Busy Weather Week; Ice Storm Potential Friday Into The Weekend…
Highlights:
- Late night light freezing rain develops
- Milder and wet through mid week
- Ice storm potential on the rise late week
Feeling Downright Balmy Out…Temperatures this morning (writing this at 7a) are running close to 20 degrees above where we were this exact time Sunday. 20 degrees has never felt so warm! 🙂 This moderating trend will continue into mid week, including temperatures that approach 60 Thursday. That said, we have a mini “speed bump” to go over tonight and that’s the opportunity for light freezing rain late tonight into the wee morning hours Tuesday. Temperatures should go above freezing just before the morning rush Tuesday, but plan to leave additional time as slick spots may remain. Once we clear the “speed bump,” it’s off to the races in the temperature department through mid week: around 50 Tuesday afternoon and around 60 by Thursday (that’s a late night high Wednesday in the upper 50s). Periods of showers will come with the milder air, centered on Tuesday and late Wednesday into Thursday.
Unfortunately, the milder times don’t last long and we still forecast “trouble” late in the week. The set-up remains unchanged as a big, sprawling arctic high pushes into Wisconsin Friday. This will help “shove” the arctic front through Indiana before stalling along the Ohio River Friday into Saturday. As this is happening, ripples of energy will help ignite periods of precipitation Friday into the weekend. With cold air locked in at the surface, we expect the potential of a rather prolonged period of freezing rain developing late Friday and continuing into the weekend. We still have time for things to change, but from this distance, the predominant precipitation type, unfortunately, appears to be freezing rain. Stay tuned as this could be a high impact event.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.25″
2.) Expanding Snowpack: 65.4% of the country is covered in snow this morning. The cold, arctic high suppressed the winter storm threat south as we alluded to in previous posts. Places across the Deep South that aren’t used to wintry precipitation are waking up to snowy and icy conditions this morning, including MS, AL, GA, SC, and into the Mid Atlantic. Heavier snowfall accumulated across east TN, including 5″-8″ in the high country. Heavy snow also fell through western and central NC and Blizzard Warnings are up in rare areas including VA Beach this morning.
3.) Moderating Temperatures: Our air flow will back around to the southwest and this will help temperatures begin to moderate early next week (around freezing Monday and all the way to around 50 Tuesday). As the moderating trend gets underway, we may have to deal with a brief period of freezing drizzle/ freezing rain Monday evening.
4.) Rainy Midweek: A more significant surge of moisture will arrive midweek and result in periods of moderate to heavy rain Wednesday PM into Thursday. Potential is present for 1″+ during this timeframe.
5.) Weekend Wintry “Fun And Games?” A tremendous battle will take place next weekend between a strong and sprawling arctic high pressure system and the southeast ridge. In between it’ll be fascinating to watch things unfold, and as you’d imagine, that includes Indiana. Despite the southeast ridge flexing it’s muscle, the concern here is that the shallow dense arctic air will “ooze” south and present an icy set-up for portions of the Ohio Valley and Mid West for the weekend. We still have some time to watch this, but the potential of significant icing is very much present for some and this will require a close eye through the week.
