Tropical Storm Barry will make landfall today along the central LA coast as a strong tropical storm or hurricane (further strengthening is likely before making landfall later today). Gusts along the LA coast already this morning have reached 81 MPH. Once inland, the biggest concern with Barry’s remnants will come from a heavy rain and flooding situation. The heaviest rainfall will fall to the east of the center of circulation, encompassing central and eastern LA, western MS, eastern AR, and into western TN.
While Barry’s moisture will get into central Indiana early next week, we continue to believe the steady, heavier rainfall will remain across southern portions of the state. Overall, we don’t see any reason to alter our ongoing idea of where the heaviest axis of rain will set up shop. Tuesday into Wednesday appears to be the wettest period for the Ohio Valley from Barry. It’s possible a good portion of southern IN into central and southern OH receives 1″ to 2″ of rain with locally heavier totals during this time period. Understanding we’re talking about tropical remnants still roughly 72-84 hours away, some additional tweaking is likely to the forecast rainfall numbers.
Once Barry’s remnants exit to the east, the heat will be the big story for the 2nd half of the work week and into next weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows in the middle 70s can be expected as a ridge of high pressure expands over the region.
As we look beyond next week, the pattern should promote the axis of the ridge retrograding west. This would put the Ohio Valley in a more active northwest upper air flow, resulting in a backing off of the extreme heat and better rain/ storm chances as we progress through the last week of the month.
More later this afternoon with our video update! Enjoy your Saturday morning, friends.