Jan 14
The overall shift in the weather pattern to one that will produce sustained winter weather threats and below normal air is underway. Before diving into the individual threats that loom…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/14/busy-period-of-winter-weather/
Jan 14
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/14/quiet-open-to-the-week-doesnt-last-busy-winter-pattern-locking-in/
Jan 13
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/13/threat-of-another-major-winter-storm-late-week/
Jan 04
Daily, we’re receiving questions around if and when winter will show up. While admittedly later than originally thought here, we’ve never been in the camp of “throwing the towel” in on winter. Our winter outlook that includes below normal cold and near average snowfall remains unchanged.
Before we get into some of our reasons why we think winter will show up (and likely make up for lost time), the upcoming week will remain much warmer than average.
We’re tracking (3) storm systems that will deal the region rain over the upcoming week:
As a whole, rainfall amounts won’t be particularly impressive for most, with 7-day totals between 0.25″ to 0.75″ for central portions of the state. Heavier amounts can be expected across southern areas.
Now, let’s look ahead to some potentially colder times. Before moving forward, it’s important that we recognize models have attempted once already to drive in a wholesale pattern change to colder (originally thought to be underway now). Perhaps it’s a case of “delayed, but not denied.” There’s a lot going on behind the scenes:
There are significant changes brewing in the arctic/ higher latitudes that have to raise an eyebrow at the very least.
Today
Mid-January
Note the higher pressures building over the upcoming 10-14 days in the arctic regions.
Not surprisingly, the models begin to tank the AO.
The PNA rises…
Something that also lends credence to a potential pattern shift is the recent SOI drop.
This would tend to suggest that an active storm track may be in place as the more bonafide cold shift is underway.
The moral of the story? Despite the milder period being extended a couple weeks longer than originally thought, there’s still a lot on the table this winter. It’s far too early to think winter’s over before it’s really even begun for most. We expect to see increasingly wintry conditions show up around the middle of January…
Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/01/04/trying-to-answer-questions-when-winter-will-show-up/
Dec 27
Highlights:
Rain Gear Needed…The pattern is transitioning from the predominantly mild stretch of the past couple weeks to one that will turn much colder as we move into January. In between? Active times, as we’re tracking two big storm systems between now and NYE.
The initial push of moisture has reached the I-65 corridor as of this forecast issuance early Thursday morning. Periods of rain will continue through a good chunk of the day and we may even throw in some thunder into the mix later this evening- especially across southern portions of the state. The other big story today? Strong and gusty southerly winds.
Rain will end later tonight with dry, blustery, and colder times returning as we close the week. Highs tomorrow will come predawn before falling through the day. Dry and seasonable times will continue as we move through the last weekend of 2018.
A new storm system promises a return of wet times as we get set to ring in the new year. Definitely plan on having the rain gear handy as you head out to those New Year’s Eve parties Monday. Heavy rain is possible at times. As the area of low pressure tracks northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through here Monday night and we’ll turn sharply colder with snow showers on New Year’s Day, itself.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/27/tracking-2-rain-events-cold-open-to-2019/
Dec 26
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/26/rain-arrives-tomorrow/
Dec 25
Tomorrow will be a rather uneventful weather day across central Indiana, but things will begin to change as we head into Thursday.
An area of low pressure will track out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes by Friday. The end result will be increasing coverage of showers Thursday afternoon and perhaps even a rumble of thunder Thursday evening.
Most of the concentrated rain should come to an end around dark Thursday. By that time we forecast a general 1/2″ to 1″ to fall in area rain gauges.
More seasonable air will blow in here behind the storm system and we’ll have to keep an eye on energy “attacking” from behind over the weekend. With colder weather in place, snow is possible next weekend.
Looking ahead, a combination of ingredients appears to be coming together to create a rather significant transition in the pattern as we head into January. Note the developing positive PNA…
This will result in more sustained below normal temperatures making a return early January to our neck of the woods…
Additionally, it also appears an active storm track will continue. While impossible to say this far in advance, prospects for above average snowfall (average is 8.6″) appear likely through the month of January.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/25/looking-at-the-holiday-week-and-ahead-to-january/
Dec 22
I. While we certainly aren’t talking about significant weather events between now and Christmas Day, there will be a couple of impulses of upper level energy that may be just strong enough to produce snow showers and flurries at times. We’re tracking (2) weak disturbances that stand a chance to get a couple of snow showers going Sunday evening and again Christmas Day. The one on Christmas, itself, will be a bit stronger and may have a shield of more organized precipitation- likely that would start as wet snow before transitioning to rain before ending.
II. A much stronger storm system will wrap up to our northwest Wednesday night and Thursday. We’ll notice an increasingly strong southerly breeze during this time period and rain will be on the increase as we progress through the day Thursday. The trade-off? Highs between 55° and 60° to close the week- though those temperatures may actually come Thursday evening before cooler air begins to slip in here during the day Friday.
As things stand now, both the GFS and European models, courtesy of Weathermodels.com, aren’t overly excited on rainfall amounts with this storm system, but I think they’ll trend wetter as time goes on. We’ll continue to forecast amounts between 0.50″ and 1″.
III. All attention is squarely focused on a significant pattern change that takes shape as we head into the new year. As mentioned in previous posts and discussions, the transition is likely to be a stormy one, but it’s far too early to talk precipitation types. A combination of ingredients appears to be aligning to create a colder than normal (and potentially significantly so) pattern at the traditionally coldest time of year (mid-Jan).
In the more immediate term, we note the latest GEFS showcases a classic “horse shoe” block that will favor a wintry regime across the east to open the new year- thanks to Tropicaltidbits.com.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/22/pre-christmas-weather-rambles/
Dec 20
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/20/deeper-look-into-the-long-range/
Dec 08
Highlights:
Brrrrrrr…It’s another frigid early December morning across central Indiana, but there really isn’t any “exciting” weather to discuss through the early part of next week. High pressure will supply quiet conditions through the daytime Wednesday. We’ll notice some mid and high level cloudiness today from a winter storm that will drop historic snow amounts across the southern Appalachians tonight into Monday. Otherwise, plentiful sunshine can be expected with slowly moderating temperatures into the new work week.
Clouds will lower and thicken Wednesday afternoon and light rain will likely arrive after dark. Our next storm system will deliver rain and gusty winds in here late week. Though we haven’t “taken the bait” just yet, there’s the chance of some wind-whipped wrap-around snow Friday. We’ll give it another couple model runs before building that into the forecast…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2018/12/08/cold-and-quiet-big-winter-storm-to-our-southeast/