Category: 7-Day Outlook

Apr 19

Unseasonably Cool Stretch…

Screen Shot 2015-04-19 at 9.10.05 PMHighlights:

  • More heavy rain and embedded thunder tonight
  • Unseasonably cool air this week
  • Frost and freeze threat

SAT_EUS_WVENH_ANILow pressure over IN this evening will move north into the Great Lakes Monday and strengthen along the way.  A cold front will sweep through the region later tonight and Monday morning and shut off the heavier rainfall.  Before that we have several hours of additional moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms tonight.  Tomorrow will be a breezy and MUCH cooler day and help set the tone for the week as a whole.  We’ll watch for a weak disturbance to provide a shower chance mid week and keep a close eye on the weekend for the chances of rain.  Model data is in disagreement on Saturday as of now.

RAD_KIND_N0R_ANITonight’s radar, courtesy of WeatherTap.com, shows another slug of moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunder moving in from the south.  Heavy downpours will make for excellent sleeping weather tonight.

Overall rain coverage will decrease significantly as we progress through Monday, but we can’t totally rule out the chance of afternoon showers redeveloping in “pop-corn” fashion as just enough sunshine may work on what will be a very unseasonably cool air mass moving in.

Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows this Monday afternoon.

1Unseasonably chilly air will be the rule this week- including 50s for highs most every day.  The only exception may be highs around 60 Tuesday and highs that may not make it out of the 40s Wednesday.  Frost and freeze conditions will be a concern on multiple nights/ mornings this week.

2 3After a warm month (to date) [image 1], Mother Nature will do what she does best- attempt to balance things out the upcoming 7-10 days [image 2].

1 2

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/19/unseasonably-cool-stretch/

Apr 18

Almost Summer-like Today Before Sunday Storms…

Screen Shot 2015-04-18 at 8.02.52 AMHighlights:

  • Lower 80s today!
  • Heavy rain and storms Sunday
  • Cooler, showery Monday
  • MUCH cooler next week

SAT_EUS_WVENH_ANIThis morning’s water vapor image, courtesy of Weathertap.com, shows the big swirl over the CO Rockies.  This will continue to move slowly east over the next couple of days.  Surface low pressure will organize over the lower MS Valley tonight and move north into Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening.  After a beautiful Saturday, clouds will increase tonight and widespread rain and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday morning.  With a deep Gulf connection, expect heavy rainfall, as well.  Much cooler air will then take over next week- jackets will be needed!

Before the rain and storms move in Sunday, be sure to enjoy the weather today- lots of sunshine and lower 80s!

hrrr_t2m_max_indy_12Forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, shows the wet and stormy Sunday ahead.  Rain will push north through early and mid morning Sunday, continuing into the evening.

hires_ref_indy_32 hires_ref_indy_37 hires_ref_indy_40An average of 1″ to 1.5″ of rain is likely, with isolated heavier totals Sunday.  The model breakdown is below.

The Canadian shows the least amount of rain, with 0.50″ – 0.75″ through central IN.

GEMTotThe GFS paints 1.2″ of rain through central IN, with a “ribbon” of enhanced rainfall along the IN/ IL state line.

GFSTotThe high resolution NAM places emphasis on central and eastern portions of the state, including 1.5″ to 2″ amounts.

NAMTotThe RGEM shows a similar story to the high resolution NAM (above) with 1.5″ to 2″ through central IN.

RGEMTot

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/18/almost-summer-like-today-before-sunday-storms/

Apr 17

Warm Now, But Cooler Times Loom…

Screen Shot 2015-04-17 at 7.28.41 AMHighlights:

  • Early morning dense fog
  • Warm and dry close to the week
  • Wet and stormy second half of the weekend
  • Much cooler next week
  • 7-Day model average precipitation totals range from 1″ to 1.5″, with locally heavier totals

SAT_EUS_IR4ENH_ANIThe infrared satellite this morning, courtesy of Weathertap.com, is showing a significant storm system dumping major snows along the CO Front Range.  Additionally, later today, this storm system will help spawn a severe weather outbreak across eastern CO, NE, and KS.

