Nov 11
Updated 11.11.22 @ 7:46a
As we “set the stage” over the upcoming week, we must start with the strong cold front that will push east across the state this afternoon. Temperatures will begin to fall by mid to late afternoon before “dropping off the cliff” tonight. 🙂 I think we’ll be hard pressed to experience temperatures anywhere close to the relative mild air that we’re still enjoying the morning, at least through Thanksgiving.
This is all part of the leading edge of a significantly colder pattern moving east, and this is a pattern that has staying power. Considering how warm we’ve been to open November, it’ll come as a shock to some.
Perhaps more interesting to some are the prospects of wintry precipitation. There’s growing indication that the primary storm track may, indeed, take a favorable position for early wintry “fun and games” across the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana over the course of the next couple weeks as a whole.
The first feature is one that has a looks of an “over-achiever” and it’ll arrive as early as tomorrow morning. This is thanks to a couple features: a surface wave trailing the base of an eastward progressing trough, along with a piece of upper level energy diving southeast across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. The 2 features will allow an expanding area of snow to blossom across the state (focusing on central and eastern Indiana) tomorrow morning and this should accumulate in spots, especially on grassy areas: 0.50” to 1.5”. Despite relatively warm ground temperatures, the expected timing of the snowfall and intensity should be enough to generate the aforementioned accumulation numbers for places like Indianapolis, Muncie, Greensburg, and surrounding areas.
“System snow” will then be followed by wind-whipped scattered lake-enhanced snow showers Saturday evening. These will be most numerous across northern IN but a few will sneak into central and southern IN as well.
If this isn’t enough for you snow lovers out there, keep an eye on 2 systems next week: Tuesday into Wednesday and again late next weekend.
I still don’t think modeling has come around to the correct idea of handling the southern stream energy associated with the Tuesday system. While there isn’t any reason to get overly cute with this one from this distance, we’ll want to keep close attention for the chance of additional accumulating snow potential Tuesday.
Finally, at least from this distance, it appears as if there may be some additional chances of wintry precipitation Thanksgiving week.
Not a bad pattern by November standards, huh? That is at least if you’re a winter weather fan…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/11/mean-early-winter-pattern-showing-itself-over-the-next-couple-weeks/
Nov 10
Updated 11.10.22 @ 9:18a
After a warm open to November, things are progressing to plan as our much anticipated mid month shift to cold takes place.
A quick glance at the teleconnections over the course of the next couple weeks (remember, we still lean heaviest on the PNA and EPO at this time of the year) reveals agreement in the short term of the cold shift but note movement back towards neutral towards the end of the period.
While this may give reason for panic to some, we note the MJO scheduled to move out of Phase 8 (currently), whip across the “null” phase before moving into textbook phases for eastern cold for late November (Phases 5-6).
The analogs for such phases this time of year will make winter weather fans salivate.
Despite this setup laid out above, the new JMA Weeklies want none of my idea of a cold start to December. Despite the chilly look Weeks 1-2, the model rolls right into an eastern ridge by early December. It’s safe to say as of now, I remain in the cold camp, especially given what the MJO amplitude should provide as we rumble into the last month of the year. Nonetheless, it’s less than ideal to see a normally trusted model in such disagreement and we’ll have to keep an eye on trends over the course of the next couple weeks…
Perhaps the model is seeing a transitional move through Phase 7? That would allow a milder pattern in briefly, but again I would reiterate the look of what should be an amplified MJO as we move into December and a jaunt through Phase 8, 1, and 2 is likely in my opinion. Just for fun, this is what those phases provide.
One way or another, we have a lot of work (and fun) ahead. My hunch tells me any long range (what would currently be Week 4 in particular) data will be forced to cool, and perhaps significantly so, as time draws closer.
In the meantime, don’t sleep on next week. There should be at least one attempt for some sort of winter weather maker into the Ohio Valley, if not two.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/10/long-range-outlook-jab-jab-boom/
Nov 10
Updated 11.10.22 @ 7:24a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/10/video-transition-to-a-colder-pattern-rolls-in/
Nov 09
Updated 11.09.22 @ 7:42a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/09/video-enjoy-2-more-days-of-warmth-pattern-turns-more-winter-like-over-the-weekend-and-into-next-week/
Nov 08
Updated 11.08.22 @ 6:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/08/video-warm-weather-party-comes-to-a-crashing-end-this-weekend-all-eyes-on-nicole/
Nov 07
Updated 11.07.22 @ 7:03a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/07/video-nicole-makes-landfall-along-the-eastern-fl-peninsula-midweek-much-colder-pattern-emerges-over-the-weekend/
Nov 06
Updated 11.06.22 @ 10:47a
“Wintry” is certainly not a word that comes to mind when describing the first week of November ‘22. Indianapolis is running a whopping 11.4° above normal month to date.
The upcoming several days will feature additional well above normal warmth, including highs in the mid 60s to around 70°. The reasons behind the warmth have been well advertised between the MJO and teleconnections. This is all part and parcel to the SST configuration, including the 3rd consecutive La Niña fall.
But things are changing now and arriving right on schedule. It’s wild, really, when you think of the ability to find answers to the future (upcoming pattern evolution) by looking back at the past.
We note the teleconnections are now beginning to align in a manner that will drive colder than normal conditions east. The MJO also has a look that will try and circle back into Phase 6 mid to late month. To add to the complexity of the pattern transition, a late season hurricane will likely hit the Florida peninsula mid to late week before recurving up the eastern seaboard.
A cold front will blow through the state Friday and while it’ll likely be moisture starved, unlike this past front, there will be a sharp temperature drop behind the frontal passage over the weekend.
How about a week from today highs are only in the mid-upper 30s and lows may dip into the upper 10s and lower 20s. Indications are that the overall colder than normal regime will have staying power, too. While wholesale pattern transitions can be finicky at the onset, there’s a belief on this front that the overall regime will feature more sustainable cold and eventually opportunities for wintry precipitation as we close November and open up December.
There’s no change to the ideas here of the bulk of the holiday season this year (Thanksgiving to New Years) providing above normal snowfall and below normal temperatures. At the very least, there should be a lot of “fun and games” ahead over the upcoming weeks.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/06/the-transition-to-winter/
Nov 05
Updated 11.05.22 @ 9:22a
I. Showers will scoot east of the region by late morning but we’re not done with the rain just yet. A skinny line of storms will likely blow across the state during the early to mid afternoon hours.
The other big story today will, of course, be the wind, including wind gusts around of 50-60 MPH. Strongest winds will come between 12p and 5p before diminishing this evening. Needless to say, batten down the hatches!
II. High pressure will supply an extended period of quiet weather through the bulk of the week ahead but there are changes on the horizon.
Our next cold front will blow into town Thursday night or Friday morning. As of now, it looks like it’ll be moisture starved but unlike this current system, the air behind the frontal passage will be drastically colder. How do highs in the lower 40s and lows in the lower 20s sound next weekend?
III. Next week’s front will be a “game changer” in that it will likely be the first attempt at bringing a more sustained colder pattern east. Note the latest European ensemble guidance below for the 10-15 day period. Needless to say, warmth is, indeed, on borrowed time…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/05/saturday-morning-rambles-wind-the-big-story-today-warmth-on-borrowed-time/
Nov 04
Updated 11.04.22 @ 7:15a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/04/video-wet-windy-open-to-the-weekend-followed-by-a-quiet-mild-week-of-weather/
Nov 03
Updated 11.03.22 @ 9:43
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/11/03/lr-update-alignment-for-a-wintry-stretch-through-the-holiday-season/