Category: AO

VIDEO: Cold Shot To Close The Week; Prospects Are Rising For A More Beneficial Rain Event Early Next Week…

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VIDEO: Getting To Be That Time Of Year- Pattern Turns Busier To Close October…

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What Can We Learn From A Persistent Negative October AO For The Upcoming Winter?

October has opened on quite a chilly note across not only central Indiana, but a good chunk of the eastern half of the country. Officially, Indianapolis is running 8.4° below average, month-to-date.

While warming will occur in the upcoming 7-day period, there are already seeds being planted for the return of unseasonably chilly conditions after this transitional warmth.

A transitional period of warmth will engulf the region over the better part of the upcoming 7-days.

The pattern will take on signs that you’d expect from a positive PNA and trending negative EPO. That will pull the chill back into the east and we may just may trend wetter during the mid and late month period, as a series of cold fronts sweep through the region (fingers crossed).

The purpose of this post is to focus on the predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation (or AO) and what, if anything, we can learn for the upcoming winter. Note the AO continues a negative look over the upcoming couple weeks (it’s been negative so far this month, as well).

The combination of the persistent negative AO so far this month, along with what’s forecasted over the coming few weeks, got us interested to see what kind of patterns occurred during the following winter (Dec. through Feb.). We went back and looked at all October with a negative AO of 1, or more, since 1960 and this is what the analogs produced:

There’s obviously a lot of other ingredients we’ll factor into our winter outlook this year (per usual), but this is another interesting case study in front of us, especially with so many climate models blow torching the upcoming winter.

Our complete annual winter outlook will be online Sunday, November 1st.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/what-can-we-learn-from-a-persistent-negative-october-ao-for-the-upcoming-winter/

Teleconnections Still Aren’t Playing Nice; Does This Change In April?

Seemingly all winter, we’ve been unable to get the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA, and MJO to cooperate and align. The end result is an overall pattern that has been unable to produce widespread, sustained cold. As we progress through the remainder of the month, the contradicting signals will continue.

Despite the negative NAO (a signal notorious for drawn out cold patterns this time of year), the deeply negative PNA and developing strongly positive EPO will hold off any significant cold. Even in the immediate term, notice how the signals are’t matching up (i.e. strongly positive NAO with a negative EPO).

The MJO is forecast to rumble into Phase 4 to close the month and this is also a phase that favors eastern ridging.

Given the above, to no surprise, the consensus of model data is for a warm, wet close to the month.

Does this pattern change in April and we actually see some alignment with our teleconnections? What about the MJO? Does the current movement continue and do we get into the colder Phase 1 as currently shown? Interesting times ahead as we sort through the data. Our official April Outlook will be online late week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/teleconnections-still-arent-playing-nice-does-this-change-in-april/

VIDEO: Gorgeous Weekend; Discussing Timing Of Systems Next Week And Longer Range Impacts Of The MJO/ EPO…

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