Jan 24
Updated 01.24.23 @ 6p
Type: Winter Storm
What: Heavy snow and gusty winds
When: Overnight tonight through Wednesday afternoon
Temperatures: Lower 30s
Wind: E 10 to 20 MPH with gusts of 30 MPH across southeastern IN. Shifting to the north Wednesday PM.
Blowing/ Drifting: Minimal due to the wet nature of the snow
Pavement Impacts: Plowing and salting will be required throughout the region.
Summary: Central Indiana remains on deck for a heavy snow storm that will begin late tonight across southern IN, reaching the city itself, between 1a and 2a. Snow will quickly become heavy at times, including rates of over 1″ per hour. Needless to say, area roadways, including primary roads, will quickly become snow covered. Latest guidance is also suggesting embedded convective snow bands (thunder snow is not out of the question) will pivot into the city and surrounding areas, especially just west and north, mid and late morning. This “deformation band” will likely lead to jackpot totals approaching double-digits, and we’ve beefed our snowfall forecast up to account for these bands. “System” snow will end from southwest to northeast as we progress through the afternoon. We’ll then await on upper level energy to deliver additional light to moderate snow at times Thursday (additional light accumulation can be expected). Buckle up, there’s additional winter weather to follow…
Confidence: High
Next Update: 7:30a Wed.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/24/client-brief-heavy-snow-storm-rolls-into-town-overnight/
Jan 24
Updated 01.24.23 @ 7:45a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/24/video-special-pattern-over-the-next-couple-weeks-for-lovers-of-winter-weather/
Jan 23
Updated 01.23.23 @ 6:01p
While not “overly cold” (at least yet), we’re heading into a special pattern for snow/ winter weather lovers. After the leading wave of accumulating snow over the weekend, a much more “meaningful” storm eyes the region late tomorrow night and Wednesday.
In short, we don’t have any changes to our thinking since Saturday on this storm. Snow will lift in here from the south during the overnight and become heavy throughout the morning hours. Snowfall rates will likely approach, if not exceed, 1″ per hour during this time period and will lead to a horrendous morning rush all throughout the region. If you don’t absolutely have to travel, we recommend staying put. Embedded intense snow bands will likely pivot into the city throughout the morning, elevating those snowfall rates and reducing visibility.
Heaviest snow looks to fall in the 2a to 11a timeframe in the city, itself. This will be a wet, heavy (paste-like) snow.
We still don’t see a reason to alter our ongoing snowfall forecast published first to Clients Saturday. This is only for the Tuesday night-Wednesday period and doesn’t account for additional light snow accumulation that will take place Thursday into Friday. Needless to say, there will likely be some across central Indiana that close in on double-digit storm totals by the time all is said and done.
And just as soon as we catch our breath from this storm, attention will turn to the following winter weather makers:
2. Another southern stream system approaches Saturday evening. While milder air will be present (at least aloft), it’s also very possible the modeling will be forced to correct colder after realizing what kind of deep snowpack will likely be deposited across the region midweek. Long story short, we feel this storm system will also be capable of producing a wintry mix of snow and/ or sleet and freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday. Additional details will have to be sorted out in more specific fashion after midweek.
Thereafter, with the negative PNA and negative EPO in place, we’re likely to deal with additional wintry “fun and games” into the middle and latter part of next week, but with this being more than 7 days out, there’s no reason getting too excited from this point with specifics.
Needless to say, we’re in about as good of a position as one could ask for accumulating winter weather events in the medium range period. We’ll just have to take one storm at a time.
Make it a great evening!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/23/monday-evening-notes-on-upcoming-snowstorm-additional-wintry-mischief-on-deck/
Jan 23
Updated 01.23.22 @ 7:48a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/23/video-snow-storm-arrives-overnight-tuesday-active-wintry-pattern-remains-down-the-road/
Jan 22
Updated 01.22.23 @ 8:40a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/22/video-low-pressure-takes-that-textbook-track-for-a-heavy-snow-storm-here-midweek/
Jan 21
Updated 01.21.23 @ 1:54p
The first in a series of accumulating snow events will move in Sunday morning followed by another (heavier) event Tuesday night and Wednesday, with accumulating snow continuing late into the upcoming work week. In short, we don’t have any changes from this morning’s video discussion, but did want to add some specific snow numbers behind our ideas. First thing first and that’s Sunday:
Mostly cloudy skies this evening will lower and thicken during the overnight and snow is expected to break out across western IN between 3a and 4a, reaching the city, itself, between 5a and 6a. Snow should reach peak intensity between 7a and 10a in the city before the steadiest snow pushes east. Lighter snow is expected to continue into the early to mid afternoon hours. Despite marginally cold air and relatively warm surfaces for the time of the year, slick roadways are expected Sunday morning as the snow increases in intensity. Plowing and salting will likely be required before the snow intensity diminishes from west to east Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will be in the lower 30s while the majority of the snow falls so this will be a heavier, wetter snow than the champagne powder we dealt with pre-Christmas. Also a friendly reminder to discredit any sources trying to show you a kuchera snowfall map with this event (or the next event for that matter). These will both likely be much closer, if not even a little less, than 10:1 ratio type snow events- perfect for a snowball fight or building a snowman!
