Category: Arctic Cold

Mar 10

Extended Period Of Unseasonably Cold Air…

Today will begin a rather extended period of unseasonably chilly air that will grip the region.  It’s not until the latter portions of next week that we should begin to see slowly moderating temperatures.

The reason for this is a persistent trough setting up over the Great Lakes and eastern portions of the country.  From time to time, individual disturbances will come racing along in the fast northwest flow aloft and help to reinforce the cold and also create snow potential.

Forecast models continue to show an eastern trough into the middle parts of next week.

 

This is an impressively cold pattern for so late in the season.

This is the type pattern that will promote multiple nights in the teens over the upcoming week.  We forecast coldest nights to be Saturday night, Sunday night, Wednesday night, and Thursday night.  Each has the potential to send neighborhoods into the middle-upper teens.

As far as snow goes, we still are keeping an eye on the early stages of the work week.  We’ll fine tune things this weekend, but models continue to show energy diving southeast Monday that would help snow overspread the region during the day, continuing into Tuesday morning.  This time of year, snowfall rates and time of day means a world of difference between snow flying in the air, versus accumulating.  The potential is there for light accumulation Monday night as reinforcing cold air pours in.

Stay tuned!  Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/extended-period-of-unseasonably-cold-air/

Feb 26

Transitional Week Of Weather…

Highlights:

  • Warming back up
  • Storms around Tuesday-Wednesday
  • Colder late week
  • Windy warm-up next weekend

Don’t Blink…The second half of the weekend has gotten off to a frosty, but bright start!  Unfortunately, clouds will begin to increase this afternoon.  Thankfully, the increasing clouds won’t keep temperatures from getting a significant boost this afternoon compared to the frigid air of Saturday.

A few showers will scoot through the state Monday, but most of these will be confined to the southern third of Indiana and most neighborhoods should remain rain-free.  A more significant storm system will lift northeast Tuesday and this will provide better coverage of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday (especially late in the day) into Wednesday.  After a midnight high, temperatures will fall through the daytime hours Wednesday.

Another fast-moving, weak, weather maker will impact us Thursday evening into Friday morning.  Scattered showers Thursday PM will transition to light snow showers overnight into early Friday morning.  Friday will be chilly, but moderating conditions return as early as Saturday, along with a strong and gusty southwest flow by the afternoon!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/transitional-week-of-weather/

Feb 21

Agri-Worries: Reason To Be Concerned…

February-to-date is running significantly above average (a whopping 9°+ above average at IND).

The anomalous warmth is impressive enough, but perhaps the most impressive is the duration of the unseasonably warm, April-like, warmth.  By the time all is said and done (Friday night), many communities will set multiple new records for so many consecutive days of 60°+ level warmth in the month of February.  That doesn’t set well for spring vegetation.  Given the look to the overall pattern in the weeks ahead, it’s hard to deny the glaring signs for additional well above normal warmth (speaking in “overall” terms).  Accordingly, vegetation will likely continue to sprout and bloom early with such a pattern- even as far north as here in central IN.

That said, even in the warmest of patterns, “jabs” of late-season arctic air can make it’s presence felt.  Despite our thoughts on being finished with sustained wintry conditions, we’re far from finished with cold “jabs.”  With spring vegetation likely to be well ahead of schedule, concerns are valid for potential damage to early season growth as we move forward over the coming weeks.

Let’s remember, on average, it’s not until we get to mid and late April before we can signal the “all clear” on the last 32° freeze.  Still have a long way to go, friends…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/agri-worries-reason-to-be-concerned/

Feb 09

Bitter Feel Today…

Screen Shot 2017-02-09 at 7.43.52 AMHighlights:

  • Frigid Thursday
  • Milder, but wet this weekend
  • Turning colder next week

Bundle Up…Temperatures are running much colder than this time 24 hours ago with most waking up to the teens.  Throw in a strong and gusty NW wind and the ‘chill factor has fallen to as low as zero for many neighborhoods this morning.  Thankfully, sunshine should be with us this afternoon.

Our wind flow will shift around to the southwest and usher in a milder brand of air by Friday afternoon.  Eventually, that flow will also be an increasingly moist one, as well, and showers will develop Saturday, continuing into Sunday.  We expect the cold front to slip through the state Sunday night and allow colder air to return.

Questions abound early-mid next week.  Whether or not we can get a piece of energy to dig in and create wintry “fun and games” is yet to be determined.  Modeling is going back and forth on that idea, versus, multiple, weaker waves capable of producing scattered snow showers in the colder air mass.  We’ll continue to monitor things.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bitter-feel-today/

Feb 08

Heavy, Wet Snow “Thump” This Afternoon…

The set-up:

A cold front is stalled across TN and lower Ohio Valleys this morning.  Meanwhile, upper level energy is moving out of the north-central Plains.  This upper level energy will continue to slide southeast and “feed” a developing surface low along the stalled front by evening.  Strong frontogenesis is forecast and this will aid in development of localized heavy snow bands and associated intense snowfall rates by afternoon, continuing into the evening.  (If you’re interested in learning more about frontogenesis and it’s impact on winter weather, please read this fantastic paper).  Here’s our updated snowfall forecast.  Please note snow amounts won’t necessarily follow the clean lines below, but this is our best idea as of now.

SnowEvent2.8.17FinalTiming:

We expect initial light to moderate snow to impact northern areas this morning, but it’s not until this afternoon when the “real deal” begins.  The onset of heavy snow will set-up just north of the city and the “bulls eye” with this event from a heavy snow perspective may very well paint itself across Indy’s northern suburbs, including several hours of heavy, wet snow from 12p-5p.  Moderate to heavy snow will then shift south to encompass the city, itself, mid to late afternoon, including the rush hour.  We highly recommend getting home early today if at all possible as the heaviest snowfall rates for the city, itself, will likely center on the evening rush.  Things will likely be very, very messy for travel as heavy wet snow falls.  In periods of heaviest snow, visibility near zero can be expected, especially just north of the city.

Forecast radar 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 4p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 4p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 6p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Forecast radar 6p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

Snowfall should begin to diminish and pull east between 7p-8p for most of central Indiana.  Cold air will follow as lows tonight dip into the middle teens for most with a significant snowpack down.  Highs Thursday will only top out around 20.

As always, be sure to follow us on social media (Twitter: @indywx, Facebook: IndyWx.com, Instagram: IndyWxCom) for more updates on the go!  Be safe and happy snow to all!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/heavy-wet-snow-thump-this-afternoon/