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Thanksgiving Week Opens Cold…

Highlights:

  • Scattered flurries and snow showers Sunday morning
  • Dry for Thanksgiving travels
  • Rather boring week of weather ahead

November Or December?!  A strong cold front is slipping southeast as we type this forecast Saturday afternoon.  This will result in a much colder close to the day, along with wrap around moisture transitioning to wet snow later this evening across central and northern portions of the state.  Sunday will start off with scattered flurries and snow showers before dry conditions quickly return.  It’ll be an unseasonably cold and blustery day.

As folks begin to travel for the upcoming Thanksgiving Day holiday, high pressure will provide an extended period of dry and rather uneventful conditions.  A dry cold front will pass through the state Tuesday and help reinforce the chill for Thanksgiving, itself.  While we’ll notice gusty breezes at times this upcoming week, precipitation will be hard to come by.

Our next threat of precipitation will arrive this time next week as a cold front moves south.  Expect showers Saturday, followed by a wind shift and coldest air of the season by the second half of next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Weekend Of Changes: Storms To Snow…

Highlights:

  • Big changes this weekend
  • Relatively calm Thanksgiving week
  • Chilly Thanksgiving

Storms To Snow This Weekend…An approaching storm system will lead to an active open to the weekend.  Beforehand, thankfully, we’ll close the work week out on a rather quiet note.  The daytime hours will remain dry before moisture begins to return this evening.  An initial round of showers will move across central Indiana (thinking between 8p-9p) before steadier and heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms blow into town Saturday.  A strengthening surface low will move from the central Plains tonight and into the southern Great Lakes Saturday.  This will lead to a briefly milder surge of air Saturday morning into the early afternoon before a cold front sweeps through the state and leads to a sharply colder close to the day.  Right ahead of the cold front, a skinny, but potentially intense, line of thunderstorms will track across central Indiana late Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon.  Damaging wind gusts are possible as this thin line of storms advances across central and southern Indiana.  Winds will then shift around to the northwest and help drive much colder air into the region through the afternoon and evening.  In fact, we’ll turn cold enough to allow precipitation to end as a touch of wet snow Saturday evening.

We’ll wrap up the weekend and kick off Thanksgiving week on a much calmer note.  Chilly high pressure will build in Sunday, allowing sunshine to return, but temperatures will run around 15° below normal.  A dry cold front will pass through the state Tuesday.  With the exception of a wind shift and a few more clouds we really shouldn’t expect much more in the way of “excitement.”  This will allow unseasonably cool air to return for Thanksgiving, itself.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace – Dusting
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″
7-Day Outlook, Christmas/ Thanksgiving, Forecast, Rain, snow, T-storms, Thanksgiving, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy

Digging Deeper As Winter Nears…

Thanksgiving is only a week away (where on earth does time go?!) and more and more folks are asking what we think winter will hold for central Indiana.  In case you missed it earlier this fall, here’s our official Winter Outlook.

We’re continuing to dig in and monitor new data that’s streaming into the office, as well as ocean profiles.  With that said, we wanted to share some of our findings with you this morning with respect to how various ocean regions can impact our weather this winter.

We’re noticing significant changes, particularly in the north Pacific, with the famous “warm blob” emerging (image 1). This is a big factor that aided in persistent cold; wintry weather during the ’13-’14 winter (images 2-3). Notice the difference from last year, too (image 4). This isn’t a full blown cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) yet, but trending in that direction and “ups the ante” for cold, wintry conditions, locally this year.

What makes seasonal forecasting so challenging (and fun :-)) are the multiple features that can impact a forecast.  We’ve talked about the importance of ENSO (various types of Nino and Nina events) in past updates, as well as low solar and QBO.  All of these moving parts and pieces are coming together in a manner that seems to be favoring more of a cold, wintry regime, locally, this year.  Is that us saying another blockbuster 2013-2014 winter awaits?  Absolutely not (there are other differences noted above with the SST configuration).  However, it is suggesting that this winter will be absolutely nothing like the past couple…

Might want to think about getting the snow blower tuned up!

More later today on the short-term.  Make it a great Thursday!

Forecast Discussion, PDO, SST Discussion, Winter Outlook, Winter thoughts...

Multiple Cold Fronts Keep Us Busy…

Highlights:

  • Wet Wednesday
  • 2nd cold front Friday night
  • 3rd cold front arrives Tuesday night

Busy Weather Pattern…Rain is pressing into central Indiana this morning ahead of the first of three cold fronts we’re tracking between now and early Thanksgiving week.  Rain will be most widespread this morning into the early afternoon hours before diminishing mid to late afternoon.  Reinforcing chilly air will blow into town tonight and we’ll be in between storm systems Thursday.

Our second storm system will lead to increasing clouds Friday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms arriving overnight into Saturday morning.  Due to the slower timing of this storm, the late week severe threat has diminished significantly.  Nonetheless, it’ll be a windy afternoon and we’ll notice rising nighttime temperatures Friday as the cold front approaches.  Morning rain will continue Saturday before a sharp transition to much colder conditions with falling daytime temperatures.  We’ll kick off Thanksgiving week on a dry and cold note.

Finally, yet another cold front will approach Tuesday night.  Once this front sweeps through the state, the coldest air of the season will settle into the area just in time for Thanksgiving.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 1.75″
7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Rain, T-storms, Thanksgiving, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy