Dec 26
Updated 12.26.22 @ 9:40a
It’s certainly no secret that a big thaw is ahead. As we set the bar with this current cold spell, we’ll set the bar for the upcoming period of warmth: minimum of (2) days of highs of 60°, or greater, between Jan. 1 and Jan. 5. It’s another case of a significant thaw following a bitter blast of arctic air. In researching classic arctic outbreaks of the past, this happens many more times than not.
In any event, we continue to see the relatively mild and wet pattern carrying us through the first week of January.
But seeds are already being planted for a renewed wintry spell. In particular, the teleconnections are bullish on cold returning around, or just after, Jan. 10. We note the longer range charts keep these pattern drivers in a favorable position for more of a prolonged period of cold, as well:
Forecasters have to love the overall alignment as this helps build medium to longer range confidence in the overall pattern progression.
Then we add in the MJO rumbling into Phase 7 for early January. While there will be a bit of a lag, this is another signal for a cold look across the eastern portion of the country, especially by that Jan. 10 time frame.
While I can’t say we’ll see another arctic shot to the magnitude of this current frigid regime, I am more confident than normal from this distance in the period that runs from Jan. 10 through Jan. 25 being colder than normal as a whole. I would anticipate the longer range modeling (Weeklies, in particular) becoming increasingly cold with updates this week during that aforementioned period.
More updates to come as we rumble through this holiday week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/26/significant-thaw-ahead-but-bullish-on-winters-return/
Dec 26
Updated 12.26.22 @ 8:23a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/26/video-light-snow-today-warmer-wetter-pattern-takes-hold-to-open-the-new-year/
Dec 25
Updated 12.25.22 @ 8:11a
From our family to yours, here’s wishing you a blessed and very merry Christmas!
Our Christmas morning is getting off to another frigid start, with all of the immediate region featuring temperatures just above the 0° mark (wind chill values remain well below zero).
All but far northeastern IN is at least seeing sunshine this morning. We can thank that lake influence for keeping our northeastern neighbors overcast this morning.
53% of the country is enjoying a White Christmas. That’s the most since back in ’09 when 63% of the country was snow covered on Christmas Day.
Speaking of snow, our next snow maker will arrive overnight and remain with us through our Monday. In general, we anticipate 1″ to 2″ of snow with this system with a couple of 3″ reports. While certainly not a heavy snow event, expect slick travel Monday thanks to the recent frigid stretch of temperatures. Most persistent snow will likely fall from late morning into the early afternoon across central Indiana.
A couple of days of uneventful weather will follow our snow maker. Sunshine will return Tuesday. While still cold, temperatures will moderate close to the freezing mark for daytime highs.
Our airflow will then back around to the southwest Wednesday and this will be the beginning of a significant period of moderation. “Zoom, zoom, up and away” is how we’ll label the temperature regime heading into next weekend, including New Year’s Eve with highs into the lower 60s for many. Talk about another infamous “snap back” warm-up following an arctic intrusion. (Don’t worry winter weather fans, we’re already eyeing the return of our next cold, snow pattern by mid-January).
The trade off to the warmer weather? An extended period of gloom. Clouds will increase Wednesday and eventually give way to drizzle that will turn into periods of rain Thursday through next weekend. The heaviest rain will likely fall New Year’s Eve as an area of low pressure lifts north into the western Great Lakes.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/25/merry-christmas-to-all-another-accumulating-snow-event-on-deck-followed-by-a-significant-warm-up-as-we-close-out-the-year/
Dec 24
Updated 12.24.22 @ 8:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/24/video-another-snow-maker-on-deck-warmer-wetter-pattern-evolves-next-week/
Dec 23
Updated 12.23.22 @ 7:58a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/23/video-long-range-update-and-short-term-look-at-our-next-snow-maker/
Dec 22
Updated 12.22.22 @ 5:54p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/22/video-blizzard-conditions-into-friday-another-snow-maker-arrives-just-after-christmas/
Dec 22
Updated 12.22.22 @ 7:40a
Type: Severe Winter Weather
What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures
When: Late this afternoon through Christmas Eve
Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).
Wind: NW 15-25 MPH, shifting to the WSW and increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Severe
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.
Summary: Light rain is overspreading central Indiana this morning as moisture is slowly pulled northward ahead of the approaching arctic cold front. That arctic front is still expected to plow across the state this afternoon (just after lunchtime across western IN, between 3p and 4p for Indianapolis, and by 7p – 8p for our far eastern IN neighbors). Once the front hits, you’ll notice a dramatic wind shift to the northwest and increase to 20-30 MPH with higher gusts, along with a temperature plummet. We’ll likely see temperatures fall more than 20° in less than 90 minutes once the arctic front passes.
As all of this is taking shape, a wave of low pressure will move from southwest IN late afternoon into eastern MI by Friday morning. Long time Hoosiers know that’s a classic track to deposit a nice snowstorm around these parts. Rain will change to snow in the city around, or just after, 4p and we’ll notice the swath of snow growing in overall coverage and intensity as the low pressure system deepens. Periods of heavy snow can be expected at times tonight.
Meanwhile, winds will continue to increase to 25-35 MPH sustained with gusts to 50 MPH tonight, continuing through the day Friday and into the first portion of Christmas Eve morning. These persistent strong winds won’t only potentially lead to power outages, but continuous blowing and drifting issues through the aforementioned period. Blizzard and whiteout conditions will continue at times. Snow removal efforts will likely have to continue into Christmas Eve to account for the severe blowing and drifting on area roadways, especially north-south roadways. While the heavy snow will come to an end early Friday morning, light snow and blowing snow will persist through the day Friday and into early Christmas Eve morning.
Finally, the dangerous cold is going to be a big problem with this multi-faceted winter storm. After we fall to below zero Friday morning, highs on Friday likely won’t make it back much above 0°. Add in the wind and wind chill values of more than 30° below zero can be expected.
Confidence: High
Next Update: This evening (video discussion)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/22/client-brief-use-this-morning-to-finalize-prep-for-blizzard-conditions-and-dangerous-cold-tonight-christmas-eve/
Dec 21
Updated 12.21.22 @ 6:42p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/21/detailed-video-discussion-on-the-blizzard-conditions-ahead-and-the-longer-range-january-pattern-drivers/
Dec 21
Updated 12.21.22 @ 1:31p
Type: Severe Winter Weather
What: Heavy snow, blizzard conditions, dangerously cold temperatures
When: Thursday PM through Christmas Eve
Temperatures: Falling from the upper 30s (Thursday afternoon) to 0° to 10° below zero (Friday morning).
Wind: WSW 15-25 MPH, increasing to 25-40 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH
Blowing/ Drifting: Severe
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.
Summary: Precipitation is anticipated to overspread central IN Thursday morning in the form of a light cold rain. Light rain will continue into the early afternoon hours with temperatures ranging anywhere from the mid to upper 30s. The arctic front will arrive into the city, itself around 4p to 5p and this is when we expect rain to quickly change to snow. As this takes place, surface low pressure is expected to ride northeast from southwest IN into northwester/ north-central Ohio, allowing a blossoming area of more widespread, heavier snow to fall across the region Thursday evening, continuing through the overnight period. To make matters more hazardous, temperatures will fall from the aforementioned mid-upper 30s early afternoon into the single digits by 9p to 10p. The rapid temperature fall will allow any/ all moisture to freeze and further complicate travel with the increasing snowfall rates.
Forecast models this afternoon are split between (2) camps: the weaker and more progressive NAM and European, and the more “revved up” GFS and Canadian guidance. With that said, we’ll lean towards the European/ NAM blend to build our snowfall forecast below (good luck measuring whatever falls ;-)), but will continue to keep a close eye on trends through the evening and tonight. Side note: We’ll have a more detailed video discussion posted this evening that will dive into the very latest data trends with our current storm, look ahead to another snow maker on deck early next week, a significant warm-up, and subsequent return of cold, wintry conditions.
If all of this wasn’t enough, winds will increase in speed and turn gusty through the evening Thursday, continuing into and through the day on Friday, as well as Christmas Eve. Periodic gusts upwards of 40 to 50 MPH will lead to severe blowing and drifting snow, whiteout and blizzard conditions during this period. We strongly advise against traveling Thursday evening through Friday. “Wrap around” lighter snow and snow showers are expected to continue through the day Friday with temperatures struggling to make it much above the 0° mark. Severe blowing and drifting snow and blizzard conditions will continue Friday to combine with the dangerous cold.
The prolonged nature of such strong winds, combined with expected snowfall amounts will continue to lead to hazardous travel through Christmas Eve. Unfortunately, winds aren’t expected to diminish until Christmas morning. By this point, all eyes will be focused on the next snow maker due in here late Christmas night or early Monday in the form of a clipper system.
More on all of this later this evening in our updated video discussion.
Confidence: High
Next Update: By 7p Wednesday (video discussion)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/21/client-brief-dangerous-cold-blizzard-conditions-arrive-thursday-night-into-friday/
Dec 21
Updated 12.21.22 @ 6:40a I. We still have another 24 hours where weather won’t have any sort of impact across central Indiana. Dry conditions will hold through early Thursday morning.…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/12/21/wednesday-morning-notes-on-our-upcoming-winter-storm/