During wholesale pattern transitions, operational data will struggle at times, including some wild run-to-run swings. Earlier this week, the European wanted to put early next week in the lower 50s. At the same time, the GFS suggested lower single digits. Precisely, it was a difference of 46° between the two models for a high?! 🙂
We note the teleconnections (in particular, the EPO) are aligning in a manner conducive for widespread cold.
The GEFS might be a bit quick on dropping the arctic hammer, but the consistency of the model is impressive. Meanwhile, the European (even it’s ensemble data) has been much less consistent and has really been struggling the past couple of winters, overall, as a whole.
While we can argue as to just how cold it’ll get through the early part of February, the overwhelming message is that a prolonged colder than normal pattern will develop during this time period.
Let’s also keep in mind that the initial cold onslaught is coming in the face of the MJO still rumbling through the warm phases. We note the European is consistently having to correct towards a more “amped up” MJO- swinging into the cold phases as we approach mid-month. And it’s mid-February that continues to have us concerned for the potential of truly nasty, severe cold.
As for snow, it’ll come in this pattern. Again, don’t get caught up in the operational output, but understand that the pattern over the upcoming 7-10 days favors numerous fast-moving snow systems. While most of these will be light, we’ll have to keep a close eye on things as the potential exists for one of these waves to spin up a moderate event.
As we look ahead to Week 2, the potential is there for a more widespread significant phased interior threat prior to the dumping of the bitterly cold air for mid-month.
As it is, both the GEFS and EPS “mean” paint a bullish signal for piling snow up over the next couple weeks…