Sunday’s snowfall forecast:
A few lingering early flurries are possible Monday, otherwise the bulk of the daytime Monday and Tuesday should be precipitation free. We may even see some sun work back into the picture during this timeframe. As we push into Tuesday evening, clouds will once again lower and thicken and give way to snow lifting in from the southwest after 11p to midnight.
Low pressure will take a “textbook” track from LA Tuesday evening, west TN Wednesday morning, southeast of the OH river Wednesday afternoon and into Ohio by Wednesday evening. Long time Hoosiers know that spells snowy excitement throughout the region and sure enough, we expect an area-wide moderate to heavy snow event.
Now, this won’t be some sort of blockbuster type storm (remember, this kind of pattern doesn’t support such), but the low will be plenty strong enough to tap into the Gulf moisture and throw it north into an airmass that’s just cold enough to support another wet, heavy (paste-like) snow event Tuesday night through Wednesday. As the storm moves off to the northeast, snow will become a bit more powdery Thursday into Friday morning with some additional light accumulation expected in the colder airmass.
Tuesday night – Wednesday snowfall forecast:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/21/saturday-early-afternoon-thoughts-and-snowfall-forecast-for-sunday-and-tuesday-night-thursday/
Jan 21
Updated 01.21.23 @ 8:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/21/video-tracking-3-accumulating-snow-events-over-the-next-5-7-days/
Jan 20
Updated 01.20.23 @ 7:19a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/20/video-time-to-make-up-for-lost-ground/
Jan 19
Updated 01.19.23 @ 6:15p
Our short-term products will continue to handle the snow threats this weekend and next week. In short, we have no changes to our thoughts on either of those from this morning. The 2nd storm has potential to be something much more significant, but we need to give it another 2-3 days before putting a forecast in concrete, especially this winter.
As for the longer range, a more seasonably cold brand of air is expected as we put a wrap on January, but I’m not willing to go further than that to suggest anything close to “bitter” cold is on deck- certainly given the time of the year. It’ll feel much colder, especially considering just how warm it’s been of late, but I just don’t see anything overly cold on the horizon, compared to normal.
Thereafter, the pattern drivers suggest a warmer than normal pattern will return. “Transitional” anyone? While I can’t say we’re looking at anomalies as great as what we’ve seen so far in January, I do think early and mid February will feature above to well above normal temperatures before colder than normal trends take hold late February and into early March.
The updated European Weeklies mirror the new JMA Weeklies and we see no reason to argue given the movement and overall alignment between the EPO, PNA, NAO, and AO.
Week 2
JMA Weeks 3/4
European Weeklies: Week 3
European Weeklies: Week 4
As we get out towards the latter part of February (around or after the 20th), the teleconnections mentioned above, that will likely promote the relatively warm conditions, will begin to turn around and drive a colder close to the month and open to March. In fact, there are signs the coldest anomalies of the entire winter (compared to average, not in the “absolute” form) will await for this period, and potentially continue into a good chunk of March, especially if the MJO amplitude continues and we add in a negative NAO. (I know, I know- remember that I’m only the messenger).
In the meantime, we also agree with the above normal precipitation pattern painted throughout the upcoming few weeks between the updated Weekly products.
In this active type pattern, despite the lack of bitterly cold arctic air, plenty of snow is likely still yet to fall this winter. In fact, despite the slow start, I wouldn’t be shocked if snowfall amounts end up being pretty dang close to seasonal averages with this type pattern (give or take a few inches). The ultimate irony will be if the bulk of that falls in March…
Much more in the morning around the Sunday and Tuesday-Wednesday snow threats!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/19/february-and-early-march-long-range-discussion/
Jan 19
Updated 01.19.23 @ 7:55a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2023/01/19/video-storms-fire-this-afternoon-detailed-look-at-2-chances-of-snow-next-week/