Category: AO

VIDEO: Sunshine Returns To Open The Work Week, But So Do Bitterly Cold Conditions…

Updated 01.09.22 @ 8:30a

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Cold, Wintry Pattern Settling In For The 2nd Half Of January…

Updated 01.08.22 @ 4:35p

While we’re dealing with our own wintry precipitation this afternoon, snow lovers continue to wait for the first big event of the season. Watching 2 snow storms blow by to our south over the past week was an added sting.

Patience may very well be rewarded as we navigate the second half of the month as a classic wintry pattern carves itself out over the eastern portion of the country.

The GFS was first to key in on this pattern evolution, and now, today, the European is finally seeing the light (shown below). What makes this pattern different is the likelihood of high latitude blocking (courtesy of a negative arctic oscillation) which will help the regime sustain itself. On that note, it’s been my experience that the GFS does better handling AO transitions from positive to negative and was the primary reason we leaned on the GEFS earlier this week. Run to run consistency was also another player.

November and December failed to produce teleconnections that were aligned for cold, but that should change as we push towards mid month. This is ultimately a byproduct of the primary driver- the MJO rumbling into Phase 8 (finally). As the AO goes negative, the EPO should follow suit. Unlike in December, the PNA should also be in a much more favorable state for persistent eastern cold.

The idea here is that the majority (if not all) of the second half of January will feature below to well below average temperatures and multiple opportunities for “more meaningful” snow- whether it be from a series of Clippers, a more classic panhandle cross-country winter storm (example pictured below), or a combination of both.

At the very least, it’s certainly not a boring pattern, and for the first time this season, it appears as if we’ll be able to lock this cold in.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-wintry-pattern-settling-in-for-the-2nd-half-of-january/

VIDEO: Freezing Rain Arrives This Afternoon…

Updated 01.08.22 @ 9:55a

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VIDEO: Double Shot Of Arctic Love Heading Our Way; Long Range Update Into Late January…

Updated 01.06.22 @ 7:20a

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The Long Awaited Shift To More Winter-Like Conditions Begins…

Updated 01.01.22 @ 8:06a

From our family to yours, here’s wishing you a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2022!

As we embark on a new year, a new weather pattern will take hold. Consider the drastic difference of going from a regime that’s been much more October or November-like (December ‘21 temperatures ran a stunning 8.8° above average on the month) to one that will feature a series of reinforcing blasts of cold air- at what’s traditionally the coldest time of the year.

Temperatures ran well above normal in December from the Plains into the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and East.
A flip in the overall regime will drive cold over the upcoming couple weeks into the very place December was warm.

The reasons behind the shift in the pattern start with the MJO moving into Phase 8.

Can we amplify things into Phase 1 towards mid month? The American modeling suggests that’s on the playing field. Meanwhile, the Euro wants to take things towards the neutral phase. If we can swing into Phase 1, the ante would be upped for “locking” the cold in for the 2nd half of the month.


As it is, the majority of teleconnections are being “forced” (byproduct, in my opinion, of the MJO) into more favorable phases for cold. Remember, only a couple days ago this wasn’t being shown, but as the data is understanding the driving force (MJO movement), the EPO is joining the PNA and WPO colder camp. I would expect the AO trend to follow suit in the week ahead.

More on all of this in the AM, including the opportunities for snow and wintry precipitation (more than the novelty level stuff we’ll deal with early Sunday AM) in the weeks ahead…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/the-long-awaited-shift-to-more-winter-like-conditions-begins/