potentially as much as 1″-1.25″ over the two day period.

We also want to continue pointing out that with the PNA shifting back into the  positive, the stage is set for chilly air to hang around the region with more “staying power” as we move through October’s second half.  We’ve covered this in posts below and will continue to go over things as we move forward…  It’s time to certainly pull out those coats! 🙂

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/10/friday-forecast-busier-times-ahead-in-the-good-ole-forecast-office/

Oct 10

Changes Brewing?

After an unseasonably cool summer, the pattern flipped to a warmer regime during the month of September.  That same warm pattern continues presently, but are changes brewing?

We note the PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is trending positive and this could help promote more of a sustained trough and associated cooler than normal pattern to wrap up October.  Would it be enough to offset the very warm first half of October?  Too early to tell.  However, I will say that with the PNA trending positive, it does suggest we’ll be looking at more sustained chilly conditions, as opposed to the “in and out” flirtations of cool air as of late.

The GEFS suggests a trough sets up shop across the eastern part of the country for the back half of October.

IMG_0889

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/10/changes-brewing/

Oct 08

Wednesday Evening Forecast Update

 

Forecast models continue to hint at the potential of our next significant storm system slated for a mid month arrival.  Latest data, hot off the press, remains in general agreement on the way things evolve, but details on timing and any heavy rain/ severe threat will have to be fine tuned as we move forward.

f216

gfs_namer_192_500_vort_ht_s

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/08/wednesday-evening-forecast-update/

Oct 07

Tuesday Forecast: Sun-Filled Autumn Stretch Ahead!

Updated 10.07.13 @ 6:41p

Zionsville, IN After a weekend featuring plentiful rain and embedded thunderstorms, it was nice to see the return of the sunshine to kick off the new work week.  For those craving a more fall-like feel to the air, well you have your wish with low humidity, warm days, and cool nights in store this week.

Status-weather-clear-iconTuesday through Friday: Mostly sunny; Lows in the lower 40s early in the period, rising to the upper 40s by Friday morning. Highs in the upper 60s Tuesday and lower to middle 70s Wednesday through Friday.

High pressure will remain in firm control of our weather as we progress through the rest of the work week.  After a cool start to the period (some outlying areas will dip into the 30s tonight), temperatures will moderate through the remainder of the week, getting back above normal by mid week.  Mostly sunny skies will prevail this week, giving us a much needed chance to dry out after the heavy weekend rainfall.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy; 52/ 76

Our next storm system will begin to approach the region for the second half of the weekend. The way we see things now is that we should get a dry first half of the weekend in with just some increasing cloudiness during the afternoon.  It’ll be a nice Saturday with above normal temperatures and dry conditions.

Status-weather-showers-scattered-iconSunday: Showers; 0.25; 59/ 70

A cold front will pass through the state Sunday and feature scattered to numerous showers as it crosses the region.  We’re not looking at any sort of heavy rain or severe weather with this frontal passage.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 56/ 69

Similar to that of today, we should see the sunshine return to kick off the new work week, after a gloomy end to the weekend.  Temperatures don’t appear to be particularly cool behind Sunday’s frontal passage, but we’ll shave a couple of degrees off the thermometer next Monday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/07/tuesday-forecast-sun-filled-autumn-stretch-ahead/

Oct 06

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

Rain was plentiful over the region over the past 48 hours.  While widespread 2″ rainfall was common for all of central Indiana, the heaviest rainfall fell across southern and eastern Indiana.

Here are a couple of illustrations of the rainfall totals.  The first image is storm total rainfall from the past 24 hours. Note the heavy, 4″ type rains over southern and eastern Indiana. The second image is off the awesome Weatherbell model site and shows the heavy rainfall event over Indiana that unfolded on a bigger scale.  Needless to say, the short term drought concerns that we were dealing with August and September have been erased.

1379925_643932488960824_62568978_n

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

rtma_precip_48

Temperatures are running MUCH cooler over the region today and we also note a drier, more fall-like, air mass building into the region.  A couple of other items- it’s easy to see where the cold front is currently located (as of this post) as many in Ohio are still dealing with warm, humid conditions.  Additionally, the cold core upper level low remains to our west and will rotate over our region Monday.  This will lead to an unseasonably cool day with mostly cloudy skies and the potential of a scattered shower.

rtma_glus

As we move forward, despite the cooler air to welcome in the new work week, we remain in a warmer than average pattern overall.  The PNA continues to dominate the pattern and until this goes positive, don’t look for any sort of sustained cool weather across the eastern US.

gfs_pna_bias

 

 

 

 

 

 

The European operational and ensemble show the current trough and associated cool air retreating and allowing a warmer southwesterly air flow to build in this week.

Monday

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_24

 

 

Thursday

Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_96After a quiet time ahead (and much needed to dry out), our next significant storm system appears to arrive around mid month.  Both the GFS and European model are in agreement with this idea.  Does another potential significant rain maker and associated severe weather event lie ahead mid month?  Possibly.

Here’s a look at the upper air pattern out at Day 10 off the European model.  We note another significant storm system ejecting out into the Plains states, most likely after dumping another impressive early autumn snow on the central and northern Rockies.

ecm_z500_anom_noram_11

The GFS idea is something similar to that of the European, suggesting confidence is relatively high, at least from this distance.

gfs_z500_sig_noram_37

All of that said, we’re still in a “transient” pattern as the next big storm is shown crashing onshore along the west coast by both models.  We shouldn’t be surprised by a “transient” pattern this time of year. It’s October, after all- a month notorious for many swings on the thermometer.

We’ll close with a look at the European’s temperatures anomalies over the course of the next 10 days.  Note the chill of early week erased with above normal warmth for the majority of the period. Also, pay attention to the unseasonable chill coming off the Rockies and into the Plains towards the end of the period below.  This is associated with the mid month storm.

tavg_anom_ecmwf_conus_1

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/06/sunday-afternoon-rambles/

Oct 03

Friday Forecast: Feeling Like Summer In October

Updated 10.04.13 @ 7:45a Zionsville, IN Thursday started off with cloudy skies and scattered showers, but rainfall amounts were extremely light for the most part across central Indiana. Remember you…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/03/friday-forecast-feeling-like-summer-in-october/

Oct 02

Brief Shots Of Cool Weather In An Otherwise Warm Pattern

Good Wednesday afternoon! As we analyze the latest data, one thing that screams out to us is that our warmer than normal pattern is going to continue at least for…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/02/brief-shots-of-cool-weather-in-an-otherwise-warm-pattern/

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