We’ll talk later today about the upcoming winter storm threat next weekend. While nothing is set in stone at this juncture, the pattern is aligning in a fashion for the…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Highlights:
Very Wet Period Before We Turn Colder…We hope you had a blessed Christmas full of joy, peace, and laughter!
It was a beautiful Christmas across the region, complete with temperatures reaching the 50 degree mark for the first time since 1987! Many would prefer cold and snow (yours truly included), but we couldn’t ask for better weather to get out and enjoy those new gifts from Santa! The countdown to Christmas 2016 begins now. 🙂
The weather will once again turn quite active around these parts as we head into the extended Christmas weekend. Waves of heavy rain will push north Saturday and grow heavy Saturday evening. Periodically heavy rain will continue Sunday. Flooding concerns are present as event rain totals of 3″-5″ should be widespread, with locally heavier amounts.
The other big weather item to note will be the tight temperature gradient from north to south Saturday evening. Note the modeled temperature forecast Saturday night, including temperatures ranging from the lower 40s north to the upper 60s south. Heads up for central IN communities, the cold air will win out Sunday as temperatures fall through the day after an early morning high.
Another push of heavy rain will surge into IN Monday as low pressure tracks northeast into the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of low pressure will form along the Mid Atlantic coast Monday and provide interior portions of the NE an icy/ snowy combo to open the new work week.
Things will (FINALLY) begin to dry out and chill down as we rumble closer to closing 2015 and welcoming 2016. Though forecast models aren’t seeing much in the way of precipitation with the surge of cold air, don’t be surprised if we deal with scattered snow showers during the Thursday-Friday period as upper energy teams up with the arctic surge.
All-in-all, it’s a step in the right direction for establishing the winter pattern that we think lies ahead, but we caution with a positive AO, things are likely to still be transient over the first 7-10 days of January. Once to mid month, we still believe a sustained shift to colder, more wintry times loom.
Highlights:
Before we discuss what lies ahead, let’s look back at yesterday’s snow event that “overachieved” for many. Particularly just northwest of the city where 2″-4″ fell. Snowfall rates were heavy enough to overcome the initially warm surface temperatures, and it was very impressive to see the way the snow accumulated considering this was a November event that took place from late morning into the early afternoon (when the sun angle does the majority of it’s work). This was an impressive first snow of the season and this morning’s snowpack is widespread throughout the Mid West.
The visible satellite this morning shows the snow cover across the central and northern portions of the state, where single digits and teens were common.
The next few days will feature dry and cold conditions. While we’ll remain below average, temperatures will slowly begin to moderate from the arctic intrusion of today.
We’ll get into a SW (milder air flow) regime for a brief period of time Thanksgiving Day out ahead of our next storm system that will move in Thanksgiving Night and Black Friday. Clouds will increase and moisture will spread into the region during the aforementioned time period. Most of the rain will fall Friday, so plan on taking the rain gear with you as you venture out to begin that Christmas shopping.
Much colder air will pour into the region Thanksgiving weekend and we’ll have to maintain a close eye on the evolution of things late next weekend into early December. Models will continue to waiver on specific solutions over the next few days, but there will be an attempt of a southern stream storm system coming out and “attacking” the cold air in place…
Highlights:
Our storm system is arriving on schedule this morning as rain is overspreading central IN. Just north of the city, snow flurries are falling as we type this (Boone County). Further north it’s mainly a snow event. Elsewhere, rain will continue to overspread the region before transitioning to snow from late morning into the early afternoon from northwest to southeast.
Here’s what the radar may look like as we progress from morning into the afternoon
We think rain will transition to snow for Indianapolis, itself, just after lunch and may come down heavily for a time from early afternoon into the mid afternoon hours before tapering off as evening arrives. While it may be falling “fast and furious” for a time, warm surface temperatures will limit accumulations from what they would be otherwise. Here’s our updated snowfall map.
The big concern this evening will be flash freezing as a gusty NW flows travels over a fresh snowpack just to our north and helps temperatures plummet into the teens tonight. Wind chills in the single digits can be expected followed by highs tomorrow only in the 20s.
Moderation will occur as we move through Thanksgiving week before our next storm system arrives late Thanksgiving Day. Rain and breezy conditions will move in late Thursday into Friday before a much colder air mass oozes into the state late in the period. This may set the stage for a rather “interesting” open for December as a storm system tries to “attack” the cold…