Locally, we have no weather worries after we rid ourselves of the dense fog currently in place across central Indiana.  Once the fog burns off it’s nothing but sunshine and warmth and an absolute ideal close to the work week and open to the weekend.  Highs today (image 1) will reach the lower to middle 70s and we forecast highs Saturday in the upper 70s (image 2), both courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

hires_t2m_max_indy_5

hires_t2m_max_indy_12Things will begin to transition to stormy times for the second half of the weekend as a “piece” of that big Rocky Mountain storm system breaks away and helps develop a new surface low over the MS River Valley.  This low pressure system will ride into the Ohio Valley and provide widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday.

Here’s a look at the 2p forecast radar Sunday, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.

hires_ref_indy_61The Storm Prediction Center has outlined far southern portions of the state for a Slight Risk of severe weather Sunday.

day3otlk_0730As we turn our attention to next week, unseasonably cool air will engulf a large portion of the east.  Reinforcing chilly air will push in later next week, after the first surge of chill arrives Monday night/ Tuesday.

D4

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/17/warm-now-but-cooler-times-loom/

Apr 16

Warm Close To The Week…

Screen Shot 2015-04-16 at 7.25.29 AMWarm And Dry To Close The Week; MUCH Cooler Next Week…After a wet and noisy night for some, we can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm really at any time today, particularly across southeastern parts of the state.  However, most of the day will be dry.

Drier air will win out tonight and set the stage for a beautiful and warm close to the week.  Both Friday and Saturday look to offer lots of sunshine and well above normal warmth!  Get out and enjoy, friends!

A cold front will move into the region Sunday into Monday with widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Some of these storms may be strong.  Stay tuned.

The story next week will be one that’s MUCH cooler.  The weather pattern will shift in rather drastic fashion to wrap up the month.  Gone will be the warm southwesterly air flow we’ve come to enjoy most of the month and in it’s place will be a significant trough and associated northwest flow.  As such, we can expect multiple surges of cooler than normal air during the last 7-10 days of the month.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.00″ – 1.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/16/warm-close-to-the-week/

Apr 14

Weekend Questions…

Screen Shot 2015-04-14 at 9.38.13 PMNot As Bad As It May Look…Most of the day Wednesday will feature dry conditions and pleasant temperatures.  Moisture will stream in from the south Wednesday evening and nighttime showers will develop across central Indiana, continuing into Thursday (though we can also expect several dry hours).

Friday will also feature mostly dry conditions, but we’ll maintain a mention of a widely scattered shower.  Overall, increasing sunshine and a southerly air flow will help boost temperatures into the lower 70s Friday.

The weekend features lots of questions as two of our more trusted computer models are in totally different camps as of this evening.  The European suggests dry and warm conditions (a great weekend, weather-wise) will rule; however, the GFS model is more unsettled and cooler.  For now we’ll take a blend of the two, leaning more towards the GFS due to better run-to-run consistency.  Stay tuned as updates will be required.

Cooler air will become the story as we open next week and jackets may be needed Tuesday with a gusty northwest breeze.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/14/weekend-questions/

Apr 12

Nice Close To The Weekend…

Screen Shot 2015-04-12 at 10.07.58 AMWrapping Up The Weekend On A Nice Note…Look for lots of sunshine to start the day before mid and high level cloudiness slowly increase during the second half of the day.  It’ll be a warm afternoon as highs approach 70 degrees.

Moisture will increase ahead of a cold front that will sweep through central Indiana Monday afternoon/ evening.  Some of the shorter term forecast models are hinting at a thin line of thunderstorms preceding the frontal passage Monday afternoon.

