Category: 7-Day Outlook

Tuesday Night Weather Rambles…

It’s hard to believe we’re approaching the July 4th holiday already.  Where is the summer going?!  I remember back in my football days, once past the 4th, summer was over for me as two-a-days began the following week.  Come late July, we would beg for the fall semester of school to begin!  🙂

If you’re like me, the upcoming weather pattern in the days ahead will certainly have you craving fall!  Lows in outlying areas will dip into the upper 40s come Friday morning (not bad for the 4th of July, huh)?  Anyway, here are some things that have the attention of IndyWx.com in the days (and weeks) ahead…

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1.)  Trending Cooler…Note the cooler air in the upper Mid West this evening, including many already in the 50s and 60s.  That cooler air will head south with time Wednesday into Thursday. We’ll note the cooler temperatures tomorrow as highs only reach the middle to upper 70s.  The cooler than normal temperatures will really settle into the region tomorrow night and Thursday, continuing for the big 4th of July holiday.  Some outlying communities may fall into the upper 40s Friday morning!

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2.)  Arthur…What’s now Tropical Storm Arthur will likely continue to strengthen in the days ahead and potentially come too close for comfort to the NC Outer Banks around the upcoming holiday.  By the time Arthur is along (or just offshore) the NC coastline, he may be packing hurricane force winds.  Certainly, plenty of rough seas are to be had up and down the mid Atlantic coast into the Northeast coastal waters for the upcoming long holiday weekend.

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3.)  Continued Active Pattern…Though we’ll enjoy some much needed dry weather as we cool things down, an active time of things will return early next week, including multiple storm chances.

Additionally, we don’t forecast any sort of significant heat for the foreseeable future.  In fact, we may “enjoy” another round of unseasonably cool air by the middle to latter parts of next week, as projected by the ESRL/PSD upper air pattern above.

ssta.glob.DJF2015.1jun2014

4.)  Thoughts Turning To Fall & Winter…Part of what we provide here are thoughts on the seasonal and long range, including a variety of model data that may argue for, and against, our seasonal ideas (have to keep an open mind and be sure not to “model hug” any sort of data set).  The latest JAMSTEC ideas have to make those eastern winter lovers smile…

As we transition from fall to winter, the model suggests a weak, to borderline moderate, El Nino progresses into a Modoki ENSO event (read more HERE about the differences between an El Nino event and an El Nino Modoki event).  Combine this with the warmer than normal north-central and northeastern PAC waters and the players are, at least, on the field for a colder than average east- particularly southeast.

temp2.glob.DJF2015.1jun2014

Pure speculation at this point, and it should be pointed out that this model struggled on the cold winter last year at this time.  Instead of the cold winter we experienced, it’s 2013 June forecast for December-February 2013-2014 was a warm one.  We’ll keep a close eye on the trends through late summer into fall.

An important note- as opposed to looking into the flip-flopping forecast temperature regime at this juncture, focus more on the projected oceanic patterns.  Time will tell, but even though we’re only into early July, know that we continue to formulate some early thoughts and ideas on the upcoming fall and winter…

Have a relaxing night and God Bless!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/01/tuesday-night-weather-rambles/

Not Out Of The Woods Just Yet…

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66/ 86

65/ 77

58/ 73

51/ 76

52/ 80

59/ 83

64/ 87 

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While we’re kicking the day off on a more pleasant weather note when compared to that of Monday, we’re still not out of the woods just yet in regards to thunderstorm chances.  After a noisy night across the region, another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely this afternoon.  Some of the storms could reach severe levels- especially from Indianapolis and points south this afternoon.  Large hail and straight line winds are the biggest concerns.  We’ll then begin to transition to the much cooler and drier pattern for mid week.  A few instability-driven showers may pop Wednesday as cooler air spills into the region.  Thursday through Sunday will then feature dry conditions along with unseasonably cool temperatures. We’ll begin to crank the heat and humidity back up early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/01/not-out-of-the-woods-just-yet/

Storm Chances Remain Before We Turn Much Cooler…

Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Independence Day Sat.               70/ 83 72/ 88 72/ 85 63/ 78 59/ 74 51/ 77 54/ 82  Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/29/storm-chances-remain-before-we-turn-much-cooler/

Humid Weekend; Severe Potential Monday.

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Independence Day

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69/ 83

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A warm front is lifting north through the region this morning and rain will continue to expand in coverage this morning as the front lifts north.  Sunshine will then quickly build back into central Indiana this afternoon, along with plenty of humidity.  We’ll get back into the scattered afternoon/ evening “splash and dash” thunderstorm regime later today and again Sunday.  Looking further ahead, concern is growing about a potential severe weather event here Monday and we’ll have an additional post later this weekend discussing this potential in more detail.  For now, plan to pay special close attention to Monday’s forecast with damaging severe weather potential in play (all modes of severe weather at hand).  We still forecast a MUCH cooler, drier regime building in mid week and remaining in place through the upcoming holiday weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/28/humid-weekend-severe-potential-monday/

“Summery” Weekend, But Eyeing A Cool 4th!

Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr.               65/ 85 69/ 82 69/ 85 71/ 87 72/ 85 63/ 81 54/ 75  Light Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/27/summery-weekend-but-eyeing-a-cool-4th/

Nice Day Shaping Up!

Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed.               65/ 83 64/ 85 67/ 86 71/ 87 73/ 90 73/ 89 64/ 79  – –…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/26/nice-day-shaping-up/

Overall Drier, But Rain Chances Remain…

Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue.               65/ 83 61/ 83 63/ 85 68/ 86 69/ 88 71/ 89 71/ 90  Light –…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/25/overall-drier-but-rain-chances-remain/

Splash And Dash Storms To Open The Work Week…

Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun.               68/ 88 69/ 81 66/ 82 61/ 84 65/ 83 68/ 84 70/ 87  Light Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/23/splash-and-dash-storms-to-open-the-work-week/

Feeling Like Summer!

Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat.               63/ 85 66/ 87 69/ 80 65/ 83 63/ 83 69/ 80 66/ 83  Light Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/22/feeling-like-summer-2/

Diminished, But Not Eliminated…

Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr.               70/ 85 67/ 85 65/ 85 67/ 88 69/ 83 66/ 83 63/ 82  Light Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/20/diminished-but-not-eliminated/

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