Category: 7-Day Outlook

Jan 20

Snowy Morning…

Screen Shot 2016-01-20 at 7.43.03 AMHighlights:

  • Snowy morning
  • Major winter storm impacts the southern Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic
  • Dry, cold weekend in store

Snowy Morning; Next Winter Storm Shifts South…This morning’s snow “behaved” as planned with a quick thumping across a large portion of central IN.  A quick scan of accumulation reports into the office this morning indicate amounts, on average, right around 2″ (some a bit more, some a little less).  We’ll recap later this evening, with an overlay of our snowfall forecast map.  Due to the timing of this event, this morning’s commute is a nightmare, as expected.

As we look ahead, the major winter storm (crippling for some) late week is trending further and further south.  Now, instead of the initial low tracking through the TN Valley (which would’ve argued for a reflection of the low up west of the mountains), it appears to stay so far south that it tracks along the northern Gulf states before the primary low takes over and delivers the “snowy goods” to our friends from the east TN mountains north and east.  By the way, this will be a monster event for the southern Appalachians (yard stick will be needed to measure the final product).  Back here on the home front, we’ll forecast a dry, cold stretch with a blustery Friday (east winds gusting 20-30 MPH).

Our next weather maker of note will come early next week.  More on that as we draw closer.

Safe travels and happy snow to all! 🙂

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/snowy-morning/

Jan 18

Frigid Day; Watching Accumulating Snow Threat Tomorrow Night…

Screen Shot 2016-01-18 at 8.05.46 AMHighlights:

  • Frigid day
  • Accumulating snow Tuesday night-Wednesday
  • Late week winter storm threat south
  • Active pattern continues next weekend

Bitterly Cold With Developing Snow Tuesday Night…It’s a bright, but frigid start to the day with mostly sunny skies in place.  Temperatures are below zero for many this morning and ‘chills have dipped to as low as 20 below.  If you have to be out today, layer up and limit time outdoors.

Clouds will quickly be on the increase Tuesday afternoon and snow will develop Tuesday night, continuing into Wednesday morning.  Model data suggests snow may come down at a good clip at times early Wednesday morning. The initial snowfall map (below) places our best idea on accumulation for now.  As we always say, this should be used as guidance at this distance and we’ll have to fine tune as we move forward.

The consensus of nearly all model data shifts our late week winter storm further south overnight.  It’s too early to write this storm off, but we’ll trend our forecast drier in the Thursday-Friday time frame for now (that blocking high to our north can, at times, be a blessing and a curse ;-)).  Another chance of snow rumbles in late in the weekend.

InitialCall11912016event

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/frigid-day-watching-accumulating-snow-threat-tomorrow-night/

Jan 17

Active Wintry Week Ahead…

Screen Shot 2016-01-17 at 10.00.00 AMHighlights: 

  • Frigid stretch of weather
  • Accumulating snow mid week
  • Winter storm potential late week

Busy Winter Pattern…Frigid air is helping usher in the new week and this morning’s snow bursts are setting the tone for potentially “more important” snow events in the days to come.

First things first though and that’s today.  Morning snow showers and heavier squalls will diminish and give way to an absolutely bitter feel for the afternoon.  Highs today took place at midnight and will continue to plummet through the day.  We’ll be in the single digits by dinner.  Wind chill values tonight and Monday will reach 20 degrees below zero.  Ouch!

All eyes will then shift to an approaching mid week snow maker and this should be a “plowable” event for most.  We expect a swath of snow to roll through central IN late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Just as soon as the mid week snow maker moves out, we’ll have to turn our attention to late week.  There are many questions regarding the northward extent of snow with this storm, but the overall set-up from this distance has to put a smile on the faces of Ohio Valley snow lovers.  The blocking high to the north will be sufficient to supply cold air at the surface as moisture is supplied from the Gulf of Mexico, but it will limit how far north the low will track.  Is this an Ohio Valley or TN Valley event?  Ensemble data at the moment leads us to believe this will track far enough north to impact our region.  We’ll have to sort through additional details in the coming days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-wintry-week-ahead/

Jan 16

Bitter Week Ahead; What About Snow Chances?

January to date is running 2 degrees above normal at IND.  That number will drop significantly this week with the punch of arctic air inbound.

ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_anom

After a snowy week last week, we’ll attempt to make another run this week.  Despite model inconsistencies, we focus on Sunday morning, Tuesday night-Wednesday morning, and late week for accumulating snow prospects.  More on that in a minute.

Note the difference in snow cover, locally, when compared to this time last year.  Can we get things to look similar to image 2 below come late week?  We’re on the playing field, at the very least.

1

2The arctic surge of bitter air will blast into central IN Sunday morning late into the afternoon. Temperatures will be on the plunge, and reach the single digits come evening.  Wind chill values will go below zero Sunday afternoon.

Forecast temperatures around lunchtime Sunday. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures around lunchtime Sunday. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures Sunday evening. Source: Weatherbell.com

Forecast temperatures Sunday evening. Source: Weatherbell.com.

A blast of snow showers and embedded squalls will accompany the arctic surge Sunday morning and may accumulate up to an inch in spots.  Strong and gusty winds will create brief whiteout conditions from time to time.

1We eye the Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame for the next opportunity of accumulating snow.  A “plowable” snow may be in the works during this time frame and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.

Wednesday

Wednesday morning as depicted by the 12z GFS. Source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Things remain very active moving forward.  While the model specifics differ significantly at this juncture (no surprise ;-)), it’s important to look at the overall picture and see the potential of a fairly widespread winter event late next week.f144ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-AYqVLj

Stay tuned.  There are significant differences between the potential of this event and the reality of the past several more significant precipitation makers.  – Namely a blocking cold high to the north as the more significant moisture arrives.  This will help supply the cold and limit the northward track to a point.  Is it a mostly snow event or do we get into the wintry mix potential?   Many questions will have to be answered in the days ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/bitter-week-ahead-what-about-snow-chances/

Jan 15

Cold Weather Gear Required Moving Forward…

Screen Shot 2016-01-15 at 8.23.56 AMHighlights:

  • Rain develops today
  • Frigid air awaits
  • Tracking snow makers

Turning Wet Today; Big Cold Coming…It’s a mild start to our Friday, but overcast skies will give way to developing showers late morning, continuing through the afternoon hours.  Colder air will push in tonight and may lead to a transition to wet snow before precipitation ends.  Forecast models are struggling on handling the arrival of cold air and this will once again be a “now-cast” type situation as we go into the evening hours.  When compared to last Saturday night’s event, this isn’t nearly as significant from a total precipitation standpoint, including snow totals.

Saturday will be a day where we’re in between storm systems.  Morning flurries will be possible, but we continue to eye an arctic wave pushing into the area Sunday.  Moisture will be limited, but with very cold air moving in, it won’t take much to “fluff up” a quick inch.  The bigger deal will be strong and gusty winds and bitterly cold air.

Forecast models have really been struggling as of late and our overall confidence on how they handle things the middle of next week is quite low at the moment.  That said, Wednesday-Thursday will require our attention moving forward for the prospects of accumulating snow.  Another storm awaits late next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/cold-weather-gear-required-moving-forward/