Category: Arctic Cold

Reviewing The New JMA Weeklies; Do We Pull Out Of The Unseasonably Cold Pattern Later In March?

The updated JMA Weeklies are in and we wanted to take a moment to review those with you this morning. A more extensive long range post will arrive tonight. In addition, we’ll also have an updated video discussion around the potential (and increasing likelihood) of a winter storm this weekend later this evening.

Week 1


In agreement with the majority of the other data, the model overwhelms the pattern with unseasonably cold air. Note the anomalous pattern, including strong AK ridge that is helping “dislodge” the late season arctic air. The other item that stands out? The southeast ridge is no longer (for now).

Week 2

Cold is forecast to linger in the Week 2 timeframe, but it’s beginning to modify from the early month bitter shot. Secondly, the high latitude pattern has completely reversed from Week 1 (note the lower heights) and the southeast ridge is showing signs of re-emerging.

Weeks 3-4

Eastern ridging is shown during the mid to late month stretch and gives further reason to believe our mid month warm-up idea has merit. With this, the model also delivers an overall wetter pattern for the 2nd half of the month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/reviewing-the-new-jma-weeklies-do-we-pull-out-of-the-unseasonably-cold-pattern-later-in-march/

Wednesday Evening Video Update On The Upcoming Weekend Winter Storm…

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All-Access Video: Model Differences On Potential Weekend Winter Storm…

Is a weekend winter storm brewing?

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Cold’s A Given, What About Snow?

Now that everyone is aboard the cold train through the 1st half of March, it’s time to turn our attention to other things and that’s the chance(s) of meaningful late season snow.

Before we talk about snow prospects, it’s important to know the magnitude of this cold. On the table is a period with multiple single digit days and highs in the lower to middle 20s- and those numbers will turn even colder if we can get a snowpack down. “Frigid” doesn’t begin to describe things- especially considering the average high is in the middle 40s and the average low is around 30 during the first week of March.

While we’re highly confident on the bitterly cold feel as we open meteorological winter, opportunities for snow are still fuzzy. There’s certainly a lot of potential in this pattern over the next couple of weeks, but honing in on the specifics are more of a challenge as the pattern transition gets underway.

With all of that said, Saturday continues to look like the best shot at accumulating snow potential in the near term as a coast-to-coast storm system travels across the country. As things stand today, this appears to be an I-40 to I-70 special from the Plains into the Ohio Valley before trending northeast towards the I-80 corridor in the Northeast. We caution, it’s far too early for specifics here.

Here’s a “ridiculously” early call of where we think the greatest chance of accumulating snow will lie Friday through Sunday.

Thereafter, a bitterly cold week is ahead before our attention will turn to the threat of another storm “attacking” the cold by the middle to latter part of next week (3/6 through 3/9 time frame)…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/colds-a-given-what-about-snow/

All-Access Video: Looking Deeper Into The Reasons To The Cold Open To March & Mid-Month Changes…

Discussing the reasons behind the frigid open to March and the mid-month changes that await…

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