We’re back to dry and pleasant conditions Tuesday and Wednesday, but the dry times won’t last.  A rather unsettled pattern appears to lie ahead late week and heading into next weekend. There’s considerable inconsistencies with run to run output from our computer models, so the forecast confidence during the aforementioned period is lower than normal.  Stay tuned.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.75″ – 1.25″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/12/nice-close-to-the-weekend/

Apr 11

Sun-Filled Weekend; Rain Returns Monday…

Screen Shot 2015-04-11 at 8.01.05 AMWell Deserved Sunshine…After a week of storms and rain, this forecast should be music to the ears of most Hoosiers.  We forecast both today and Sunday to offer up plentiful sunshine and very pleasant temperatures.  Get out there and enjoy it!

Moisture increases Monday and we’ll introduce showers into the forecast as a southerly flow takes hold in advance of a weak cold front.

Mid week should feature drier conditions before a stronger storm system provides a wet end to the week, complete with thunderstorms Thursday and cooler, more showery weather Friday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.75″ – 1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/11/sun-filled-weekend-rain-returns-monday/

Apr 08

Severe Weather Thursday; Nice Weekend Coming…

Screen Shot 2015-04-08 at 9.13.14 PMStay Weather Aware…As we type this central Indiana is enjoying a brief lull in what’s been a rather active day, complete with strong to severe thunderstorms.  Latest scans of our short term forecast models suggest the quiet times don’t last long as more thunderstorms rumble into central Indiana during the overnight hours.  Hail, vivid lightning, and additional flooding is possible with overnight/ early Thursday morning storms.

Attention then shifts to the possibility of a rather significant severe weather outbreak Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, particularly if we get rid of morning convection and cloud debris.  Tonight’s data would suggest we do clear things out Thursday afternoon and this would add “fuel to the fire” for potential severe weather Thursday night.  All modes of severe weather are in play Thursday night, including large hail, damaging straight line winds, and tornadoes.  Flash flooding will also remain a concern as some areas have accumulated more than 3″ of rain today alone.

The cold front and associated surface low responsible for Thursday’s severe weather will sweep the state Friday and usher in a much cooler and breezy regime Friday evening that will continue into Saturday.  Sunshine returns in full force Saturday and Sunday.  Perfect timing, huh?!

Enjoy that sunshine and calmer times of the weekend as rainy and stormy conditions return quickly early next week.  All-in-all, the overall theme remains a warm, wet, and stormy one.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.50″ – 3.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/08/severe-weather-thursday-nice-weekend-coming/

Apr 07

Warm And Stormy…

Screen Shot 2015-04-07 at 7.46.54 AMKeep The Rain Gear Handy…A stationary boundary remains draped across the Ohio Valley and will serve as the focal point for scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.  Some of the storms may be strong and include torrential downpours.  That said, there will be many dry hours, as well.

We shift our focus to the chance of severe weather Thursday as surface low pressure moves into the Great Lakes and swings a cold front into a warm, humid, and relatively unstable air mass locally.  As of now, damaging straight line winds and large hail are the biggest concerns, but there’s also the chance of a tornado.  Stay tuned.

After an early shower Friday, we’ll clear things out nicely to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  Friday will be much cooler, but that April sun will help temperatures recover quickly Saturday.  Most of Sunday will be dry, but we’ll introduce showers Sunday evening.  This will set up a stormy open to next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″ – 2.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/07/warm-and-stormy/

Apr 04

Beautiful Weekend; Stormy Week Upcoming…

Screen Shot 2015-04-04 at 11.33.18 AMBeautiful Weather This Weekend Before A Stormy Week…Timing couldn’t be more perfect!  Between the Final Four festivities today and Easter Sunday, weather conditions simply couldn’t be any better!

We’ll begin to reverse things in a rather marked fashion early next week as moisture increases.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be with us throughout the week, particularly Tuesday through Thursday.  Waves of stronger storms and heavy rain can be expected.

Championship Monday will feature mostly dry conditions, but clouds will be on the increase and light showers will arrive towards afternoon/ evening.

The focal point for the most significant rain and storms will center itself Tuesday through Thursday and we’ll be more detailed around any severe potential and timing as we get closer.  For now, get outside and enjoy this weather!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″ – 2.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/04/04/beautiful-weekend-stormy-week-upcoming/

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