Oct 05
Updated 10.05.24 @ 7:26a If you’re a fan of 80° warmth, soak up this weekend. We should flirt with that mark both today and again on Sunday. A dry frontal…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/10/05/video-say-goodbye-to-the-80s-until-spring-classic-fall-feel-waiting-on-the-doorstep/
Aug 30
Updated 08.30.24 @ 7:54a We’re tracking (2) cold fronts that will ultimately help to serve up some mighty refreshing air as we get into the first week of meteorological fall.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/08/30/video-trending-cooler-than-normal-as-we-roll-through-the-early-stages-of-meteorological-fall/
Nov 29
Updated 11.29.23 @ 7:33a Our airmass will undergo quite the change over the next 24 hours. The early season taste of arctic air will be replaced with a milder (but…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/11/29/video-milder-but-wetter-shift-in-the-pattern-long-range-rumblings/
Aug 27
Updated 08.27.22 @ 7:53a
First and foremost, happy college football season! Sure, this weekend’s games aren’t terribly exciting, but LIVE college football is back and sets the stage for an incredible slate this upcoming weekend! I’m looking forward to being on the Plains of southern Alabama next weekend to celebrate the return of another special Auburn football season!
I will still be posting a Client Video later today, but wanted to dedicate this post to the two test cases in the week ahead:
I. Strength and magnitude of the cooler air to open September
II. Pre Labor Day tropical excitement in the Gulf of Mexico
Let’s start with the cooler potential. The European has trended closer to the GFS solution in recent runs, opening September on a cooler than normal note. The GFS is still more aggressive with the cool down to open up meteorological fall, but the European is trending more and more towards this solution. What’s at stake? A couple of days to open the month with lows into the lower 50s (mid to upper 50s inside the circle, itself) and highs in the upper 70s with that classic autumn sky. Side note: a significantly warmer (hotter) pattern looms thereafter.
Now let’s talk about the tropics. Not much has changed here with the vast differences in handling the lead feature (threat in the Gulf of Mexico as Labor Day weekend nears). This morning, the GFS continues to beat the drum on this potential while the European isn’t excited in the least. We note the European ensemble product isn’t even hinting at the threat of a depression to develop during this period. It’ll be mighty interesting to see how this plays out in the coming days. We should gain more clarity early in the work week. I will say, should something form, it appears to be an eventual southern of western Gulf threat from this distance.
Video discussion looking over 12z data and jumping ahead to the next big surge of warmth will be online later today.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/08/27/checking-in-on-those-test-cases/
Nov 27
Updated 11.27.21 @ 5:56a
The theme of the better part of the autumn season has been a story of contradicting signals- teleconnections and MJO alike. When we look ahead to the beginning of meteorological winter (Dec. 1st), it sure appears that will continue to be the story. For a brief moment the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) tries to go negative. This is interesting in and of itself as only a couple days ago the EPO was forecast positive during this period.
Meanwhile, the PNA is forecast negative to open the month.
The “wildcard” in this entire December outcome has to do with the MJO. If (still a big if) we can get things to amplify, then a whip around the historically December cold phases (7, 8, and 1) appear in order.
If the MJO doesn’t get in the game, the pattern, at best, will be one of continued transition (colder and warmer than normal periods) and that’s what the majority of ensemble guidance currently shows. Without a favorable MJO, it’s tough to see how meaningful, more sustained arctic air can get into the mix, locally.
As far as storm systems of note, we’re in an incredibly quiet period and that looks to continue through the upcoming 5-6 days. We’ll keep eyes to our north where weak systems will zip by in the fast flow aloft, but most, if not all, of these should remain to our north and east. It’s not until early next weekend (looks like Friday or early Saturday as of now) when our next system of more significance is slated to impact the area.
War Eagle and happy Iron Bowl Saturday! 😀
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/11/27/long-range-rambles-on-iron-bowl-saturday/
Sep 18
Updated: 09.18.21 @ 1a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/18/those-special-college-football-saturdays-return-rolling-into-a-more-fall-like-weather-pattern/
Sep 14
Updated 09.14.21 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/09/14/video-tracking-a-line-of-storms-this-evening-and-potential-of-a-stronger-cold-front-early-next-week/
Sep 24
An unsettled open to the work week is upon us. Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected this morning through Wednesday morning. Tuesday will present the most widespread thunderstorms and a few of these could reach strong-to-severe levels. Locally heavy rain can be expected at times. The greatest concerns from a severe perspective center around large hail and damaging straight line winds, but a couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
Most widespread coverage of storms will arrive Tuesday.
Heaviest rain amounts will fall across eastern parts of the state where widespread 1″ to 2″ with locally higher amounts are expected by Wednesday morning. With that said, localized 1″+ amounts will also fall across northwest parts of the state as shown on the latest high resolution NAM.
The frontal boundary will sweep through the state late Tuesday and allow a cooler and drier air mass to filter into the region Wednesday. You’ll notice a true fall feel out the door Wednesday morning- low to mid 50s. Highs Wednesday afternoon will remain in the 60s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/09/24/periods-of-heavy-rain-strong-severe-storms-to-open-the-work-week/
Jun 24
As attention turns to the 4th of July holiday, there aren’t any changes to the ongoing idea of a significant heat wave gripping the region.
A strong ridge of high pressure will anchor itself over the Ohio Valley during this time frame and help power a big time period of hot and mostly dry weather. It’s the type of pattern that has legs to promote multiple days of highs in the middle to upper 90s across central Indiana. With tropical dew points in place, overnight lows won’t be allowed to fall much below the middle 70s during the height of the heat wave. Heat indices will rise into the lower 100s to near 110° at times.
Take this period of heat seriously. With many area festivals, firework shows, and events going on during the holiday week, it’ll be important to have a means of keeping cool. Simply put, this kind of heat wave doesn’t come around every year (and thank heavens for that).
With the hot dome centered over the Ohio Valley, it’ll really help to limit shower and thunderstorm chances. That’s not to say isolated coverage of cooling thunderstorms won’t occur on occasion during the afternoon and evening, but widespread rain of significance won’t be around during the period. Thankfully, the recent wet pattern and additional storm complexes coming in Tuesday into Wednesday have and will help surface moisture levels. Had we not seen the recent wet shift over the past couple weeks, you could easily tack on an additional 3° to 5°…
For those longing for the cool, crisp days of fall, hang in there. Heck, it’s only 69 days until my beloved Auburn Tigers tee it up and kick it off against the University of Washington… I am one that says “bring it on!”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/06/24/checking-in-no-changes-to-expected-significant-4th-of-july-heat-wave/
Nov 21
Highlights:
Dry For The Big Travel Day…A cold front is passing through the state as we type this forecast with a light band of moisture (light rain ending as light snow). This will serve up cold, but dry conditions for the big travel day, and continued dry conditions Thanksgiving Day. “Average” temperatures Thanksgiving feature lows around 30° and highs in the middle 40s, and we’ll be pretty close to those values. Black Friday will feature dry, but increasingly breezy conditions.
Thankfully, weather conditions will be tranquil for “Iron Bowl Saturday” (WARRRR EAGLE)!!! With the exception of an early shower, look for dry conditions along with a shifting breeze that will help push colder air in for the second half of the weekend.
Those chilly conditions won’t last long as we get into an increasingly gusty southwesterly flow and milder conditions next week ahead of the next approaching storm system…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/11/21/mostly-tranquil/