Category: Arctic Cold

Snow Update And Looking Ahead Towards Mid-March…

Snow will overspread central Indiana through the late morning hours into the afternoon.

While the overall idea where the accumulating snow would fall was a good one from early week, our initial expected amounts won’t come to fruition. The reason? The storm system is much weaker and faster moving than originally modeled.

Accordingly, this is a 1″ to 2″ type event for most of the area. The majority of the snow will fall from noon to 5p.

A period of snow will scoot across central Indiana from late morning into the early evening hours.

This same storm system will be responsible for a severe weather outbreak, including the possibility of a couple of strong tornadoes, across the Deep South this afternoon.

Back here on the home front, MUCH colder air will pour into the region this evening, remaining in place into the new work week. Back-to-back nights with lows in the upper 0s to lower 10s can be expected across central Indiana Monday and Tuesday mornings.

This is all part of the overall colder than normal first half of March, powered by the SOI crash (several week ago), deeply negative EPO, and MJO rumbling through the cold phases.

Additional storm dates to keep note off include Thursday night into Friday (more of a wintry threat with the 3/7-3/8 system) and Saturday into Sunday (potential strong thunderstorms with the system on 3/9-3/10).

Looking ahead, it still appears the mid-March warm-up is on track as the EPO flips to positive.

With that warm-up will also come a return of heavier precipitation events and a continued overall active storm track across the region. Precipitation looks to run above average for the mid-month stretch.

We’ll dig deeper early week on what lies ahead as we close the month of March and look ahead towards April…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/03/snow-update-and-looking-ahead-towards-mid-march/

All-Access Client Brief: Morning Thoughts After Looking Over The Latest Data For Sunday…

Brief: Accumulating snow

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Accumulating snow

When: 6a to 6p Sunday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to near 30

Wind: North 10-20 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal to moderate

Right off the bat, there’s no need to make any changes to our ongoing snowfall forecast. Snow will arrive into south-central Indiana before sunrise Sunday before expanding northeast through the morning hours, including Indianapolis by mid-to-late Sunday morning. Greatest potential of embedded heavier banding continues to look like it’ll lie across south-central parts of the state (thus the continuation of a 3″ to 5″ swath of snow). North winds will turn gusty Sunday evening and a bit of blowing/ drifting is possible on east-west roadways Sunday night as the late season arctic air arrives in earnest.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/02/all-access-client-brief-morning-thoughts-after-looking-over-the-latest-data-for-sunday/

All-Access Video Update: Latest Thoughts On Weekend Accumulating Snow And Tracking 2 Additional Storms Of Note Over The Next 10-Days…

Here’s our latest thinking around this weekend’s snow and we look ahead to the potential of (2) additional storms of note over the upcoming 10-day period…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/01/all-access-video-update-latest-thoughts-on-weekend-accumulating-snow-and-tracking-2-additional-storms-of-note-over-the-next-10-days/

All-Access Client Brief: Latest Thoughts Around This Weekend’s Snow…

Brief: Accumulating snow

Forecaster: McMillan

What: Accumulating snow

When: Late Saturday night into Sunday

Temperatures: Upper 20s to lower 30s

Wind: North 5-15 MPH

Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal

Overnight model trends are in overall better agreement, but still present notable differences- not only with the track, but overall strength and forward motion with the system. Saturday will be dry before clouds increase, lower, and thicken Saturday evening with snow overspreading the southern half of the state overnight. Mainly light to occasionally moderate snow (downstate) can be expected into the daytime on Sunday. The overall quick movement of this storm system will ultimately be a limiting factor in accumulation totals. Behind the system, much colder air will pour into the area Sunday night and Monday (single digit low and highs in the upper 10s to lower 20s).

Confidence: Low-medium

Next Update: This evening in video format

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/03/01/all-access-client-brief-latest-thoughts-around-this-weekends-snow/

VIDEO: Updated Thoughts Around This Weekend’s Winter Storm And The Pattern Through March…

Here’s our latest thinking around this weekend’s winter storm and a long range update through the month of March…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/28/video-updated-thoughts-around-this-weekends-winter-storm-and-the-pattern-through-march/

Reviewing The New JMA Weeklies; Do We Pull Out Of The Unseasonably Cold Pattern Later In March?

The updated JMA Weeklies are in and we wanted to take a moment to review those with you this morning. A more extensive long range post will arrive tonight. In addition, we’ll also have an updated video discussion around the potential (and increasing likelihood) of a winter storm this weekend later this evening.

Week 1


In agreement with the majority of the other data, the model overwhelms the pattern with unseasonably cold air. Note the anomalous pattern, including strong AK ridge that is helping “dislodge” the late season arctic air. The other item that stands out? The southeast ridge is no longer (for now).

Week 2

Cold is forecast to linger in the Week 2 timeframe, but it’s beginning to modify from the early month bitter shot. Secondly, the high latitude pattern has completely reversed from Week 1 (note the lower heights) and the southeast ridge is showing signs of re-emerging.

Weeks 3-4

Eastern ridging is shown during the mid to late month stretch and gives further reason to believe our mid month warm-up idea has merit. With this, the model also delivers an overall wetter pattern for the 2nd half of the month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/28/reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies-do-we-pull-out-of-the-unseasonably-cold-pattern-later-in-march/

Wednesday Evening Video Update On The Upcoming Weekend Winter Storm…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/27/wednesday-evening-video-update-on-the-upcoming-weekend-winter-storm/

All-Access Video: Model Differences On Potential Weekend Winter Storm…

Is a weekend winter storm brewing?

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/27/all-access-video-model-differences-on-potential-weekend-winter-storm/

Cold’s A Given, What About Snow?

Now that everyone is aboard the cold train through the 1st half of March, it’s time to turn our attention to other things and that’s the chance(s) of meaningful late season snow.

Before we talk about snow prospects, it’s important to know the magnitude of this cold. On the table is a period with multiple single digit days and highs in the lower to middle 20s- and those numbers will turn even colder if we can get a snowpack down. “Frigid” doesn’t begin to describe things- especially considering the average high is in the middle 40s and the average low is around 30 during the first week of March.

While we’re highly confident on the bitterly cold feel as we open meteorological winter, opportunities for snow are still fuzzy. There’s certainly a lot of potential in this pattern over the next couple of weeks, but honing in on the specifics are more of a challenge as the pattern transition gets underway.

With all of that said, Saturday continues to look like the best shot at accumulating snow potential in the near term as a coast-to-coast storm system travels across the country. As things stand today, this appears to be an I-40 to I-70 special from the Plains into the Ohio Valley before trending northeast towards the I-80 corridor in the Northeast. We caution, it’s far too early for specifics here.

Here’s a “ridiculously” early call of where we think the greatest chance of accumulating snow will lie Friday through Sunday.

Thereafter, a bitterly cold week is ahead before our attention will turn to the threat of another storm “attacking” the cold by the middle to latter part of next week (3/6 through 3/9 time frame)…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/26/colds-a-given-what-about-snow/

All-Access Video: Looking Deeper Into The Reasons To The Cold Open To March & Mid-Month Changes…

Discussing the reasons behind the frigid open to March and the mid-month changes that await…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/02/26/all-access-video-looking-deeper-into-the-reasons-to-the-cold-open-to-march-mid-month-changes/

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