Category: Arctic Cold

Jan 14

Bitterly Cold Start, But Moderation On The Way…

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“Relaxation” Of The Bitterly Cold Pattern…That forecast package title sure wouldn’t suffice describing the weather outside this morning.  It’s a downright bitter feel, including below zero temperatures throughout north-central Indiana.  Patchy freezing fog and scattered flurries are also with us this morning.  With some sunshine later, we’ll “warm” into the lower 20s this afternoon.  A few flurries may fly tonight as a weak disturbance moves through the region.

Sunshine will be with us to wrap up the work week along with slowly moderating temperatures.  Average highs this time of the year are in the middle 30s so we’ll be closer to average Thursday and Friday- though it’ll likely feel much warmer simply based off just how cold it’s been as of late.  Gusty southwest winds will blow milder air in here briefly Saturday as temperatures climb into the middle 40s.

A cold front will sweep the state Sunday morning with a possible rain shower that’ll quickly transition to scattered snow showers as the colder air filters back into the region.  The next storm system of note arrives early next week.

Upcoming 7-day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: Dusting
  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.10″ – 0.20″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bitterly-cold-start-but-moderation-on-the-way/

Jan 12

Looking Ahead…

January is off to a colder than average start across a large portion of the country, including the Hoosier state:

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anomThe snow and ice pack has expanded over the past couple of weeks in rather significant fashion:

nsm_depth_2015011205_National

Two storm systems have offered up busy times over the Ohio Valley the past week. Note liquid equivalent numbers the past (7) days- most significant over central Indiana.  Most of this has been in the form of wintry precipitation (snow and ice).

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A weak weather system may offer up light snow chances mid week.  The high resolution NAM and European print off light snow while other models “see” us mainly dry mid week.

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The other big story in the short term will be more bitterly cold arctic air (single digits tonight and close to zero Wednesday morning).

While we’ll certainly “warm” compared to the freezer we’ve been in the first two weeks of January, sneaky arctic highs remain on the field and will put a dent in the air masses from reaching unseasonably mild levels for any length of time this weekend and Week 2.  See Friday’s GFS output and the sneaky arctic high north:

gfs_ptype_slp_east_18

The next significant storm system brews around the 20th (give or take a day, or two) and could offer up rain or a more wintry option.  Keep a close eye on the period 01.20 – 01.23.

Thereafter, the arctic hounds likely come calling again as the period quickly returns to “lock and load” cold late January into February.  The European and GFS ensembles both show a rebuilding blocking AK ridge and suggest arctic air floods the country yet again as cross-polar flow gets involved:

GFSensembleslateJan

It’s all part of a package that should be the beginning of a colder than average and stormy mid and late winter stretch.  Sea surface temperature anomalies are a textbook setup for a very wintry time of things for our neck of the woods.  Note the Modoki El Nino and warm waters sitting off the PAC NW- both cold/ stormy indicators here:

SSTLateWinterSetUp

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-ahead/

Jan 12

Turning Colder; Icy Mix To Light Snow Before Ending…

Greatest ice accumulations set up from Indianapolis and points north last night and this morning.  Glaze reached just under one quarter inch here across southern Boone County.

The icy mixture will transition to light snow before ending mid morning.

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Temperatures will also be sliding backwards through the day.  Morning highs in the lower 30s will fall into the 20s this afternoon.

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The big push of arctic air arrives tonight into Tuesday and sets the stage for widespread sub-zero lows Wednesday morning.  Wind chills will, of course, be even colder (10 to 20 below zero).

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We’ll be back later tonight to talk about what lies ahead in the longer term.  Stay safe out there!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/turning-colder-icy-mix-to-light-snow-before-ending/

Jan 11

Ice Storm Warning…

Freezing rain (initially may be mixed with sleet) overspreads central Indiana between 1p-3p. We advise to get any and all travel done prior to 1p and plan to stay in…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/ice-storm-warning/

Jan 10

Ice Storm For Some Sunday Evening; Late Night Thoughts…

Just a quick update to give you some fresh thoughts on the next winter storm that will impact central Indiana.

We bracket the hours of 1p-3p for the onset of sleet and freezing rain across central Indiana.

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Coverage and intensity of freezing rain will increase as we progress through the evening hours.  We suggest hunkering down at home (or at a loved ones home) for the Colts game, as roadways will likely become hazardous during the game.

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Early data hot off the press this evening is suggesting Ice Storm Warning criteria (freezing rain amounts of 0.25″, or greater) is met through the heart of central Indiana.

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A fresh push of cold, arctic, air will ooze back into central Indiana during the day Monday. We think overnight lows head back into the single digits Tuesday morning and below zero Wednesday morning.  Needless to say, should power outages take place, a nasty situation will develop with the new push of cold air.

Please stay tuned to your favorite media or means of obtaining weather information, as this will be an impactful event for central Indiana tomorrow afternoon into Monday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/ice-storm-for-some-sunday-evening-late-night-thoughts/