Category: Arctic Cold

Feb 04

We Know The Cold Is Set To Return, But What About The Precipitation Pattern Mid-Feb Into Mid-March?

Updated 02.04.24 @ 11:11a

The coming pattern change back to cold has been long advertised and fits the overall theme of El Nino winters. The question now centers squarely on not “if” the cold is going to return, but just “how” cold will it get? Should we spend time in Phase 8 then the door opens for another opportunity to rival the magnitude of cold we saw in January. The strongly negative AO and NAO argues for pronounced high latitude blocking to develop yet again, and likely with more staying power than our January blocking episode.

500mb pattern Feb. 10 – Mar. 10

But enough about the return of below normal temperatures. What is the longer range guidance suggesting as far as the overall precipitation pattern goes? During the pattern “transition state” (late week into Week 2), we favor a more active precipitation pattern as at least (2) more organized storm systems should roll through the Ohio Valley. Specifically, we’re targeting a system 2/8 into 2/9 followed by a more organized and heavier precipitation maker in the 2/11 -2/13 timeframe.

Beyond mid-month, the majority of extended, long range forecast models highlight a drier than normal pattern returning to the picture. This is forecast to continue into the 1st half of March. A more active (wet) pattern is forecast for the Southeast. Not shocking, especially given the anticipated colder than normal regime.

This doesn’t mean snowfall will run below average, but it’s also impossible to get specific with winter storm potential more than a week out. While we’ll keep an eye on next weekend, the threat of winter weather potential will increase through the 2nd half of the month and into the 1st half of March with the colder pattern returning. The latest ensemble guidance is bullish on a snow pattern emerging during that time period.

Perhaps we’re gearing up for a busy 2nd half of the season?

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/we-know-the-cold-is-set-to-return-but-what-about-the-precipitation-pattern-mid-feb-into-mid-march/

Feb 04

Mild Week Ahead; More Prolonged Cold Pattern On The Table?

Updated 02.04.24 @ 8:55a

An unseasonably mild and quiet week is on tap. We aren’t forecasting rain to return into the picture until late week and the upcoming Super Bowl weekend. Highs will likely flirt with, if not exceed, the 60° mark Friday ahead of a frontal passage.

An unseasonably mild week is on tap.
Highs will flirt with, if not surpass, the 60° mark Friday.

After Friday’s FROPA, we’ll watch the trailing, more significant piece of energy impact the Ohio Valley next weekend. Obviously, it’s far too early to determine if we’re talking about more rain and/ or snow, but the initial hunch here is that this should be primarily a liquid event, despite the snowy solution on the overnight European model. We’ll watch carefully in the coming days.

The more active pattern late week and over the weekend is a signal that the pattern is changing. Once again, we believe that we’re heading into more of a prolonged version of what we dealt with in January, thought the jury is still out on the extreme solutions on the table with respect to just how cold (should we get into Phase 8 of the MJO then look out). As it is, the teleconnection suite aligning in a manner that they are is reason enough to be fired up on an all-out return of winter for mid-February. The forecasted strongly negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) provides us with a greater than normal confidence level that this cold pattern will have staying power not only through the remainder of the month, but into the 1st half of March (at least).

Latest long range modeling highlights the prolonged nature of the cold pattern:

Temperature anomalies Feb. 17 – Mar. 20

Make it a great Sunday, friends!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/mild-week-ahead-more-prolonged-cold-pattern-on-the-table/

Feb 01

Welcome To February…

Updated 02.01.24 @ 7:45a Aside from a dry back door cold front overnight, all is quiet in the weather world, locally, but changes are on the horizon around the 10th…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/welcome-to-february/

Jan 31

Unseasonably Dry And Calm Open To February; Winter’s Return…

Updated 01.31.24 @7:06a

In the short term, there’s really nothing of significance to discuss. We have no changes to our thinking that February opens on an unusually dry and mild note. In fact, we don’t forecast our next opportunity of measurable precipitation until late next week or next weekend.

Upcoming 10-day precipitation anomalies
Upcoming 10-day temperature anomalies

Despite the well earned thaw that we’ll enjoy now, winter is far from over. In fact, not only do we forecast a return to a cold, wintry pattern around Feb 10th (give or take a day or two), but it’s easy to build a case that this should be a more prolonged cold blast when compared to its January predecessor. The reason? Alignment with the teleconnection suite (emphasizing the anticipated strong negative NAO). We also anticipate the MJO getting into Phase 8 by mid-month which opens up the window for the potential of more extreme cold.

To no surprise, the latest ensemble data is pointing towards where the pattern is heading once past the first 1/3 of February.

Once we lock into the colder pattern, thinking here is we’ll remain locked in with an overall cold signal to close Feb and open March (first 10-14 days). It may be a “rubber band” type pattern. Cold to open before an abrupt flip to significantly warmer (hot?) conditions for the second half of March.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-dry-and-calm-open-to-february-winters-return/

Jan 29

“Steady As She Goes:” No Need To Change Ongoing Ideas Of Milder Than Normal Open To February Followed By Cold, Wintry Pattern Thereafter…

Updated 01.29.24 @ 5:42p

Let’s get to the headline right out of the gate: Winter is far, far from over. While we don’t have any significant changes to our ongoing long range pattern ideas, I did want to touch on the overall regime for February into March during this evening’s discussion.

Subsequently, we’re also continuing to lean into the milder than normal pattern that will be with us as we close January and navigate the first 1/3 of February. Today’s medium range model data backs this up well.

Day 1-5

Days 5-10

Days 10-15

Overall, the next couple of weeks should also result in a drier than normal pattern, locally.

It should come as no surprise given the teleconnection suite (all in warm phases, with the exception of the PNA which will result in cooler anomalies at times across the Southeast region). We note these same teleconnections shifting towards the colder phases around, or just before the 10th of February. The Madden-Julian Oscillation also is in the notorious warm phases.

Before 2/10, any cold will be fleeting and nothing significant given the time of year. Overall, an unseasonably mild pattern will dominate.

Post 2/10, we’re going to see a shift towards colder times. A lot of this has to do with the alignment amongst the teleconnections. Throw in the MJO heading into the frigid (for this time of year) Phase 8 and you have the potential to eventually see the pattern deliver the magnitude of cold we just saw come late February. (In case you missed it, we already set the bar on the type of cold we envision developing late February).

Given the NAO heading into the tank by this point, there’s fear this particular round of cold would likely have more staying power than it’s January predecessor. “Phase 8 MJO WITH a strongly negative NAO?” Look out below…

Interestingly, the NEW European Weeklies are going right to this set-up and perhaps the most bullish I’ve seen over a 30-day period from this distance. Winter is far, far from over, indeed.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/steady-as-she-goes-no-need-to-change-ongoing-ideas-of-milder-than-normal-open-to-february-followed-by-cold-wintry-pattern-thereafter/