Category: Arctic Cold

Your complete 7-Day forecast can be found in the video to the right of this article.

We continue to keep a close eye on the developing weather situation here late next week.  Many questions remain in regards to the track, timing, and strength of the cold air associated with an arctic cold front that will result in record-breaking cold for portions of the country next week.  How much fight will the southeast ridge put up as the front progresses east?  Will we have to deal with a wave of low pressure along the arctic boundary, potentially leading to some wintry “mischief” around these parts?  We hope to give some clarity around those questions by looking at some of the latest data below.

First, let’s take a look at the various model solutions for late next week.  It should be noted that the latest run of the National Weather Service’s GFS forecast model has taken a turn to look more like the overnight run of the European forecast model and suggests we have to deal with a wave of low pressure moving through here Friday into Saturday of next week, leading to the threat of wintry precipitation.  Taken at face value, this would suggest the threat of an accumulating snow event for central Indiana Friday night into Saturday morning of next week.  This is in stark contrast to the 0z GFS run signaling dry, cold weather during the aforementioned time frame.

Here’s a look at the latest GFS solution, valid next Friday evening:

There’s relatively good agreement in the GFS ensembles, but, again, we’ll have to fine tune the details.  It’s encouraging to see the agreement in the pattern evolution, though, this far out.

Here’s a look at the latest European forecast, again valid for next Friday evening.

As we spoke about above, the 0z ECMWF run suggests we have to deal with a wave of low pressure in the cold air here next Friday into Saturday.  Similar to the latest run of the GFS model, there would be the potential of accumulating snow here.  The ensembles are on the left and the operational run is on the right.  The precise details will have to be ironed out, but we note relative agreement here.

The latest Canadian forecast model also sees the wave of low pressure along the pressing arctic front, but suggests the wave is too far south to result in any sort of significant snowfall accumulation for central Indiana.  (As of this post time, the 12z Canadian ensemble package hadn’t arrived).

So, with all of that said, we still have plenty of time to watch things unfold in the coming days.  What are we confident in as of today?

• Brutally cold arctic air invading the northwest early in the week before slowly spreading east and south as we progress through the week.
• We’ll be in a much warmer (though very brief) pattern here Thursday as highs zoom into the middle 50s to near 60 with rain.
• We target the arctic front to blow through here during the day Friday.
• While we’ll turn MUCH colder than normal next weekend, we aren’t looking at the brutality of the cold that our friends out west will have to deal with.

What are the answers that have to be ironed out this week?

• Strength and depth of the cold air coming east.
• Strength of the upper ridge over the Southeast US.
• The resistance of the ridge will be crucial into determining where the “wintry precip. zone” sets up shop.