Dec 08
It’s been a ridiculously busy day and a longer post will arrive late tonight, including the updated 7-day. Models continue to struggle on the evolution of things this weekend. The…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quick-word-on-the-weekend-storm/
Dec 07
Highlights:
Busy Times Ahead…The fun and active winter pattern has arrived and will keep us forecasters on our toes as we go through the next couple weeks. Early sunshine will give way to an increasingly cloudy sky this afternoon and a couple snow flurries or scattered light snow showers may precede the arctic plunge this evening. Snow lovers, unfortunately the arctic wave didn’t materialize as we once thought. (Hang in there, you have many more snow opportunities ahead). We’ll turn windy tonight and wind chills will fall into the single digits by Thursday morning. We’ll stay dry, but cold to wrap up the work week.
Eyes will then shift to the weekend as a developing storm system pushes snow into the region Saturday night. Snow and/ or a wintry mix will continue Sunday. Where this remains all snow, it’s likely to be a “plowable” event. We still need to fine tune the details over the next couple of days to hone in on just where the mixing line will set up. Thinking now is that from Indianapolis and points north, this is mostly a snow event, but stay tuned.
Another round of snow and wind will blow into town early next week. This will likely be ahead of an even colder push of air by the middle part of next week.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/busy-winter-pattern/
Dec 06
The pattern over the upcoming 10-15 days presents a whole slew of challenges, but has the potential to be one winter enthusiasts remember for a long time. Arctic air is beginning to press and will eventually overwhelm the pattern by the end of the week. Additionally, a second and third surge of arctic air will be inbound next week. Each arctic plunge may become more severe as we go, especially if we can get a snowpack down. The potential is on the table for sub-zero temperatures (not even counting wind chills) by mid-month. That, my friends, is not normal for December, and is in stark contrast from Decembers of recent memory. Whether or not we get one “big ticket” event, or deal with a parade of storms that lay snow down is up for debate and will require burning the midnight oil in the good ole weather office as we progress through the next couple weeks.
The overall set-up is certainly an intriguing one. Cross-polar flow seeds pressing arctic air into the pattern (again, it comes in “waves” over the next couple weeks, each subsequently stronger). What’s of particular interest is the battle that develops between a tag-team of ridges- SW and SE (at times these will put up more resistance than the other). Long-time Hoosiers know that when cross-polar flow gets involved it can “suppress” storms, but rest easy in knowing that the SE ridge will provide resistance. In fact, some across the lower Ohio and TN Valleys may eventually complain that the southeast ridge is providing too much resistance.
As confident as we are in the overall dramatic flip in the pattern to one capable of producing severe winter weather over the next couple weeks, per usual, the devil is in the details. Expect a tight gradient between areas where heavy snow begins to stack up and little to nothing- at least initially. Additionally, depending how things evolve, icing events may eventually require attention for portions of the lower Ohio Valley and TN Valley as that shallow arctic air “oozes” south over what may become quite the impressive snowpack north. This will require further attention in week 2.
At the end of the day, there will be “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to storms (always are) and each will require our attention and fine tuning. However, if you’re a lover of winter weather, it’s hard not to sit back and smile at what’s in front of us over the upcoming couple weeks, especially compared to the past couple Decembers.
Needless to say, we’re on the field and in the game…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/would-you-rather-be-in-the-game-fighting-to-win-or-sitting-on-the-bench/
Dec 05
Highlights:
Find That Heavier Winter Gear…Our next area of low pressure will push northeast between now (north-central Gulf Coast) and Tuesday night (central Appalachians). Most of the widespread rain will fall across southeast IN this go around, but enough moisture will spread west to result in scattered to numerous showers Tuesday morning. With temperatures in the lower to middle 30s, don’t be surprised if a sleet pellet or snow flake mix in at times. All in all, expect another “raw” day. Drier times will await for the evening rush home.
Wednesday will feature mostly dry conditions, but the arctic hounds will be howling to our northwest. Snow showers will precede this arctic blast Wednesday night and Thursday morning and may be enough to accumulate for some. While models remain drier than we’d expect (given the overall set-up), we may “eek” out just enough moisture to coat the ground up for some. Thursday will be a frigid day, including wind chills in the single digits. Heavier winter gear will be required to wrap up the work week.
The weekend features more “fun and games” as an area of low pressure attacks stale cold air left over from the late week arctic push. Is the cold air deep enough to create wintry problems or does the southerly flow help scour out the chill and lead to more of a liquid event. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/arctic-air-inbound/
Dec 05
1.) Rain builds back in late tonight and Tuesday morning and will favor the southern and eastern half of the state. Drier trends develop Tuesday afternoon as the moisture pulls northeast.
Forecast radar 11a Tuesday
2.) A surge of arctic air will pour into the region as we wrap up the work week, including single digit wind chills. Lows in the 10s and highs in the 20s can be expected Thursday and Friday.
Forecast temperature anomalies to close the work week.
3.) Despite the cold, snow chances look unimpressive, per the latest data. While we, personally, still believe there will be more of an arctic wave to deal with along the arctic boundary pressing Wednesday night into Thursday (enough to accumulate), modeling says “we’re crazy” and brings the arctic plunge in without much fanfare (flurries).
4.) Speaking of snow, modeling also says the 3rd wintry threat we spoke of Sunday (for about a week from now) arrives with a warm-up and is more of a liquid event. While we tend to think this is still a threat that could deal our region wintry conditions, it would be irresponsible of us not to convey the lower confidence (heck, modeling suggests we’re close to 60 degrees next Monday).
5.) Our thoughts on a snowy December began last summer as research began on the upcoming winter. It’s based off a variety of solutions, but leans heavily on the idea blocking would develop and help “lock in” an active pattern with just enough cold air to create the wintry “goods.” (Pressing cold and an active jet undercutting the cold to create winter storm potential). While bullish on snow (still are), we’ve never had out a very cold December forecast (instead only “slightly,” or 1 degree, below average). If the recent weekend trend is correct, it says the upcoming (10) day period we thought would essentially deliver a month’s worth of snow is incorrect. Sure that gives us the second half of the month to still make up for it, but it becomes increasingly difficult to see the wild model swings and inconsistency without relaying those inconsistencies to you, the viewer.
Our overall thinking remains (as stubborn as it may seem) on December, but please know we also see how this could bust. There’s a fine line between communicating both ideas to you. Confidence is lower than we would like it to be…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-rambles-2/